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OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

maraoz.com

421–430 of 554 posts

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#421
post #89

This is horrifying and whenever someone (in this thread and many others) exclaim how this is "cool" and "exciting" I picture a 13 year old boy out with his mate in the woods saying that after firing three 9mm rounds into a tree just after stealing his fathers gun. That is not to disparage these posters, this is quite obviously in a naive sense a "cool" piece of technology but the ramifications in todays already extre…

Nah, I think this might look worse than it is to "always online" types. And sure, it might be the death knell for Twitter and reddit. But it fortunately has zero impact on face to face interactions. I guess the 90s, before social media, before going to the internet for entertainment, before Yelp and reddit for buying advice, were before many commenters here were aware, but they weren't so bad. A reversion to that time period, but with today's ability to video chat with friends and family and the compute power available for, say, drug discovery, doesn't sound so bad to me.

In fact, I'm struggling to think how GPT-3 affects me at all, given my lifestyle.

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#422

disruptive potential comparable to that of blockchain technology. When I read this, I don't know, genuinely, if it's a _potential_ blockchain has/had or a realized potential, which I find hard to believe since it didn't disrupt anything apart gamblers so far.

Reading the entire article is highly insisted.

I agree and I recommend the same.

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#423
post #2

> I further predict that this will spark a creative gold rush among talented amateurs to train similar models and adapt them to a variety of purposes, including: mock news, “researched journalism”, advertising, politics, and propaganda. The first mention of 'Elon Musk' (who left the board) and this sentence alone gave me the tip-off that GPT-3 had generated that (and the whole blog) and it's following prediction make…

Why do you believe they won't release the model? It's Open AI after all. Google, NVIDIA and Microsoft also make their models freely available. Google already trained a model which is bigger than GPT-3. There might be some delay, but no fundamental problem with it. Fine-tuning the entire GPT-3 is impossible on a single GPU. But it's still possible to fine-tune specific layers. Plus, I'm sure somebody will release a di…

>Why do you believe they won't release the model? It's Open AI after all.

Because they want to commercialize the model "to cover the costs of research", it's stated in their blog post FAQ[0].

>Google already trained a model which is bigger than GPT-3.

Source?, a fast Google search yielded no results and I'm curious.

[0]https://openai.com/blog/openai-api/

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#424
post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Plot twist: This comment was generated by GPT-3 prompted with some of the comments in this thread. This kills the forum. Seriously, once this is weaponised, discussion of politics on the internet with strangers becomes completely pointless instead of just mostly pointless. You could potentially convince a human; you can't convince a neural net that isn't in learning mode.

Perhaps it will destroy anonymity. Because the only way to be sure a human wrote something is if you somehow know who the comment came from. We might end up with reputation based conversations.

Of course, the human can simply lend their name to the robot. And as previously discussed, ending anonymity entrenches the existing power structure.

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#425
post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was very apparent when reading the generated stories [1]. Especially the shoggoth cat dialogue, I found that one really creepy. The fragment below comes straight out from the uncanny valley: Human: Those memes sound funny. But you didn’t include any puns. So tell me, what is your favorite cat pun? AI: Well, the best pun for me was the one he searched for the third time: “You didn’t eat all my fish, did you?” You…

An instance of a Voight-Kampff test.

Yeah, GPT-3 never really gives any kind of answer to “why”. It rambles on like Abraham Simpson talking about how an onion on his belt was the style at the time. Devoid of purpose it fills the void with meaningless words until told to stop. It’s subtle gibberish... and fucking irritating as soon as you catch it.

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#427
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've started working on a version of GPT-2 which generates English text. The purpose of this is to improve its ability to predict the next character in a text, by having it learn 'grammatical rules' for English. It already works well for predicting the next character when it has seen only a small amount of text, but becomes less accurate as the amount of training text increases. I have managed to improve this by havi…

The thing that kills me is that to the vast majority of human beings the nonsensical technobabble above is probably indistinguishable from real, honest, logically consistent technobabble.[a] Soon enough, someone will replicate the Sokal hoax[b] with GPT-3 or another state-of-the-art language-generation model. It's not hard to imagine GPT-3 writing a fake paper that gets published in certain academic journals in the s…

Kind of annoying 'hoax', though. Obviously you can publish garbage in fringe journals if you leverage pre-existing prestige and position like Sokal did. Doesn't really say anything about the social sciences.

You can also publish a lot of nonsense in certain chinese journals that optimize for quantity in quality, in whatever field you want.

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#428
post #238
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many attempts did it take or did you just choose the first one? I have to admit, this is passing my turing test...

Really? I got about halfway through and realized that the comment had no point . If you tried to summarize what it was arguing, beyond the first sentence, I don't think you could make a coherent summary. Maybe the real lesson is we don't expect human-written comments on discussion fora to be particularly coherent....

Not being sarcastic, but I know some people with less coherent writing than this. A lot of people struggle to make a point, use vague language, or wander in and out of topics quite easily.

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#429

When I read comments like this--and yes I read the article and understand it was generated by an algorithm--I can't help but think the next AI winter is around the corner. This does not impress me in the slightest. Taking billions and billions of input corpora and making some of them _sound like_ something a human would say is not impressive. Even if it's at a high school vocabulary level. It may have underlying corr…

I think you are underestimating what an advance these models are over previous NLP models in terms of quality. Before GPT-2 we didn't even have models that could reliably generate grammatical sentences. Now we have things that generate coherent (if not beautiful) paragraphs. It seems easy in retrospect, but some of the smartest people around have been working on this for decades.

Is there a term for the casual dismissal of breakthrough technologies and ever-moving goalposts for what is considered impressive?

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade. thing is technological development is not linear, you can't predict future development based on the last n decades. You can't assume an AI winter is not coming because it most likely is

> because it most likely is Is this not you making a prediction, the very sentence after saying one can not predict the future?

No. This is like saying that if today is not raining, a rainy day is coming
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