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Q2 2020 Update

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Q2 2020 Update

#181

Post by BbzzbB »

xchaotic wrote: post #134

Purely anecdotal but we are in the market for a new car when our current lease runs out. We were looking at Tesla and the quality is not there and dealerships means we can’t test etc. The valuation is crazy, VW can literally flip the switch and start producing more e-Golfs etc when the demand is there.

Not to defend TSLA's valuation, but the argument of other car giants being "able to flip a switch and make something better" has been proven wrong many times. There are plenty of rational "TSLAQ-arguments", that one is no longer on that list.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#182

Post by jedberg »

ckastner wrote: post #89
marc__1 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla posted positive free cash flow (CFO - capex) for 4 of the last 5 quarters (page 24) and it the only company with increase in # of deliveries among the 10 largest autos globally (page 7). Gross margins >20% is also best in class in the auto industry The list goes on in terms of growth & profitability

> "The list goes on in terms of growth & profitability" It better. Tesla has a market cap of 4x that of VW, a car maker with €256bn revenue and ~€17bn profit in 2019. It is beyond me why anyone would buy this stock over VW, let alone pay 4x the price for it. Even if Tesla could put out 900K cars in a quarter instead of the current 90K, they'd still not come even close to the competition is terms of financial success.…

Tesla doesn't just make cars. They are really a battery company that happens to make cars that use their batteries, but they also make whole home batteries, which include recycling the ones from the cars, as well as solar panels to charge those batteries and charging systems that can be deployed to charge those batteries.

I'm not saying the valuation makes sense, but to compare them to a car company doesn't make a ton of sense.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#183

Post by wenc »

RandallBrown wrote: post #178
_ph_ wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How was Tesla funded by the tax payer at all?

Electric vehicle tax credits?

Well, EV tax credits are subsidies for a "category" -- electric vehicles -- not specific companies. Every EV customer gets them, and their intention is incentivize the transition to electric transportation, so they're working as they should.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#184

Post by _ph_ »

RandallBrown wrote: post #178
_ph_ wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How was Tesla funded by the tax payer at all?

Electric vehicle tax credits?

That was not a funding going to the company, only to the customers. It made the cars a bit more affordable, that certainly helped. But it didn't fund the company. Also, they have long expired for Tesla, the only companies benefitting from the tax credits are the competing companies.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#185

Post by tuatoru »

mamon wrote: post #88
guardiangod wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One would expect a widget-manufacturer that is supply-constrained to have flat revenue until new factories are opened, unless you are talking about raising prices to increase profitability. It doesn't seem Tesla is that concerned with short-term profitability.

If Tesla cars were really in high demand, and supply was the problem then I would expect them to raise prices, thus increasing revenue. They haven't done that, which means Tesla's are probably not as sexy cars as they try to paint them.

Companies that raise prices in exceptional situations take a major reputational hit.

The canonical example is snow shovels after a blizzard.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#186

Post by lazyjones »

ckastner wrote: post #89
marc__1 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla posted positive free cash flow (CFO - capex) for 4 of the last 5 quarters (page 24) and it the only company with increase in # of deliveries among the 10 largest autos globally (page 7). Gross margins >20% is also best in class in the auto industry The list goes on in terms of growth & profitability

> "The list goes on in terms of growth & profitability" It better. Tesla has a market cap of 4x that of VW, a car maker with €256bn revenue and ~€17bn profit in 2019. It is beyond me why anyone would buy this stock over VW, let alone pay 4x the price for it. Even if Tesla could put out 900K cars in a quarter instead of the current 90K, they'd still not come even close to the competition is terms of financial success.…

VW is shrinking, its leaders are not innovative and their suppliers are dying while VW is scrambling to bring component development back in-house.

Estimates for Q2 2020 are around -3,2 € per share (EPS) for Volkswagen while Tesla posted a profit.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#187

Post by bitxbit »

stingrae wrote: post #176
bitxbit wrote: post #172

Can we be realistic here? I am 100% behind zero emission electric vehicles. However, we are still 10-15 years out from even reaching the necessary infrastructure to support more than 10% market pen. Certain patents will have expired by then. I also despise the fact that Tesla was largely funded by US tax payers and they will likely shift majority of manufacturing abroad in the near future.

Why do you think they will shift manufacturing abroad in the near future? The factories in China are building for the Chinese market to avoid import duties.

A) When it’s significantly cheaper to produce vehicles outside of the US due to regulatory and labor costs, Tesla will do what’s economically rational. B) US auto manufacturing is subpar. A big reason why I liked Tesla in the beginning was the narrative of US manufacturing revival. Thought they were serious about producing quality vehicles here. Past two years showed that’s not the case.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#188

Post by codeulike »

xchaotic wrote: post #134

Purely anecdotal but we are in the market for a new car when our current lease runs out. We were looking at Tesla and the quality is not there and dealerships means we can’t test etc. The valuation is crazy, VW can literally flip the switch and start producing more e-Golfs etc when the demand is there.

VW can literally flip the switch and start producing more e-Golfs etc when the demand is there.

No they can't. For one, the e-Golf is roughly competitive with the Nissan Leaf but has nothing on the range/performance of a Tesla. VW have been faffing about trying to launch their new ID3 EV for ages (has that launched yet?). Building decent EVs is hard. If the efficiency is not there in the drivetrain, then the car is either too short range or too expensive.

And you need to source batteries. Either gotta build your own huge factory, or squabble with all the other carmakers to source them from the same places as everyone else.

Look at recent efforts by Audi and Porche to make 'tesla killers'. They are barely Tesla ticklers. Maybe they have one strong metric or whatever (track handling for the Porche, charging speed for the Audi) but they aren't really anywhere close in price/range/overall package terms.

Here's a press relase from 2013, when VW declared they would lead the world on EVs by 2018.

September 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Volkswagen Group has set its sights on global market leadership in electric mobility. "We are starting at exactly the right time. We are electrifying all vehicle classes, and therefore have everything we need to make the Volkswagen Group the top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility, by 2018", Prof. Dr. Martin Winterkorn, CEO of Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft, said on the eve of the 65th International Motor Show in Frankfurt am Main.

https://tass.com/press-releases/700457

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#189

Post by [deleted] »

itsoktocry wrote: post #6

The difference in the narrative versus the financial data is stark: Quarterly revenue has not shown any growth for nearly 2 years, despite introducing more models and expanding global deliveries. Their sales of regulatory credits this year is greater than all of the net income ever earned in their entire history.

[deleted]

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#190

Post by jliptzin »

jpdus wrote: post #123
grecy wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Sure, stock prices are forward looking. However, nothing what you wrote is new information. All this was priced in BEFORE Tesla's stock price quadrupled again.

The price was artificially low due to abuse from short sellers who have finally given up over the last few months. You can see based on the chart of short interest vs. stock price. Now it may have swung in the opposite direction, the stock seems to be crashing up due to gamma squeeze. But in my opinion if you are a long term investor (5-10) years the stock is still undervalued.
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