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Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

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Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#101

Post by hker »

FabHK wrote: post #90
yashap wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been plenty of successful, peaceful-ish secessions in history. Off the top of my head, the British Empire mostly dissolved semi-peacefully, which was basically a tonne of secessions. Norway essentially seceded from Sweden. Russia didn’t fight TOO hard against the fall of the USSR. You could argue Brexit is a secession of sorts. I’m sure there are more. Not that there wasn’t plenty of protest, struggle and…

I think the point of the OP is that HK is in a fairly bad situation to survive as an independent state with one potentially hostile neighbour. Nearly 80% of HK's water supply is imported from China [1]. Only about a quarter of food imports are from China [2], so the situation there is better. But what if China were to close the land borders and impose a maritime blockade? It wouldn't be pretty. When Japan invaded Hon…

> Lastly, China is for historical reasons extremely protective of its territorial integrity (because loss of land often presaged the demise of a dynasty and subsequent disarray, and the touchy "century of humiliation" during which many territories were conceded to foreign powers [3b])

Worth noting that China quietly accepted losing territories, such as pulling back with India [1], and more importantly to Russia’s Vladivostok (Chinese [2] Google translate [3])--Russia is one of the foreign powers listed in the “Century of humiliation” propaganda, which China quietly accepts losing territorial integrity to.

China appears to be protective loudly, so that she could give up quietly. She cites “historical reasons” only when convenient. See what she does, not what she says.

[1]: https://thewire.in/security/chinese-pullback-at-galwan-comes...

[2]: https://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200703-俄羅斯微博高調慶祝海參崴建城160周年-網民怒批-官...

[3]: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#102

Post by thaumasiotes »

yashap wrote: post #73
mywittyname wrote: post #70

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

There have been plenty of successful, peaceful-ish secessions in history. Off the top of my head, the British Empire mostly dissolved semi-peacefully, which was basically a tonne of secessions. Norway essentially seceded from Sweden. Russia didn’t fight TOO hard against the fall of the USSR. You could argue Brexit is a secession of sorts. I’m sure there are more. Not that there wasn’t plenty of protest, struggle and…

> Not that there wasn’t plenty of protest, struggle and loss of life in things like the dissolving of the British Empire and USSR, but the more powerful actor did eventually give up, vs. simply saying “we have the bigger army, we’re gonna crush you.”

It's quite possible for the larger power to be defeated by having to fight multiple smaller powers. Bigger army doesn't mean it's a fight you can win.

On a somewhat-related note, I read of an interesting case in Indian history involving a minor state that existed between two major powers. The situation was stable.

One of those major powers, feeling especially strong, conquered that minor state. It could do that -- it was much bigger! But this ended up directly exposing its (new) border to the other major power, which invaded. The first power fell apart.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#103

Post by saeranv »

supernova87a wrote: post #100
saeranv wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am so impressed by these activists but at the same time feel so demoralized. The CCP has consistently acted with great hostility and any attempt to change the system through existing political mechanisms, protests, and civil disobedience. And our global institutions have been seriously weakened by the election of various far-right, nationalist politicians who have no interest in, or are actively hostile towards pro…

But let me play a moderate and ask you: Are you an HK secessionist or merely seeking to delay / live out what was promised? I.e., are you merely advocating for Hong Kong to peacefully continue the rest of its 20 years before full handover to China, under the system they've been used to? This is what was promised -- and you don't want China to prematurely erode HK's civil liberties? Or are you seeking Hong Kong's inde…

This is a good point. I feel like I have a somewhat unsatisfying answer to this, which is that I am approaching this from a first-principles reasoning of ethical value, which logically leads to the arguing for secession.

Specifically, since I consider the preservation of civil liberties as a foundational ethical value, I consider the broad infringement of it, whether now or in the future is fundamentally unethical. From that perspective I consider both cases unethical, and that places me as in the secessionist category, even though that would mean violating the treaty.

One could argue that from a utilitarian perspective, (that places overall societal utility over individual liberty), that China is acting consistently within it's own interpretation of utilitarian ethics. The CCP could argue that maximizing ethical value necessitates both infringing on civil liberties, and violating the treaty. They could even plausibly point towards their radical success in reducing poverty, and leadership on climate change as an example of the superiority of their system. However, the (ongoing) genocide of Uighurs should clearly illustrate the flaws in this system.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#104

Post by ksec »

dumb1224 wrote: post #95
BelleOfTheBall wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is his plan for Hong Kong moving forward? I'd be interested to see what a local activist thinks could be a solution to their "China problem", especially considering that a country as big and powerful isn't going to simply back off. His fight is a tough one and I have great respect for a person so young to commit to it so fully.

A HK friend of mine who's strongly opposing CCP told me independence isn't what most HK citizens want (a hoax even quoting his words). It was a merely a weaponised piece of propaganda by the CCP mouthpieces. By now I can't tell whether he's right or not only from reading main stream media articles. Also curious to learn what will be the ultimate goal.

It started as a hoax, because people naively believe the sanity of CCP or HK Government to even act with any decency.

The sentiment gradually shifted, because they lost whatever hope or trust that is left with the government.

It is still not a mainstream view, but it isn't so much a "hoax" like it was same time last year.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#105

Post by ksec »

monksy wrote: post #6
FooBarWidget wrote: post #3

It is interesting that there was recently a petition asking for people to support the national security law, and that it managed to gather 3 million signatures. For comparison, high estimations on the number of people who went on the streets to protest, was about 2 million. Both numbers are likely to be overestimations, but it seems to show that the Hong Kong people are divided about whether China is good for them, a…

3million signatures.. they would never fake that now would they? https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/420764-chicago-alderman-ca...

Half of them were faked, half of them were forced to sign when their Job or bonus were dependent on it.

And that is about as civilised and as polite as I could put it.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#106

Post by hker »

dirtyid wrote: post #81
yashap wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been plenty of successful, peaceful-ish secessions in history. Off the top of my head, the British Empire mostly dissolved semi-peacefully, which was basically a tonne of secessions. Norway essentially seceded from Sweden. Russia didn’t fight TOO hard against the fall of the USSR. You could argue Brexit is a secession of sorts. I’m sure there are more. Not that there wasn’t plenty of protest, struggle and…

HK doesn't pay tax to central government, and is too close and too small to secede as long as mainland has some semblance of cohesive power, UK admitted China could roll over HK in the mid 80s if they wanted to + the lesson politburo learned from USSR's collapse is to not fragment at any cost. To the mainland, HK is not a unwieldy, far flung holding that takes commiserate projection to tame. It's a small city of 7mil…

Hong Kong will be paying an unrestricted amount as national security fee to central government (Chinese [1] Google translate [2]), and as an estimate, China is spending more on domestic security than military [3]--they perceive a greater threat from inside than from outside.

[1]: https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1535055-20200701.h...

[2]: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...

[3]: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/China-People-s-Congress-20...

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#107

Post by dirtyid »

hker wrote: post #106
dirtyid wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HK doesn't pay tax to central government, and is too close and too small to secede as long as mainland has some semblance of cohesive power, UK admitted China could roll over HK in the mid 80s if they wanted to + the lesson politburo learned from USSR's collapse is to not fragment at any cost. To the mainland, HK is not a unwieldy, far flung holding that takes commiserate projection to tame. It's a small city of 7mil…

Hong Kong will be paying an unrestricted amount as national security fee to central government (Chinese [1] Google translate [2]), and as an estimate, China is spending more on domestic security than military [3]--they perceive a greater threat from inside than from outside. [1]: https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1535055-20200701.h... [2]: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https... [3]: h…

That's not a tax to the mainland, but new operation cost per national security commitments. Though technicalities aside, it could totally be exploited as a new tax that could be as onerous as politburo decides. HK autonomy is definitely over, though I surmise it's future is still indeterminate. There's good case to cultivate the city for another 1C2S model closer to Singapore, but it will take time, and indoctrination via patriotic education of new youth cohorts to produce a society that's more compatible with CCP 20 years from now. It's the last peaceful 1C2S gambit within reunification time frame.

I don't know how the article about PAP relates, though I was going to mention in the original comment that HK wouldn't take more few PAP detachments to tame even without "military" intervention. The key point, being that it's not a "frontier" territory and surrounded by so much CCP para/military/security that secession is not possible.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#108

Post by arcticbull »

yashap wrote: post #73
mywittyname wrote: post #70

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

There have been plenty of successful, peaceful-ish secessions in history. Off the top of my head, the British Empire mostly dissolved semi-peacefully, which was basically a tonne of secessions. Norway essentially seceded from Sweden. Russia didn’t fight TOO hard against the fall of the USSR. You could argue Brexit is a secession of sorts. I’m sure there are more. Not that there wasn’t plenty of protest, struggle and…

Locally, Singapore was kicked out of Malaysia, being the only country in the history of the world to gain independence against its own will -- certainly the only one I know of. [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore_in_Malaysia

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#109

Post by arcticbull »

RobRivera wrote: post #74
mywittyname wrote: post #70

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

Honestly- best case scenerio as measured by reduction of humor life loss, a great urban flight similar to what happened to Detroit is the best option. Exhile By doing so, the value of hk is lost (economic powerhouse loss and brain drain) And the hk people can retain their freedom. Along that train of thought, the UK offer for naturalization makes sense, and the US would greatly benefit from such a process.

Well, the US isn't interested in taking anyone from anywhere, so that's kinda definitely not going to happen.

It's much more likely they'll end up in the other four of the Five Eyes (The UK, CA, AU and NZ in rough order of how many people will land in each).

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#110

Post by arcticbull »

supernova87a wrote: post #100
saeranv wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am so impressed by these activists but at the same time feel so demoralized. The CCP has consistently acted with great hostility and any attempt to change the system through existing political mechanisms, protests, and civil disobedience. And our global institutions have been seriously weakened by the election of various far-right, nationalist politicians who have no interest in, or are actively hostile towards pro…

But let me play a moderate and ask you: Are you an HK secessionist or merely seeking to delay / live out what was promised? I.e., are you merely advocating for Hong Kong to peacefully continue the rest of its 20 years before full handover to China, under the system they've been used to? This is what was promised -- and you don't want China to prematurely erode HK's civil liberties? Or are you seeking Hong Kong's inde…

The handover treaty did not promise "an erosion of civil liberties in 2047." What it promised was that the territory would retain its basic law, constitution and freedoms until at least 2047. What was to happen next was to be up to the CCP and HK. You seem to think that moving to authoritarian control of HK was a foregone conclusion in 2047, but the past and present have shown great benefit to both of retaining 1C2S. Domestic peace, and an sort of a no-mans land where the rest of the world can meet the (relatively) insular CCP and do business.

The future, indefinitely, could have been 1C2S. In theory, it could still be.

It's really the CCP that's choosing to impose its will on the people of Hong Kong -- to your point, prematurely, but also objectively as a belligerent in this conflict. I suspect that most of the people of Hong Kong would have happily continued to live their lives on the island as they have for 50+ years, an enclave with a different way of life.

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