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Smartphone contact tracing has failed everywhere

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Re: Smartphone contact tracing has failed everywhere

#181

Post by toyg »

cwhiz wrote: post #152

Contact tracing apps were NEVER going to work. There are numerous fundamental technical problems but those aren’t even worth getting into, because people won’t use this shit. Smartphone contact tracing is an absurd silver bullet pipe dream from a bunch of hammers who see the world as full of nails. It won’t work, can’t work, and will not ever work. How much more effort are people going to waste on this?? Every time t…

I agree that it won’t work in Europe or the US and it was absurdly over-hyped, but mobile-based helpers have been effective in Asia. The critical difference is that Asian countries can mandate this sort of thing, since their populations seem to be culturally more willing to accept a higher degree of illiberal state control over their lives (for the good of society at large). If the app had to be installed and configured in every smartphone sold, and you were forced to show it to police spot-checks on the streets, adoption rates wouldn’t be a problem.

This is obviously unfeasible and undesirable in most Western countries (at the moment...) so we’re left with a voluntary scheme that is only as effective as typical voluntary schemes (i.e. not much).

Re: Smartphone contact tracing has failed everywhere

#182

Post by toyg »

kevinpet wrote: post #137
eecc wrote: post #130

Italy’s Immuni wasn’t downloaded enough to be a significant sample; people are too worried about their bloody battery performance and “what if I’m flagged and gub’mint makes me isolate home”. The National Health Service’s effort to run a population wide serological sample was also declined because “what if I’m positive and I need to stay home”. The fucking chemical reagents expired in the meantime. It’s these times w…

Comments like "what if I’m flagged and gub’mint makes me isolate home" makes me think of people who object that the problem is idiot users who don't recognize a clearly superior product. If people don't trust the government, that's a failure of that government.

We’ve seen the same phenomenon across countries as different as Norway and Italy. Some fears are primal.

Re: Smartphone contact tracing has failed everywhere

#183

Post by Leherenn »

stevedotcarter wrote: post #100

I live in Ireland and our contact tracing app (using Google+Apple tech) seems to be doing well. There was about 1 million install 1-2 days after it launched, currently standing at 1.4 million installs (population is 4.9 million), along with some positive contacts reported: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53525712 It was also donated to open source. https://www.nearform.com/blog/ireland-donates-contact-tracin... W…

Does installed mean active? Here, the local app had good penetration, but daily activation was rather low and constantly decreasing.

One of the concern is that it impacts battery life, so people turn it off most of the time unless they plan to go to a public space. Then they forget to turn it on.

Re: Smartphone contact tracing has failed everywhere

#184

Post by Avamander »

raverbashing wrote: post #172
Avamander wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah yes, the waterproof "some bad things are happening, it must mean that this other bad thing happening is also fine"-argument. "Most people infect their devices with malware from the internet, let's all preinstall malware to every device because it has the same end result."

> Ah yes, the waterproof "some bad things are happening, it must mean that this other bad thing happening is also fine"-argument. Ah yes the good strawman fallacy argument Funny how the contact tracing app requires no special permissions. None. Every extra data is completely optional. Sure it is your choice to not install the C.T. app and install other data-hoarding apps but know what you're doing.

> Ah yes the good strawman fallacy argument

It isn't, that's literally what you said. That we should be okay with contact tracing if we have anything else that uses the fine-grained location permission.

Re: Smartphone contact tracing has failed everywhere

#185

Post by stevedotcarter »

Leherenn wrote: post #183
stevedotcarter wrote: post #100

I live in Ireland and our contact tracing app (using Google+Apple tech) seems to be doing well. There was about 1 million install 1-2 days after it launched, currently standing at 1.4 million installs (population is 4.9 million), along with some positive contacts reported: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53525712 It was also donated to open source. https://www.nearform.com/blog/ireland-donates-contact-tracin... W…

Does installed mean active? Here, the local app had good penetration, but daily activation was rather low and constantly decreasing. One of the concern is that it impacts battery life, so people turn it off most of the time unless they plan to go to a public space. Then they forget to turn it on.

You’re right, it doesn’t mean active.

It’s possible many of those users did not grant the contact tracing permission on the phone when installing. But I’m assuming anyone who went to both of installing would be open to allowing it. They could also have uninstalled 10 mins later. I don’t know how the number is being calculated.

I’m on iOS and keep app installs on my phone to a minimal but haven’t noticed battery drain so far. Android my differ.

Also your phone can collect the data by enabling in Settings > Privacy > Health > COVID-19 without the app at all.

Re: Smartphone contact tracing has failed everywhere

#186

Post by Barrin92 »

bad_user wrote: post #110
Barrin92 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The false choice here is actually that you can sacrifice lives and still expect to have freedom. The alternative to not giving up privacy for contact tracing or similar measures is to be locked into your home medieval style while the plague runs wild in the streets, which is a significantly stronger limitation of freedoms. The choice isn't between liberty or safety, just as it isn't between economic health and lockdo…

While I understood lockdown measures, know that this is your privilege talking. You can stay in lockdown because you're middle class living in a wealthy country. In countries like India lockdown can cost far more than what Covid-19 can do. I'm not arguing against public health measures, when the cost to me is low or when accompanied by evidence. So where's the evidence that tracing apps work? That South Korea does it…

It's not my privilege talking I don't think. In my country we're down to a few hundred cases per day and I have gone physically back to work since early June, business is looking up again.

That's the wrong trade-off I'm talking about. Yes, the lockdowns and measures hurt both privacy and economics, but not dealing with it hurts people more, both privileged and non-privileged, there are no winners.

Imagine in a country with 300 million people, if covid is not controlled it will cause tens of millions of hospitalizations, heart/lung damages, millions of stroke victims, the damage to liberty and prosperity is immeasurable. In a country like India there will not even be resources to appropriately care for everyone.

I also don't have a strong opinion about the apps in particular, just the general point. In Taiwan they gave everyone phones and manually checked on them every day. Quick, temporary restrictions have already enabled them to go back to normal life.

Re: Smartphone contact tracing has failed everywhere

#187

Post by bad_user »

Barrin92 wrote: post #186
bad_user wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I understood lockdown measures, know that this is your privilege talking. You can stay in lockdown because you're middle class living in a wealthy country. In countries like India lockdown can cost far more than what Covid-19 can do. I'm not arguing against public health measures, when the cost to me is low or when accompanied by evidence. So where's the evidence that tracing apps work? That South Korea does it…

It's not my privilege talking I don't think. In my country we're down to a few hundred cases per day and I have gone physically back to work since early June, business is looking up again. That's the wrong trade-off I'm talking about. Yes, the lockdowns and measures hurt both privacy and economics, but not dealing with it hurts people more, both privileged and non-privileged, there are no winners. Imagine in a countr…

> Yes, the lockdowns and measures hurt both privacy and economics, but not dealing with it hurts people more, both privileged and non-privileged, there are no winners.

For western countries, we agree, economists are pretty much in agreement that the lockdown measures have been good (although the long term outlook isn't looking good).

For poorer countries, like India, that's simply not true.

When you've got a country of young people that are literally dying of hunger if they can't go to work, a 1% fatality rate starts to sound pretty good ;-)

And this is even true for the poor in the US as well. People are freaking out because they lack a social safety net and even the less fortunate in the middle class have burned through their savings. Good luck explaining to them that it's for their own good, because it isn't. It's for your own good, not theirs. It's privilege because you and I can afford to stay at home. People also judge such measures via what they can and can't afford. It's not bad to be privileged, but we need to recognize the position we are in.

And if you want to force people to stay at home, fine, but be prepared to pay the bill for it ;-)

Re: Smartphone contact tracing has failed everywhere

#188

Post by danijoo »

Spearchucker wrote: post #129
azinman2 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany adopted the Apple/Google framework, which is exactly what an Apple/Google app would use. The whole point of the design is that it’s decentralized and you wouldn’t be giving Apple/Google more information.

True. Except that the German app turns on EVERYTHING - LTE, WiFi, Bluetooth, GPS. And the carrier gets it all. I had the app installed for all of maybe 2 minutes because it did exactly what it claimed to do, but I'm not giving the carrier even more granular location info. The only thing I leave on when I leave the house is mobile data.

German android user here. This is absolutely wrong. I suspect you are misinterpreting the permission message on Android. The app does not turn anything on. I suggest you to learn how androids permission system works before throwing out wrong accusions.

Re: Smartphone contact tracing has failed everywhere

#189

Post by azinman2 »

anoncake wrote: post #176
azinman2 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That 1% depends on a wide variety of contexts. It isn’t 1% for everyone, 1/3% of those who didn’t die seem to have debilitating persistent problems, and even if everything is fine with you, you can pass it to someone who passes it to someone who dies from your unwillingness to act for the greater good. To do anything but protect yourself is fundamentally selfish.

> 1/3% of those who didn’t die seem to have debilitating persistent problems Source? All I've seen so far has been anecdotal evidence.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm

Re: Smartphone contact tracing has failed everywhere

#190

Post by Spearchucker »

danijoo wrote: post #188
Spearchucker wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. Except that the German app turns on EVERYTHING - LTE, WiFi, Bluetooth, GPS. And the carrier gets it all. I had the app installed for all of maybe 2 minutes because it did exactly what it claimed to do, but I'm not giving the carrier even more granular location info. The only thing I leave on when I leave the house is mobile data.

German android user here. This is absolutely wrong. I suspect you are misinterpreting the permission message on Android. The app does not turn anything on. I suggest you to learn how androids permission system works before throwing out wrong accusions.

I stand by my post.
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