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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#181

Post by durnygbur »

zanny wrote: post #160
durnygbur wrote: post #105

Social systems are zero sum game between individuals paying in and receiving benefits from them. Meantime the salaries are stale, salary deductions only increase, and corporations (ehem formally "charities") funnel out billions annually through tax havens and heavens. In countries where social systems are not that mature and trustworthy (e.g. post-Communist countries) even the most qualified like doctors and engineer…

Its never been "sustainable", its just a question of when society wants to bring the proverbial chickens home to roost.

"Purge of the needy and old", something like in the Bergamo area in Italy this March and April... and marginalization of the homeless and incarcerated like in the US.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#183

Post by bing_dai »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #172
jjoonathan wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Old calculus: "I need to have lots of children so they support me in my old age. No matter the cost." New calculus: "Between retirement accounts and welfare, society will support me in my old age. Children are really, really expensive." It's economics, plain and simple. Of course there's a "top" and the "top" does dictate the structure. If you doubt that, ask: what percent of your income do you pay in taxes, and what…

Society can only support you in old age if there are enough younger people around. Unfortunately, even though kids are needed for society to function and keep going, not much of the cost of raising kids is socialized, at least in the states. Day care for one kid where I live is $1700/month and rising, you have to be rich to afford it.

"Society can only support you in old age if there are enough younger people around."

I do not agree with that. In my opinion, technology advancements (say, driverless cars) will make reduce the amount of young people needed to support for older people.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#184

Post by walleeee »

jariel wrote: post #103
dutch3000 wrote: post #12

another chicken little article. worthless speculation about the future. who knows what will happen if the population declines. one thing is for certain though. it will be a positive for the environment. at some point the ponzi scheme, infinite growth society must have it’s day of reckoning

"worthless speculation about the future" No really - trends are real, this is science, and we use them to actually estimate the future, in much the same way we try to do so with climate and other things. "It will be positive for the environment" Possibly not true. Low-birth Westerners are already the #1 emitters of Co2 by a margin, so it's not so linear. " population declines. one thing is for certain though. it will…

Calling it a tremendous risk doesn't seem warranted given that it will not produce a significant drop in the earth's total population this century (see my comment above). A top-heavier age spread may strain political and economic systems: these are the social effects you mention. But from an ecological standpoint, not much will change for some time.

There is tremendous risk in covering the planet with ourselves and our waste, though; imho the more relevant risk, especially since we're pretty much locked into the pattern now.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#185

Post by sk5t »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #124
_bxg1 wrote: post #10

There's a short-term problem of society becoming "top-heavy", where there might not be enough young to pay for the continued care of the old. But in the long run this seems like a win. I wonder what impact it might have on climate projections.

I'd like to see an accounting of the real resources (not money) that elderly require vs children and young to middle aged adults. I'm suspicious because it sounds much like the undue burden tripe you hear about disabled people.

At least in the US, expenses in later life seem not too bad, until the last 3-5 years--at which point healthcare cost absolutely blows everything out of the water. Like, more healthcare cost in one week at 85 than an entire year at 50. Especially once a person is unable to safely walk to the bathroom or prepare a simple meal without falling. Meds, ambulance transport, non-emergency wheelchair transport, rental of various equipment, home health aides, physical therapy, speech therapy, rehab or nursing care, palliative care. The costs are just stupefying.

Edit: I've replied mostly along the lines of the financial costs, but the human service component is by far the largest part of it, that's the main resource consumed.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#186

Post by ThrowawayR2 »

scarmig wrote: post #146

The good: a lower total population is good for climate change. Additionally, humans can focus on living in the most habitable, productive areas, improving per capita efficiency. The neutral: day-to-day things are unlikely to be affected much. Fewer farmers, but fewer mouths to feed. This applies to most consumables. The mildly negative: for knowledge intangibles, a lower total population means a lower number of scien…

> "A society where younger workers having to pay taxes 2x higher or more than they do today..."

Most likely social welfare programs for the elderly will simply be allowed to collapse. Nothing will motivate the young to vote like having their paychecks eaten away.

I feel bad for young people graduating now; if they're not able to save the _entire_ cost of their own retirement over the course of their career, they are just plain screwed.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#187

Post by snowwrestler »

corysama wrote: post #90

This article is quite exasperated, but doesn't say much. I'm far from an expert in this area, but here's what I've read elsewhere: We're quickly moving from the population explosion problem to the population implosion problem. No one planned it or made it happen. But, it looks like we're not actually going to overflow the planet with people standing shoulder to shoulder. Instead, the problem we're facing moving forwa…

Here are two scary storylines that get discussed pretty regularly here on HN:

a) AI and machine learning will raise productivity so much that they will steal millions of jobs from people.

b) Global population will eventually go into decline, which will crash the economy by killing growth.

But, these two stories look far less scary when considered together. In fact they seem directly complementary, although the timing is not likely to work out perfectly, so it won't necessarily be smooth sailing along the way.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#188

Post by zanny »

empath75 wrote: post #27

Why is immigration not the answer to this? Eventually developed countries are going to have to get over their bigotry and open the borders.

Just having people in your country doesn't equate to economic productivity. Western nations will want highly educated young people doing hard mechanical labor that often takes two decades of training to get proficient at.

And yes, we will reap the most educated and skilled from less developed nations throughout this century. Which.. just condemns said countries to perpetual destitution. If the best and brightest you invested in leave to go to other countries you both have no incentive to invest in them in the first place or you wasted your economic surplus that is needed to progress your society towards becoming industrialized in itself.

The uneducated poor of the world are not useful to industrialized society. Its why every industrializing nation always adopts universal education to at least make capable laborers out of the poor. Its unlikely to change without world powers deciding to be way more altruistic about their economic exploitation of the poorest regions of the planet.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#189

Post by schmookeeg »

koolba wrote: post #81
grugagag wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also education and contraception that have a role. I’d also add the high cost of living too as well as rising inequality.

Those are excuses that people make up to soothe their egos. The real reason people do not have children is selfishness. They think that the financial and time cost will deprive them of other material joys. It’s as sad as it is misguided.

I am sorry you find my wife and I's decision selfish, sad, and misguided. You needn't think about it, really, as our decision doesn't concern you in the slightest.

It may help you to travel. Some time in other continents made us realize -- we have plenty of people already. The planet will do just fine without one or three more from us.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#190

Post by Guy2020 »

snowwrestler wrote: post #152
Guy2020 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some people have extraordinary wealth and they have the ability to set economic incentives, policies, and cultural influences for certain types of behavior to emerge. There's a hierarchy to our societies, there are people with great power and people with little to no power. I guess the greatest magic trick of the modern world is to make people believe such things do not exist.

IMO a greater magic trick is convincing folks like you that these rich people are actually powerful enough to control fundamental behaviors like sex and reproduction. It's a profoundly dis-empowering and anti-democratic message, which is of course why a lot of those rich people are happy for you to believe it. The reality is this: in every instance we know of, making education and birth control available to women (no…

Are you saying there are no mechanisms that allow wealthy people to influence human behavior on a large scale? Please read "Propaganda" by Edward Bernays.
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