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Q2 2020 Update

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Q2 2020 Update

#171

Post by zaroth »

JoeSmithson wrote: post #168
sacred_numbers wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The potential upside for Tesla is huge. If they can become the Apple of electric cars and if electric cars become standard, they could be worth trillions. The reason their valuation was not in the trillions is because there is a risk that they will go bankrupt, that other companies will take the lead in EVs, or that EVs will not be where the market is headed in the foreseeable future. The reason for the jump in valua…

> "they could be worth trillions" Trillions? 50x the size of Ford? Bigger than, essentially, the current combined value of every car company in the world at the moment? How?

Ford has $150 billion in debt. 50x the size of Ford would be an enterprise value of $7.5 trillion, even if Ford's share price was $0.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#172

Post by bitxbit »

Can we be realistic here? I am 100% behind zero emission electric vehicles. However, we are still 10-15 years out from even reaching the necessary infrastructure to support more than 10% market pen. Certain patents will have expired by then. I also despise the fact that Tesla was largely funded by US tax payers and they will likely shift majority of manufacturing abroad in the near future.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#173

Post by ncallaway »

WJW wrote: post #145
thecopy wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It’s the climate change company What does this mean? ELI5 pls

They mean that in the mind of "the general public", Tesla is the foremost company "doing stuff" about climate change. Therefore, by owning Tesla stock you can get warm glowy feels about making a difference. You might also gain coolness points by mentioning that you are "a Tesla investor" to people that care about such matters.

I may be wrong—I own no TSLA and I'm pretty much the furthest thing from a professional investor—but I didn't think the comment about being "the climate change" company was actually about warm fuzzies, I thought it was about the potential financial upside.

My understanding is that very likely—whatever green energy technologies win out—energy storage and load shifting will be a major issue.

The entities that can build energy and power storage effectively and at scale will have a new and large market opening before them.

Tesla is in a decent position—by being near the front-edge of battery production and scaling there's real room for Tesla to be a major player in the world energy market.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#174

Post by megablast »

thecopy wrote: post #129
qeternity wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For bulls, TSLA isn’t a car company. It’s the climate change company. They are the best bet right now to upend the entire power mix. I’m not saying I agree with this. Even if achieved, the amount of future success being priced in today is extraordinary. Combine that with a stock that’s become “cool” to own with retail, and the huge short interest...and well it starts to make sense. TSLA price action at the moment is…

>It’s the climate change company What does this mean? ELI5 pls

How do you make money on climate change? Buying Tesla is one way.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#175

Post by _ph_ »

bitxbit wrote: post #172

Can we be realistic here? I am 100% behind zero emission electric vehicles. However, we are still 10-15 years out from even reaching the necessary infrastructure to support more than 10% market pen. Certain patents will have expired by then. I also despise the fact that Tesla was largely funded by US tax payers and they will likely shift majority of manufacturing abroad in the near future.

How was Tesla funded by the tax payer at all?

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#176

Post by stingrae »

bitxbit wrote: post #172

Can we be realistic here? I am 100% behind zero emission electric vehicles. However, we are still 10-15 years out from even reaching the necessary infrastructure to support more than 10% market pen. Certain patents will have expired by then. I also despise the fact that Tesla was largely funded by US tax payers and they will likely shift majority of manufacturing abroad in the near future.

Why do you think they will shift manufacturing abroad in the near future? The factories in China are building for the Chinese market to avoid import duties.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#177

Post by curious_fella1 »

marc__1 wrote: post #28
itsoktocry wrote: post #6

The difference in the narrative versus the financial data is stark: Quarterly revenue has not shown any growth for nearly 2 years, despite introducing more models and expanding global deliveries. Their sales of regulatory credits this year is greater than all of the net income ever earned in their entire history.

Tesla posted positive free cash flow (CFO - capex) for 4 of the last 5 quarters (page 24) and it the only company with increase in # of deliveries among the 10 largest autos globally (page 7). Gross margins >20% is also best in class in the auto industry The list goes on in terms of growth & profitability

> and it the only company with increase in # of deliveries among the 10 largest autos globally

I'm sure others have commented, but this is some real silly logic. Yes, going from (fake numbers) 100k -> 110k cars sold is a lot easier than going from 1M -> 1.1M.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#178

Post by RandallBrown »

_ph_ wrote: post #175
bitxbit wrote: post #172

Can we be realistic here? I am 100% behind zero emission electric vehicles. However, we are still 10-15 years out from even reaching the necessary infrastructure to support more than 10% market pen. Certain patents will have expired by then. I also despise the fact that Tesla was largely funded by US tax payers and they will likely shift majority of manufacturing abroad in the near future.

How was Tesla funded by the tax payer at all?

Electric vehicle tax credits?

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#179

Post by stingrae »

yoavm wrote: post #170
sacred_numbers wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The potential upside for Tesla is huge. If they can become the Apple of electric cars and if electric cars become standard, they could be worth trillions. The reason their valuation was not in the trillions is because there is a risk that they will go bankrupt, that other companies will take the lead in EVs, or that EVs will not be where the market is headed in the foreseeable future. The reason for the jump in valua…

But why would they become the Apple of electric cars? Why do you think they have better chances than anyone else? The market, to me, seems to show that most people still buy non-electric cars. Once that flips, any other much bigger car manufacturer could start producing more electric cars. There doesn't seem to be any rocket science to it. Back in the 90s I bought a Rio PMP300. Before anyone knew what MP3s were, it w…

I do think Tesla is way over valued at the moment. How could they be worth more than the market cap of all the vehicle companies combined? There isn’t going to be largely more numbers of vehicles bought each year.

As to why Tesla could be the winner? One reason is that all the other automakers are failing to produce mass market EVs that anyone wants to buy.

Re: Q2 2020 Update

#180

Post by zaroth »

jpdus wrote: post #123
grecy wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Sure, stock prices are forward looking. However, nothing what you wrote is new information. All this was priced in BEFORE Tesla's stock price quadrupled again.

Future-looking means considering both upside and downside. A company like VW and GM is all downside. Back when TSLA stock was at $200, TSLA had a lot of perceived downside as well. The "word on the street" was...

- That Tesla would be going bankrupt any day now. That they were insolvent. That they were "structurally unprofitable".

- That Elon was personally broke and was about to get margin called on his lavish lifestyle and multiple mansions.

- That no one would buy a Model 3 without the tax credits.

- That the factory in China was just a mudfield and a marketing campaign.

Today TSLA has now cleared hurdles for becoming ~0.8% of the S&P500, which opens up ETF demand for an estimated 25 million shares, and is uniquely showing growth in the most challenging auto market in history.

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