The global fertility rate is falling • Hacker News Board

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#601

Post by ido » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 10:33 AM UTC

vladvasiliu wrote: post #488

ido wrote: post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is all you've taken from the above than we've read 2 very different comments. The point about lonely old people is only 1 (and i would say not the most significant) point in the argument. I have a wife and 2 (small) children. There is nobody in the world I love more than my family - it used to be only my wife previously and now grew from 1 person to 3. This has such a profound effect on my happiness now (in m…

I think you should definitely have friends, with or without kids. But from I see around me, I get the impression that having friends is difficult. Even more so when people have to juggle kids and a career. There's a certain isolation that seems to set in. I'm sure a lot of people don't have the kids with the purpose of not being alone in old age. But I also get that there's some kind of "soft expectation", for lack o…

    Even more so when people have to juggle kids and a career.

I think this is mostly in the first 5-10 years, when the kids grow a bit older it should start getting easier.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#602

Post by bondarchuk » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 10:34 AM UTC

rimliu wrote: post #560

thehappypm wrote: post #206

Give it a few generations. In the past, having a family was status quo and basically required. Now, it’s a choice. Natural selection will heavily favor those with the “I want kids!” gene.

That's not how natural selection works. Most of us want sex because of that gene. But we do know about contraception, which natural selection knows nothing about.

Contraception is part of the environment in which natural selection occurs, in that sense it "knows" about it. Concretely, if there is a set of genes that makes it more likely to have children in spite of contraception, that can be selected for.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#603

Post by ClumsyPilot » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 10:37 AM UTC

sweeneyrod wrote: post #595

capableweb wrote: post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know Americans on the internet usually view their country with rose-shaded glasses but this comment has to take the price. I don't know the number, don't think anyone does, but off the people I know, 100% would never want to move to any state in the US. Probably the real number of people wanting to immigrate to the US is closer to 0% than 100%.

The people you know are almost certainly not representative of the world at large. Maybe 80% is a bit high, but the number is certainly over 50%. The median global person earns less than $3000/year.

It's not very usefull to make a point of: "unlike you, some people have to live under tyrany or war"

My bet is that of people living in functioning democracies, the percentage will be in like 20-25%.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#604

Post by ido » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 10:37 AM UTC

silveroriole wrote: post #511

freetanga wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the correlation between what you put in and what you get out is much higher. I had to give up a number of hobbies and intelectual pursuits in order to be there for my kids. Building a caring, trust-based long term relationship is hard work - sharing the same blood and providing a roof and a meal is not enough, which sadly is many people’s definition of parenting. I know I am giving up things. I know there is…

It sucks knowing that you’re the reason your parents gave up hobbies, dreams, money, travel etc that they could otherwise have had. I know, like you, parents usually think it’s worth it but it’s not nice to think that my mom would probably have been a more fun, interesting person if I didn’t exist. The admittance that your life has to change and you have to give things up so that another human can do maybe things ins…

My mum made that choice of her own free will & to this day often repeats how having 4 kids was the best decision she ever made & if she could go back she would have had even more. My conscience is clear.

Also I don't think I have become a less fun, interesting person since having kids. I may have become wiser (and more tired).

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#605

Post by spodek » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 10:38 AM UTC

zelphirkalt wrote: post #377

Thank goodness! I hope this is true. Please let it be true, that the population will decrease in the example countries and elsewhere. Seems to be about the only thing, that can protect us from further overpopulating the planet with more humans. Even better, if it is caused by more education and more similar or equal opportunity for women. We should start celebrating women, who choose not to get children or at least n…

Agreed!

A great resource on the subject is Countdown by Alan Weisman.

I did a few podcast episodes on my Leadership and the Environment podcast on population:

https://shows.acast.com/leadership-and-the-environment/episo...

http://joshuaspodek.com/guests/alan-weisman

For those who think we can grow forever, Tom Murphy's Do The Math blog covers it in his post Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#606

Post by ido » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 10:39 AM UTC

moises_silva wrote: post #555

silveroriole wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sucks knowing that you’re the reason your parents gave up hobbies, dreams, money, travel etc that they could otherwise have had. I know, like you, parents usually think it’s worth it but it’s not nice to think that my mom would probably have been a more fun, interesting person if I didn’t exist. The admittance that your life has to change and you have to give things up so that another human can do maybe things ins…

I'm not sure why there's this insistence that 'giving up' time spent on hobbies makes you less interesting or less fun. You can have some hobbies, learn new things, etc; while being a parent. Sure you don't have as much time to do it, but having kids can also make you learn things and get perspective you wouldn't otherwise. Also, worth remembering the alternative to such a "pointless cycle" is a pointless short exist…

In the long enough term everything is pointless - the meaning comes from what we give meaning to (which can include raising a family).

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#607

Post by wolfhumble » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 10:41 AM UTC

evgen wrote: post #517

bananaface wrote: post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't even think it's logically valid. I think if you raise your children well, the chance that they'll be there for you in old age is very high. If you don't have kids, the chance you will have friends that loyal is low. Blood is thicker than water, people should be realistic. How do you measure that statistically? All you have are personal experiences. Saying, "not statistics, isn't valid" is obtuse, it leaves yo…

> Blood is thicker than water, people should be realistic. Somewhat off-tangent here, but this is a frequent misunderstanding of this particular quote. The actual quote is: “the blood of the covenant is thicker than the water of the womb” and it means the exact opposite of what we now use it for. The intended meaning is that relationships entered into as adults are much stronger and deeper than those we are forced in…

> Somewhat off-tangent here, but this is a frequent misunderstanding of this particular quote. The actual quote is: “the blood of the covenant is thicker than the water of the womb” and it means the exact opposite of what we now use it for.

I hadn't heard of that expression before, so I looked a little at the corresponding Wikipedia page [0] and the sources that talks about this quote [1 and 2]. I also looked at Quora question about the quote [3].

From what I understand, there is no way one with any certainty can say that: "the blood of the covenant is thicker than the water of the womb” => "blood is thicker than water".

There doesn't seem to be a direct "the blood of the covenant . . ." quote either.

My own thought: I think it is possible that the meaning of both quotes can be true at the same time:

a) If you make a blood covenant with someone => Strong bond, and maybe stronger than with family members.

b) If something serious happens in your life, family bonds tend to be stronger than that of a friend, at least if you don't have some type of covenant (in a broad sense) with that friend.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_is_thicker_than_water

[1] https://archive.org/details/shaggydogsblacks00jack/page/94/m...

[2] http://www.bac2torah.com/covenant-Print.htm#SectionII

[3] https://www.quora.com/Where-did-the-phrase-The-blood-of-the-...

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#608

Post by ClumsyPilot » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 10:43 AM UTC

bananaface wrote: post #436

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

The problem with the economic line of thinking is: Why do peasants in Africa have more children than Lawyers in New York? Builders in Arkensas have more kids than tech workers in San Francisco? Poor people in general have more kids than rich people. It doesn't fit the data.

You can't just draw a parallel between a poor agricultural worker and a New York Lawyer, because obviously there are a thousand confounding factors, anything from education to where is the nearestvdoctor, so general stavility of the country.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#609

Post by ClumsyPilot » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 10:44 AM UTC

lazyjones wrote: post #550

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

We're going to be a multi-planetary species. All we need is people willing to take risks instead of peons trying to live a cosy, uneventful and "sustainable" life in their government-allocated single-room apartments. And having children really isn't a huge risk even for the most incompetent.

I mean in the middle ages if you had 12 children and a third survived, you've done well.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#610

Post by rwmj » Wed, Jul 15, 2020, 10:45 AM UTC

jb775 wrote: post #356

qubex wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You jest, but the economic effects of all of this are severe. A total regression in the real-estate market (because stagnant demographics means the existing housing stock will roughly suffice or even exceed demand) will have severe effects. Basically the end to growing demand, and thus essentially an end to growth-orientated capitalism.

My long term prediction is that once the boomers start dying off in droves, we'll face a real estate crisis as their houses flood the market...and many less desirable neighborhoods throughout suburbia will turn into mini ghost towns.

You're describing Japan, now. Large numbers of abandoned houses, towns in rural areas emptying out, and the process is accelerating. An interesting article: https://spikejapan.wordpress.com/2014/08/16/yubari-withering...