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Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

hongkongfp.com

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Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#91

Post by FabHK »

wendyshu wrote: post #76

Ideally Britain would have kept HK island and/or transferred HK to Taiwan rather than China. But I guess that wasn't workable. So the only option for HKers is emigration.

Plus, back when the Sino-British Joint Declaration was negotiated (1984) there was already this heady optimism in the air that democracy was inevitable (as expressed in Francis Fukuyama's 1992 The End of History and the Last Man), and the thinking was that by the time HK would lose its autonomy and become just another Chinese city (2047), China would be a wonderful democracy. Oh well.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#92

Post by saeranv »

keiferski wrote: post #82
BelleOfTheBall wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is his plan for Hong Kong moving forward? I'd be interested to see what a local activist thinks could be a solution to their "China problem", especially considering that a country as big and powerful isn't going to simply back off. His fight is a tough one and I have great respect for a person so young to commit to it so fully.

The book came out in February but at the moment he seems to be running for the legislature. His overall strategy seems to be to drum up international support for HK democracy, which will then (in theory) pressure the CCP. He intends to run in a primary for the pro-democracy camp that will choose candidates for the Legislative Council vote on Sept. 6. "If more people vote for us ... it could generate more pressure and…

I am so impressed by these activists but at the same time feel so demoralized.

The CCP has consistently acted with great hostility and any attempt to change the system through existing political mechanisms, protests, and civil disobedience. And our global institutions have been seriously weakened by the election of various far-right, nationalist politicians who have no interest in, or are actively hostile towards promoting civil liberties and liberalism.

What other options do these activists have? Violence?

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#93

Post by LatteLazy »

mywittyname wrote: post #70

Does anyone have insight into how secessionists think that a successful campaign will play out? The state is small and a shares border with China, so it's not some situation where it will be easy to repeal invaders. And the people are at a severe military disadvantage. Even if every Hong Konger was armed, trained, and well lead, China could wage a war of attrition and win without a single shot fired. I feel like thei…

I don't think they plan to win militarily. I think either they don't have a plan, but their desperate. Or they hope to stir up enough diplomatic pressure/embarrassment to make China back down (they did before I think).

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#94

Post by koheripbal »

FabHK wrote: post #90
yashap wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been plenty of successful, peaceful-ish secessions in history. Off the top of my head, the British Empire mostly dissolved semi-peacefully, which was basically a tonne of secessions. Norway essentially seceded from Sweden. Russia didn’t fight TOO hard against the fall of the USSR. You could argue Brexit is a secession of sorts. I’m sure there are more. Not that there wasn’t plenty of protest, struggle and…

I think the point of the OP is that HK is in a fairly bad situation to survive as an independent state with one potentially hostile neighbour. Nearly 80% of HK's water supply is imported from China [1]. Only about a quarter of food imports are from China [2], so the situation there is better. But what if China were to close the land borders and impose a maritime blockade? It wouldn't be pretty. When Japan invaded Hon…

> Nearly 80% of HK's water supply is imported from China ... what if China were to close the land borders and impose a maritime blockade

This entirely misses the point that China is openly willing to invade militarily.

There is absolutely no way to achieve HK independence without central Chinese government consent. ...which is about as likely as finding an ice cube on the surface of the sun.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#95

Post by dumb1224 »

BelleOfTheBall wrote: post #77
keiferski wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wong actually explicitly says he is against secession in the book, but I doubt that detail is relevant for a motivated prosecutor.

What is his plan for Hong Kong moving forward? I'd be interested to see what a local activist thinks could be a solution to their "China problem", especially considering that a country as big and powerful isn't going to simply back off. His fight is a tough one and I have great respect for a person so young to commit to it so fully.

A HK friend of mine who's strongly opposing CCP told me independence isn't what most HK citizens want (a hoax even quoting his words). It was a merely a weaponised piece of propaganda by the CCP mouthpieces. By now I can't tell whether he's right or not only from reading main stream media articles. Also curious to learn what will be the ultimate goal.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#96

Post by ngcc_hk »

The secession is forced to hkers. And then start the hammering. Just like u and t people that they are x whatever x is as an excluse to thumb is down.

The best scenario if that is the path is Switzerland model as a neutral ground. In fact that is what 1c2s model is. but that is unlikely now. You have that option if some acceptance of similarity (languages - French, Germany etc as English is the business and government internal language). Hk play a different game due to its proximity and multiple strong countries around (in influence, history and trade).

Unfortunately, China traditional cultural view That the world is one and no coexistence in heart. Its stands is really Hans or barbarian does not help. It got an economic of scale that is hard to beat. And once back on world stage it is a force that fit dominance more. Unless that change Hk fight, our fight here, is hard.

The china does not understand and take this. At least not for long. Dang ... No way out yet. But fight on. Cathedral vs bazaar. One vs many.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#97

Post by koheripbal »

Johnjonjoan wrote: post #2

When the Hong Kong stock exchange listed a Chinese tech index the other day I realised Hong Kong had completely fallen. The CCP rules Hong Kong in totality now as far as I'm concerned.

Internally, they sold the operation to the public as "restoring law and order" to Hong Kong and endlessly showed videos of protesters attacking police officers.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#98

Post by LatteLazy »

The bigger question here is what about China? We all (those of us over 35) assumed that as they industrialised, they would gradually become democratic (in the sense of elections but also of human rights and rule of law). That's clearly not the case. The CCP seem to be more firmly in place than ever...

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#99

Post by FabHK »

koheripbal wrote: post #94
FabHK wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point of the OP is that HK is in a fairly bad situation to survive as an independent state with one potentially hostile neighbour. Nearly 80% of HK's water supply is imported from China [1]. Only about a quarter of food imports are from China [2], so the situation there is better. But what if China were to close the land borders and impose a maritime blockade? It wouldn't be pretty. When Japan invaded Hon…

> Nearly 80% of HK's water supply is imported from China ... what if China were to close the land borders and impose a maritime blockade This entirely misses the point that China is openly willing to invade militarily. There is absolutely no way to achieve HK independence without central Chinese government consent. ...which is about as likely as finding an ice cube on the surface of the sun.

You're absolutely right. The hopeful "secession has often worked" idea founders on many many cliffs here.

Re: Student group leader arrested on suspicion of inciting secession in HK

#100

Post by supernova87a »

saeranv wrote: post #92
keiferski wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The book came out in February but at the moment he seems to be running for the legislature. His overall strategy seems to be to drum up international support for HK democracy, which will then (in theory) pressure the CCP. He intends to run in a primary for the pro-democracy camp that will choose candidates for the Legislative Council vote on Sept. 6. "If more people vote for us ... it could generate more pressure and…

I am so impressed by these activists but at the same time feel so demoralized. The CCP has consistently acted with great hostility and any attempt to change the system through existing political mechanisms, protests, and civil disobedience. And our global institutions have been seriously weakened by the election of various far-right, nationalist politicians who have no interest in, or are actively hostile towards pro…

But let me play a moderate and ask you:

Are you an HK secessionist or merely seeking to delay / live out what was promised?

I.e., are you merely advocating for Hong Kong to peacefully continue the rest of its 20 years before full handover to China, under the system they've been used to? This is what was promised -- and you don't want China to prematurely erode HK's civil liberties?

Or are you seeking Hong Kong's independence, and a nullification of the treaty that was agreed to?

Because if you agree that the territory belongs to China, then we're just unhappy about it coming sooner than expected, right? It eventually would revert to China and have all the infringement of rights, which are now just being experienced sooner.

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