The global fertility rate is falling • Hacker News Board

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#731

Post by lazyjones » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 2:35 PM UTC

majewsky wrote: post #694

menybuvico wrote: post #634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The irony in all this is that fertility tends to drop amongst people considered successful and (mostly) progressive, meaning that conservative unsuccessful people will out-breed them. One would think that the logical thing to do if you're rich and successful would be to have many kids, and see if it's due to genetic factors.

> The irony in all this is that fertility tends to drop amongst people considered successful and (mostly) progressive, meaning that conservative unsuccessful people will out-breed them. If this argument really holds, why has the world become so much more progressive over the last two centuries?

> why has the world become so much more progressive over the last two centuries?

It only became so progressive since the 1970's, the 50's were fine. The reason: drugs.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#732

Post by bloodorange » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 2:37 PM UTC

koolba wrote: post #81

grugagag wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also education and contraception that have a role. I’d also add the high cost of living too as well as rising inequality.

Those are excuses that people make up to soothe their egos. The real reason people do not have children is selfishness. They think that the financial and time cost will deprive them of other material joys. It’s as sad as it is misguided.

You could also have another perspective: The people who bring children into this world, without the future child's consent are being selfish because _they_ want that child. You can never know if that person will grow up to have a miserable life.

I know many would consider it a ridiculous argument but I find your label of selfishness similar.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#733

Post by sudosysgen » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 2:40 PM UTC

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #429

sudosysgen wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have a good enough understanding of capitalism to know that the average person will not benefit from a shrinking labour pool. You have no clue just how devastating a shrinking population would be to an economy where the real average wage hasn't increased in 40 year.

The economy in Britain improved after the black death wiped out half the population.

That was under feudalism, not capitalism.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#734

Post by Rua4yGUZ4lT1Bbv » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 2:41 PM UTC

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

People had more children when there was less economic opportunity.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#735

Post by Nimitz14 » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 2:43 PM UTC

moultano wrote: post #293

This trend among other things is one of the inspirations for writing this essay that was well received on here a few weeks ago. https://moultano.wordpress.com/2020/06/21/the-defaults-dont-... I really feel like we don't have any effective model for how to integrate parenthood in our lives anymore, and so having kids has become almost an affectation or a hobby, rather than something that everyone bases their life arou…

Great read thanks for posting.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#736

Post by ashtonkem » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 2:46 PM UTC

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

A shrinking, aging population would in no way make this better. It would make it worse.

Aging societies spend more on healthcare, have a smaller working base, and typically don’t have the kind of growth that makes it easy to borrow money to invest in new things. The typical result is slow economic growth, high taxes, and low levels of services for workers.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#737

Post by sudosysgen » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 2:46 PM UTC

throwaway936482 wrote: post #414

sudosysgen wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have a good enough understanding of capitalism to know that the average person will not benefit from a shrinking labour pool. You have no clue just how devastating a shrinking population would be to an economy where the real average wage hasn't increased in 40 year.

So change the economic system? The balls to the wall neoliberal, winner takes all, no safety net model that the Anglo American world has been moving towards for the past thirty years is not the only one. The Anglo American post war consensus model which was more redistributory correlated with higher growth rates (not saying it caused them, kinda hard to tell) while the Northern European corporatist, Scandinavian mixe…

But neither the Northern European nor Japanese models can cope with negative real growth in consumption. Nor negative real growth in savings.

There is a fundamental issue in capitalism that there must always be growth. Without growth, the entire concept of investment breaks down and the business cycle cannot continue. You could totally replace it with something that isn't capitalism, but that's not a small endeavor and won't happen without massive conflict.

Our current reality is that if the population shrinks significantly, there is a good likelihood that will happen.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#738

Post by kilroy_jones » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 2:47 PM UTC

Apocryphon wrote: post #484

ACow_Adonis wrote: post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, but it's also hacker news. If we just want positive anecdotes and feel-good inspirational stories that don't get debated, and which don't fully address the point or get to the heart of the matter, we could go to a Tony Robbins seminar, and I say this as a both a dad and as someone who doesn't want to go to a Tony Robbins seminar. Honestly, I appreciate the point counter point.

True, but as someone who has seen many a HN discussion that lacks any sort of empathy or comprehension of social norms or conventions, I cannot help but to advocate for emotional literacy and for the understanding of emotional appeal. Perhaps some of the tech companies and platforms we are seeing face so many problems right now could benefit from emotional literacy. Too much head and not enough heart, one could say.

How would you suggest they broach the point that not every family turns out well? That some end up with kids watching from the car while their mom fights dad's drunken mistress in the Safeway parking lot while dad himself watches on, smoking a cigarette and having a beer?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#739

Post by ashtonkem » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 2:50 PM UTC

greggman3 wrote: post #553

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

I see this idea here in several places. Effectively "more money = more kids" There is ZERO evidence that's the case. In fact all evidence points to the opposite. The more money people have the less likely they are to have children. I'm not suggesting that we should therefore lower people's incomes. Only suggesting that the idea that his has anything do with lacking economic opportunity has zero basis in fact. The ric…

The “more money == more kids” hypothesis comes from the observation that women are typically having fewer kids than they reportedly want to have, implying that something is holding them back from having the number of kids they want.

In places like America, the cost of childcare is commonly pointed to. However this phenomenon is common enough across multiple countries with different labor arrangements that I genuinely doubt its just the cost.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#740

Post by grugagag » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 2:50 PM UTC

schmookeeg wrote: post #189

koolba wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are excuses that people make up to soothe their egos. The real reason people do not have children is selfishness. They think that the financial and time cost will deprive them of other material joys. It’s as sad as it is misguided.

I am sorry you find my wife and I's decision selfish, sad, and misguided. You needn't think about it, really, as our decision doesn't concern you in the slightest. It may help you to travel. Some time in other continents made us realize -- we have plenty of people already. The planet will do just fine without one or three more from us.

I personally don't and don't judge you either. As I said earlier, I and my wife didn't want children until one came along; that eventually has changed us. But we will stop at one and I agree that there are plenty of people already.