Ireland donates contact tracing app to Linux Foundation • Hacker News Board

Re: Ireland donates contact tracing app to Linux Foundation

#61

Post by mercer » Mon, Jul 20, 2020, 5:49 PM UTC

rsynnott wrote: post #60

mercer wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think what's worse is that I suspect the whole project won't be all that useful, and a drop in the bucket compared to society-wide (enforced) change in behavior. From everything I've read, this kind of app 1) is only really useful if enough people actively use it, and 2) have serious issues with false positives because of inherent positional inaccuracy (or inability to be accurate without sucking battery). In regar…

So, false positives may not matter in some conditions. Ireland is currently reporting anything from 5 to 30 cases per day, doing anything from 3000 to 10000 tests per day, and has capacity for at least 15000 tests per day. If the app doubles the number of tests being done and finds a few new cases, that's fine; it's still a lot better than NOT finding those cases. These apps would, granted, be far less useful in plac…

Yeah, after I wrote my comment I figured that perhaps I overstated how useless the app would be. I imagine even with relatively low uptake it'll have /some/ effect. Even a little would help, I suppose.

Re: Ireland donates contact tracing app to Linux Foundation

#62

Post by rsynnott » Mon, Jul 20, 2020, 5:50 PM UTC

makomk wrote: post #37

tsbinz wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with contact tracing apps is that their effectiveness has a quadratic relation with the adoption rate. They would be mostly useful to trace "random" contacts (since you tend to know which of your friends and family you saw within the last 2 weeks), but to be able to trace a possible infection both the infected and the "recipient" have to have the app and active. In Germany they said their 12M installs is…

The other problem is which people are likely to install the app. It basically requires a modern Android or iOS smartphone with internet connectivity, which probably excludes the really at-risk groups that are of most concern: https://www.dw.com/en/loved-or-loathed-how-germanys-coronavi...

So, elderly people are less likely to use a smartphone (though I suspect not THAT much less likely). But the people they come in contact with probably do use one, mostly. Generally these should work on any smartphone under five years old.

Re: Ireland donates contact tracing app to Linux Foundation

#63

Post by marvion » Mon, Jul 20, 2020, 5:53 PM UTC

quonn wrote: post #44

johannes1234321 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First mistake: you calculate 6 weeks of dev time ignoring that SAP got 11.5M including maintenance for 2 years. Certainly amount of work in two years time is lower than initial dev work, but not zero. Secondly you are only taking in "development work", but such a contract entails other things - certainly there is a penalty if they deliver too late - there is legal risk to cover, if they deliver crap in some legal sen…

Okay, and the additional 1.5 million should suffice to „maintain“ an app that will not need or get any new features. Let‘s assume another million for lawyers „writing the contract“. It‘s still far off. Additionally let‘s remember the 20 million is just for the development. It does not include running the thing. That‘s what the other 50+ million are for. I don‘t agree. I run a business myself. I charge plenty. I know…

The German Spiegel listed the 20M cost somewhat differently:

- 9.5M development (SAP)

- 7.8M setup/operations (Telekom)

- 2M Support(SAP)

+ Tax

So, in the books, development is 10M, not 20M

(german source, un-paywalled: https://outline.com/UYqb5b)

Re: Ireland donates contact tracing app to Linux Foundation

#64

Post by quonn » Mon, Jul 20, 2020, 5:53 PM UTC

kugelblitz wrote: post #57

dividuum wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure where you get the 1000 lines from. That's ridiculous. `cloc` counts 16k lines of Kotlin for the Android app and 22k lines of Swift for the iOS app. That does not even include other aspects like the server side code or support documentation. Also it's not only the app that had to be build: It required all the notification infrastructure and coordination to deliver test result to the app. This is really one of…

Yep, am positively surprised how the product turned out. Plus the launch also went well I think, including a comic manual and even an AMA on reddit; I didn't read of any glitches or anything bad either.

I can‘t help but wonder if anyone has actually read the specs published by Apple and Google. If anyone has actually shipped real iOS and Android apps.

I have followed this project closely. Checked the protocols. The APIs. And what‘s built on top.

The only complex thing I can think of is the way cases are confirmed. That‘s a bit involved. But it was worked out in advance.

Re: Ireland donates contact tracing app to Linux Foundation

#65

Post by tpush » Mon, Jul 20, 2020, 5:55 PM UTC

dividuum wrote: post #54

quonn wrote: post #24

In Germany the app was developed by research institutes. Then canceled. Then SAP picked it up and charged 10 million Euros for what is essentially a few 1000 lines of UI code. The German Telekom got the same amount, just „because“ and will additionally charge 2-3 million per month mostly for the hotline (with limited capacity). So the total cost will be 50-100 millions. Despite the fact that most technical work was a…

Not sure where you get the 1000 lines from. That's ridiculous. `cloc` counts 16k lines of Kotlin for the Android app and 22k lines of Swift for the iOS app. That does not even include other aspects like the server side code or support documentation. Also it's not only the app that had to be build: It required all the notification infrastructure and coordination to deliver test result to the app. This is really one of…

If only the app were available on the US App Store. Can't use it here in Germany because of my US Apple ID.

Re: Ireland donates contact tracing app to Linux Foundation

#66

Post by quonn » Mon, Jul 20, 2020, 5:58 PM UTC

quonn wrote: post #44

johannes1234321 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First mistake: you calculate 6 weeks of dev time ignoring that SAP got 11.5M including maintenance for 2 years. Certainly amount of work in two years time is lower than initial dev work, but not zero. Secondly you are only taking in "development work", but such a contract entails other things - certainly there is a penalty if they deliver too late - there is legal risk to cover, if they deliver crap in some legal sen…

Okay, and the additional 1.5 million should suffice to „maintain“ an app that will not need or get any new features. Let‘s assume another million for lawyers „writing the contract“. It‘s still far off. Additionally let‘s remember the 20 million is just for the development. It does not include running the thing. That‘s what the other 50+ million are for. I don‘t agree. I run a business myself. I charge plenty. I know…

I can‘t reply to marvion below so I put it here: The total initial cost is 20 million. As I said SAP gets half. These „operation“ costs by Telekom do not actually include any operations. The actual operation (including the hotlines) is estimated at 2-3 millions per month. But it actually depends, it‘s not a flat fee.

Re: Ireland donates contact tracing app to Linux Foundation

#67

Post by tannhaeuser » Mon, Jul 20, 2020, 5:59 PM UTC

rsynnott wrote: post #25

cj wrote: post #22

Where has a contact tracing app been successfully deployed at a large scale? Have those places seen any positive effect? Apple/Google's APIs were widely discussed a couple months ago, but (at least in the US) it seems to have fallen off everyone's radar.

Large-scale deployments in Ireland (1.4 million out of 4.9 million people) and Germany (12 million out of 80 million people), anyway. In Ireland it has lead to the discovery of a number of positive cases, which is positive; if they'd been discovered at all through conventional means that would have taken longer and the people concerned could have been spreading it for longer. There has also been successful deployment…

German app downloads have just passed 16 million [1]. Or do you mean including those who deinstalled it because it was boring ;?

[1]: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1125951/umfra...

Re: Ireland donates contact tracing app to Linux Foundation

#68

Post by rsynnott » Mon, Jul 20, 2020, 6:03 PM UTC

tannhaeuser wrote: post #67

rsynnott wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large-scale deployments in Ireland (1.4 million out of 4.9 million people) and Germany (12 million out of 80 million people), anyway. In Ireland it has lead to the discovery of a number of positive cases, which is positive; if they'd been discovered at all through conventional means that would have taken longer and the people concerned could have been spreading it for longer. There has also been successful deployment…

German app downloads have just passed 16 million [1]. Or do you mean including those who deinstalled it because it was boring ;? [1]: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1125951/umfra...

Ah, no, last numbers I saw were about 12m and it seemed to have slowed down a bit. That's good news!

Re: Ireland donates contact tracing app to Linux Foundation

#69

Post by dividuum » Mon, Jul 20, 2020, 6:03 PM UTC

tpush wrote: post #65

dividuum wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure where you get the 1000 lines from. That's ridiculous. `cloc` counts 16k lines of Kotlin for the Android app and 22k lines of Swift for the iOS app. That does not even include other aspects like the server side code or support documentation. Also it's not only the app that had to be build: It required all the notification infrastructure and coordination to deliver test result to the app. This is really one of…

If only the app were available on the US App Store. Can't use it here in Germany because of my US Apple ID.

My guess is that this is being worked on. See here: https://www.coronawarn.app/en/faq/#international

Re: Ireland donates contact tracing app to Linux Foundation

#70

Post by rsynnott » Mon, Jul 20, 2020, 6:12 PM UTC

quonn wrote: post #38

johannes1234321 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, it's not 1000 lines of UI code. It is a project with lots of pressure (timeline, politics, ...) and two years of maintenance. Including two apps (iOS and Android) multiple Backend systems and a concept, project management (coordination between government, testing laboratories, ...) looking at the team size (educated guess based on GitHub stats) the hourly rate is on the higher side, but it's still low for a gov…

Peanuts compared to the cost of COVID? How is that a valid measure?

If one of these apps leads to avoidance of a handful of serious cases (by identifying clusters earlier and thus reducing spread) it has paid for itself. An ICU bed costs _at least_ 2000 euro a day (that's for a normal one, ongoing operational costs only; rush-job new ICU capacity is presumably more expensive); it doesn't take too many averted hospitalisations to pay off one of these apps.

Obviously, it would have been better if the German app has been cheaper. But rush jobs are expensive, and the cost involved is pretty minimal relative to the cost of managing the pandemic writ large. If it's even slightly effective, it was worth it.