OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin
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Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin
#2> I further predict that this will spark a creative gold rush among talented amateurs to train similar models and adapt them to a variety of purposes, including: mock news, “researched journalism”, advertising, politics, and propaganda.
The first mention of 'Elon Musk' (who left the board) and this sentence alone gave me the tip-off that GPT-3 had generated that (and the whole blog) and it's following prediction makes no sense.
Sure, it may be used for nefarious purposes, but no-one can train GPT-3 in any acceptable time except for those with access to large GPU/ASIC compute power (OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, NVIDIA, etc.) Without the model, it is not possible to adapt it to any other purpose, unless OpenAI does it for them. Without a detection mechanism, it is very dangerous.
Nice try and a great GPT-3 hype experiment, (mostly by friends of OpenAI). I look forward to the day that GPT-3 gets proper scrutiny from the actual wider tech industry before we can safely use it with detection methods.
Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin
#3> I further predict that this will spark a creative gold rush among talented amateurs to train similar models and adapt them to a variety of purposes, including: mock news, “researched journalism”, advertising, politics, and propaganda. The first mention of 'Elon Musk' (who left the board) and this sentence alone gave me the tip-off that GPT-3 had generated that (and the whole blog) and it's following prediction make…
Propaganda, advertising, and politics (arguably all the same thing) absolutely have access to the funds for this.
Facebook and Google, the biggest investors in state of the art ML are advertising companies. Their customers have the funds to do this independently.
Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin
#4I published a response today to the sudden hype urging people to temper their expectations for GPT-3 a bit: https://minimaxir.com/2020/07/gpt3-expectations/
GPT-3 is objectively a step forward in the field of AI text-generation, but the current hype on VC Twitter misrepresents the model's current capabilities. GPT-3 isn't magic.
Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin
#5For those responding to the title or first half of the article, you are missing the point!
Edit: the comments that are reacting to the article's content are from people who didn't read it to the end, wow.
Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin
#6Personally, in 2014 I had put the odds of seeing human-level AI during my lifetime at around 10%.
Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade.
Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin
#7> I further predict that this will spark a creative gold rush among talented amateurs to train similar models and adapt them to a variety of purposes, including: mock news, “researched journalism”, advertising, politics, and propaganda. The first mention of 'Elon Musk' (who left the board) and this sentence alone gave me the tip-off that GPT-3 had generated that (and the whole blog) and it's following prediction make…
> no-one can train GPT-3 in any acceptable time except for those with access to large GPU/ASIC compute power (OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, NVIDIA, etc.)
Any state actor has access to large compute power
Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin
#8Personally, in 2014 I had put the odds of seeing human-level AI during my lifetime at around 10%. Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade.
> Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade.
thing is technological development is not linear, you can't predict future development based on the last n decades. You can't assume an AI winter is not coming because it most likely is
Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin
#9I published a response today to the sudden hype urging people to temper their expectations for GPT-3 a bit: https://minimaxir.com/2020/07/gpt3-expectations/ GPT-3 is objectively a step forward in the field of AI text-generation, but the current hype on VC Twitter misrepresents the model's current capabilities. GPT-3 isn't magic.
One of the biggest issues is with cherry-picking. Generative ML results benefit greatly from humans sampling the best results. They are capable of producing astonishing results but don’t do this consistently this has a huge impact on any effort to productize. For example I’ve seen quite a few examples of text->design, text->code, with GPT-3 you could build a demo in a day, but the product will probably be useless if it’s not delivering results 50%+ of the time
Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin
#10> I further predict that this will spark a creative gold rush among talented amateurs to train similar models and adapt them to a variety of purposes, including: mock news, “researched journalism”, advertising, politics, and propaganda. The first mention of 'Elon Musk' (who left the board) and this sentence alone gave me the tip-off that GPT-3 had generated that (and the whole blog) and it's following prediction make…
Propaganda, advertising, and politics (arguably all the same thing) absolutely have access to the funds for this. Facebook and Google, the biggest investors in state of the art ML are advertising companies. Their customers have the funds to do this independently.
Giving certain people, highly visible on social media, pre-public access to the model, and letting them cherry pick their completions to post without the prompt or amount of tries, is a smart form of propaganda/hype building/PR management, that we have come to expect from "GPT-2 is too dangerous to release" openAI
Sometimes I forget that, while this model was created by scientists, and released with a scientific paper, it is essentially a for-profit business product, and such cheap tricks deserve harsh criticism.