Busted retailers use bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands • Hacker News Board

Re: Busted retailers use bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands

#181

Post by koolba » Thu, Aug 06, 2020, 10:52 PM UTC

patmcc wrote: post #146

pgrote wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But the moves threaten to upend huge swaths of the real estate market and the half-trillion dollar market for commercial mortgage-backed securities. And? Seriously. We either have to choose to be a market that is somewhat free or not. At this point, the government is choosing winners and losers. It is a repeat of 2008. Oh no, it is too big to fail. Someone will come by with the investment to buy what is left. Perhap…

>>>And? It's a news story, there doesn't have to be any underlying editorial message. Sometimes the news is just "thing happens".

For most publications that time past a long time ago. There’s a limited space so even “presenting the facts” has an editorial bias when you decide which facts you are presenting.

The extreme example of this is a political news site that dedicates its entire site to posting anything that paints its opponents or their positions in a negative light. They can all be “thing happens” stories, but the filter alone gives it an angle.

Re: Busted retailers use bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands

#182

Post by linuxftw » Thu, Aug 06, 2020, 10:53 PM UTC

munk-a wrote: post #139

WanderPanda wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet again the cleanest method would be to not bail out the banks and let the assets be actioned to the highest bidder. Everything else is trading off long term efficient ressource allocation in favor of short term stability.

That would cause a massive economic disruption that could potentially lead to actually bad economic effects. Right now things aren't all sunny and happy for everyone but they can get a lot worse if infrastructural components of the economy start getting eroded - either by being chopped up for vulture capitalists or by having their lending chain & backers divided up similarly. If Fedex & UPS were to be forced to sell…

> If Fedex & UPS were to be forced to sell off package delivery in NYC

Then the market will adjust. If you can't get packages delivered in NYC, you will have to get your goods through some other means. Maybe all of NYC is a bubble. Maybe that many people shouldn't live on a handful of tiny islands, importing their food from the mid west and their goods from China. Maybe everyone's in the wrong place.

Re: Busted retailers use bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands

#183

Post by advertising » Thu, Aug 06, 2020, 10:57 PM UTC

Worked in commercial real estate before the last crash and have a few friends working at big mall companies. Have seen some really cool plans to turn a whole mall into residential with the interior being common areas and parks etc. Some really neat concepts.

Re: Busted retailers use bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands

#184

Post by gremlinsinc » Thu, Aug 06, 2020, 10:57 PM UTC

vkou wrote: post #151

gremlinsinc wrote: post #22

if only the government/bank could've put moratoriums top down, freezing all rent commercial and residential. We'd be in a much better place. Now we have economic collapse, 40 million looming evictions, people will starve, and freeze, or die in a shelter w/ the pandemic. Businesses are failing because they have to meet monthly recurring bills w/ or w/out actual sales receipts. They still need to meet payroll if they'r…

> if only the government/bank could've put moratoriums top down, freezing all rent commercial and residential. We'd be in a much better place. This is exactly what I was saying in March, but everyone was too busy clutching their pearls, concerned about what will happen when pension funds lose a few percentage points of their value. Well, now they are going to lose a few percentage points of their value, in addition t…

I don't see how it becomes a runaway train, esp. w/ the congressional gridlock we have now.

There's no statesmanship, no concern for the people of America, just the top 1%, so they'll probably come out okay.

They won't starve or be on bread-lines. Everyone else though will suffer tremendously.

If all recurring payments just froze...for 1 year. If we locked down like Europe. We'd have had a better time. Now it's a shitfest just waiting. I'm certain some people who are wealthy/powerful see it for what it is, and also already have plans on how to become even richer/more powerful as a result.

Re: Busted retailers use bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands

#185

Post by linuxftw » Thu, Aug 06, 2020, 10:59 PM UTC

true_religion wrote: post #169

DSingularity wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. The backup plan is to screw the people. Slash interest rates, eliminate fractional reserve requirements, and buy corporate bonds and securities.

Banks being bailed out has been national policy in the US since the Great Depression. Previous to that there were 3 national panics and bank runs, and banks were considered juicy targets for robbers as well. The federal insurance program made it so people could trust in banking again. Now I do think that the policy has gone too far. Bank investments should receive any bailout, those are part and parcel of the normal…

You don't have to worry about bank runs if you're not a fractional reserve bank. People were right to not trust banks, banks were fraudsters, loaning out money that wasn't theirs, then when people caught wind of it, the system collapsed.

The real laws should have been 'banks shall not loan out money from a depositor's account' and the problem would have been resolved. Investors could have loaned out money. Insurance could have protected against bank robberies, similar to how any kind of insurance works against theft today.

Re: Busted retailers use bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands

#186

Post by gremlinsinc » Thu, Aug 06, 2020, 11:03 PM UTC

donor20 wrote: post #40

gremlinsinc wrote: post #22

if only the government/bank could've put moratoriums top down, freezing all rent commercial and residential. We'd be in a much better place. Now we have economic collapse, 40 million looming evictions, people will starve, and freeze, or die in a shelter w/ the pandemic. Businesses are failing because they have to meet monthly recurring bills w/ or w/out actual sales receipts. They still need to meet payroll if they'r…

I'm in the group of businesses that got handouts that the business didn't need to survive, but the handouts did mean folks were kept on staff even without work. This paid off big time for us (especially if covid had resolved by September) because we have seen demand pick back up pretty quickly in our space and the staff were ready to go. So if the downward trends had continued we'd have been in good shape and it woul…

The problem is a lot of handouts didn't help anybody. Was just wasted, or bought like 2-3 months max. Now that's over with and there needs to be another, or a better idea...

Alot of these businesses struggle because they have recurring bills: Rent, Mortgage, Utilities, etc... if all recurrables were 'frozen' or allowed 'pay what you want/can afford' then arguably everyone would be on better footing.

E.g. Big bank has ten malls, Malls go to businesses and ask for rent, J.C. Penny's is like we can only pay 10%. Mall goes back to Big Bank and says our customers can only pay 10% each, so that's all we can pay. Bank's like sure w/e it's a crisis.

Utitility companies, etc. same thing.

Obviously there's other costs of business, but that would save a lot of the issues. Do the same of course for residential/renters as well, cause everybody is in the same boat. Then we'd need less stimulus $$.

In other words try to make sure everyone's minimum (got the roof over my head) is met, and this would've been a good way to do that.

Re: Busted retailers use bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands

#187

Post by methodin » Thu, Aug 06, 2020, 11:06 PM UTC

dfxm12 wrote: post #120

methodin wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I should have qualified that KOP was the largest mall I knew of which is why I called it out. I did forget about Springfield mall which is still alive I assume. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Promenade_at_Granite_Run is turning into a classic shopping center which was my closest mall growing up. In Pittsburgh https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_III_Mall is getting turn down, Ross Park Mall is declining and Robinson…

"Still open" was your criteria, not mine (as in when you said the other malls were "no more").

Fair enough, though I would say if these stores are on a spectrum tilting towards "barely open" or "on the decline" that it doesn't provide a useful counter-argument for the overall sentiment which is that malls are and have been dying. That being said I haven't been to any of the ones you've listed in my adult life so would have no idea their status.

I will concede that there are thriving malls in existence in the same way that stores that closed in one area of the country thrive in others. Not sure what that says towards malls as a whole but imagine it would trend to being viable in only a subset of the country.

Re: Busted retailers use bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands

#188

Post by vkou » Thu, Aug 06, 2020, 11:06 PM UTC

gonehome wrote: post #143

vkou wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can lead to something like that, yes. Like in 2008, the Fed will print as much money as it takes to prevent this kind of systemic collapse.

We were lucky in 2008 that there was the political will and capacity for Congress (and the incoming Obama administration) to do what they did. I think whatever people thought of the decisions at the time, the market recovery after 2008 (and all of the banks paying back those loans) is evidence that those decisions were right. I'd be worried that the political will may not exist this time, or that the administration w…

The Fed has reacted in pretty much the same manner in 2020 as it did in 2008.

Re: Busted retailers use bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands

#189

Post by coliveira » Thu, Aug 06, 2020, 11:11 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #157

coliveira wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If capitalism is to be the law of the land, why not let the rich lose everything? I guess they can easily live on the streets.

I gathered the issue is when the rich lose everything that snowballs into failing business and low to middle class unemployment surge.

No, other people will take their place, this is how capitalism works. Let the rich lose everything.

Re: Busted retailers use bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands

#190

Post by shard » Thu, Aug 06, 2020, 11:32 PM UTC

true_religion wrote: post #172

shard wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this attitude that someone who decides to invest their money into real estate instead of the stock market should be derided as a plague on society, as if it's not much more work to be a landlord than a stock market investor. When you are a landlord, you have to worry about tenants that don't pay (and threaten you with physical violence when you try to collect), tenants that damage your property, ha…

I don’t think it’s derision, just the attitude that people in power ought to defend themselves. Banks have no shortage of money, lawyers, and friends in high places. They do not need you or I also apologizing their actions. If anything we should be extremely suspicious of ant bailout and scrutinize it to ensure it’s well deserved, and will result in a better society overall.

I was referring to landlords, which many of mine have been just small time business owners who scrimp and save to make a living. One lived in the garage of the house he was renting out in order to make ends meet. Technically they have the power since they own the properties, but laws are very tenant friendly, and often landlords get left with the short end of the stick if there is a dispute.