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OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

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Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#11

Post by staticassertion »

graham_paul wrote: post #8
drcode wrote: post #6

Personally, in 2014 I had put the odds of seeing human-level AI during my lifetime at around 10%. Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade.

> Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade. thing is technological development is not linear, you can't predict future development based on the last n decades. You can't assume an AI winter is not coming because it most likely is

> because it most likely is

Is this not you making a prediction, the very sentence after saying one can not predict the future?

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#14

Post by perl4ever »

staticassertion wrote: post #11
graham_paul wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade. thing is technological development is not linear, you can't predict future development based on the last n decades. You can't assume an AI winter is not coming because it most likely is

> because it most likely is Is this not you making a prediction, the very sentence after saying one can not predict the future?

Saying an AI winter is coming isn't saying how long it will be for or what the magnitude will be.

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#15

Post by drcode »

graham_paul wrote: post #8
drcode wrote: post #6

Personally, in 2014 I had put the odds of seeing human-level AI during my lifetime at around 10%. Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade.

> Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade. thing is technological development is not linear, you can't predict future development based on the last n decades. You can't assume an AI winter is not coming because it most likely is

I neither claimed tech development was linear, nor am I basing future AI progress on the rate of progress in the last decades.

I am basing future AI progress on what AI can do in July of 2020, which I believe already represents substantial progress towards that goal.

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#16

Post by coderintherye »

minimaxir wrote: post #4

I published a response today to the sudden hype urging people to temper their expectations for GPT-3 a bit: https://minimaxir.com/2020/07/gpt3-expectations/ GPT-3 is objectively a step forward in the field of AI text-generation, but the current hype on VC Twitter misrepresents the model's current capabilities. GPT-3 isn't magic.

I don't know, this seemed pretty close to magic to me:

https://twitter.com/jsngr/status/1284511080715362304

Granted, it seems like there was a lot of behind the scenes work to make that happen.

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#18

Post by davidgerard »

minimaxir wrote: post #4

I published a response today to the sudden hype urging people to temper their expectations for GPT-3 a bit: https://minimaxir.com/2020/07/gpt3-expectations/ GPT-3 is objectively a step forward in the field of AI text-generation, but the current hype on VC Twitter misrepresents the model's current capabilities. GPT-3 isn't magic.

What this means is that GPT-3 is good enough to fool a crypto VC.

@balajis being generated by GPT-3 would make a lot of sense, though.

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#19

Post by qeternity »

Oh man. I don’t know where to begin. I’ll just say that this analysis is predicated on someone who thinks Bitcoin has proven anything in the real world. We’re way past BTC being a subculture experiment. Everyone knows about it. And still nobody (in the statistical sense) uses it.

Re: OpenAI's GPT-3 may be the biggest thing since Bitcoin

#20

Post by drcode »

nbardy wrote: post #9
minimaxir wrote: post #4

I published a response today to the sudden hype urging people to temper their expectations for GPT-3 a bit: https://minimaxir.com/2020/07/gpt3-expectations/ GPT-3 is objectively a step forward in the field of AI text-generation, but the current hype on VC Twitter misrepresents the model's current capabilities. GPT-3 isn't magic.

One of the biggest issues is with cherry-picking. Generative ML results benefit greatly from humans sampling the best results. They are capable of producing astonishing results but don’t do this consistently this has a huge impact on any effort to productize. For example I’ve seen quite a few examples of text->design, text->code, with GPT-3 you could build a demo in a day, but the product will probably be useless if…

I agree, but on the other hand one has to be careful not to be blind to the obvious power of a new technology, simply because it cannot be immediately turned into $$$.
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