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California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

nytimes.com

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Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#121

Post by mchusma »

EricE wrote: post #120
standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

Sweeden didn't lock down at all: https://youtu.be/z34ILhFs-xs?t=182 There is little evidence the lockdowns did a damn thing.

Resuming the lockdown, particularly in such a sudden fashion, is just blow after blow.

Such small benefit for such enormous cost.

I am not convinced this could get through the legislature. I'm also confused how "emergency powers" can last for Governor's to have almost unlimited power for 4 months now.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#122

Post by guenthert »

Rebelgecko wrote: post #115
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The governor's been clear that's part of the intended strategy; counties will be allowed to rush forwards as long as infection rates remain low, and then pull back if infections rise. He's consistently warned that some rollbacks should be expected.

I was happy when the state released clear metrics for what would allow a county to move onto Phase 2.5 and Phase 3 of the reopening. Initially one of the key metrics is that the county have 0 deaths and no more than 10 new coronavirus cases per 100k residents over a 2 week period. Then the number became 25 cases per 100k residents. Then it became 100 cases per 100k residents. Then my county was permitted to mostly re…

Which county might that be? Only Los Angeles has more than a few hundred death due to COVID total.

In Santa Clara county still about 20 times as many people die every day due to unrelated causes than due to COVID. That makes it hard to justify the economic damage, which is devastating to those who lost their job and are waiting for unemployment benefits for months now.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#123

Post by Rebelgecko »

guenthert wrote: post #122
Rebelgecko wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was happy when the state released clear metrics for what would allow a county to move onto Phase 2.5 and Phase 3 of the reopening. Initially one of the key metrics is that the county have 0 deaths and no more than 10 new coronavirus cases per 100k residents over a 2 week period. Then the number became 25 cases per 100k residents. Then it became 100 cases per 100k residents. Then my county was permitted to mostly re…

Which county might that be? Only Los Angeles has more than a few hundred death due to COVID total . In Santa Clara county still about 20 times as many people die every day due to unrelated causes than due to COVID. That makes it hard to justify the economic damage, which is devastating to those who lost their job and are waiting for unemployment benefits for months now.

Yup, LA. I think we're currently ~50 deaths and 2500 new confirmed cases per day

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#124

Post by dwaltrip »

standardUser wrote: post #8
pmoriarty wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Perhaps California could have attempted a middle ground strategy. Let the virus spread just a slight amount more than occurred during the initial lockdown in order to gradually spread immunity." It's not even clear yet whether exposure to this virus confers immunity, nor how long such immunity would last if it does exist. From the newest episode of This Week in Virology [1]: Daniel Griffin: The tough thing, right, i…

Though it has not been conclusively proven, literally all signs point to meanginful immunity and virtually no signs point to the opposite. Dozens of vaccines are being developed on this assumption, and there have been zero confirmed instances of reinfection of a fully recovered individual.

I agree, I think there is likely meaningful immunity. But, it is very much up in the air on how long that immunity will last.

SARS immunity lasts a few years (1-3 years I believe). On the other hand, several extant coronaviruses contribute to the common cold, and my understanding is that immunity for these is only a few months or less. This is partly why one can catch a cold multiple times in a year.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#125

Post by bigcorp-slave »

nostromo wrote: post #24
woeirua wrote: post #9

The only question now is, which state will win the race to be the first to reinstitute stay-at-home orders?

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were neve…

Nostromo has been consistently spreading misinformation about the pandemic on HN since it started. When are they going to be banned?

Having a wide and healthy discussion on this site does not require that we entertain people advocating mass death.

The constant refrain that this isn’t a big deal seems belied somewhat by the five hundred thousand dead people.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#126

Post by jonwithoutanh »

nickff wrote: post #19
AlexandrB wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The effectiveness of a middle ground strategy is pure conjecture. Canada shut down fast and hard - like California - and is not seeing cases spike. Perhaps because we re-opened slowly and people are still generally cautious - wearing masks in public and maintaining social distance. Or perhaps because we have not been getting wildly mixed messages from local/provincial/national leaders about the severity of the situat…

Canada did not act in unison, it was very province-by-province. Ontario locked down quite hard, whereas British Columbia only required shutdowns of service businesses, and suggested everyone stay in.

You paint an incredibly unfair picture with your comment.

British Columbia shutdown hard and fast, controlled the disease well, and has daily case numbers in the single digits.

Ontario fucked everything up, had massive spread in their care homes, and still has hundreds of cases a day.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#127

Post by mlyle »

pmoriarty wrote: post #63
refurb wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why you’re getting downvoted. Seropositive tests have show the vast majority develop an immune response, how long that lasts we don’t know, but even if it’s only 6 months, that will reduce spread. You don’t create an epidemic plan based on edge cases. And it’s important to note that the tests are looking for viral RNA. Viral RNA can be found even if virus are inactivated in the absence of an active infection…

No one yet knows whether the antibodies detected in seropositive tests actually confer protection against getting sick from this virus. For some viruses, like, say, HIV, you can have lots of antibodies against it, but still be sick with HIV. It is not yet clear whether SARS-CoV-2 is like HIV in this sense or if the antibodies produced by the body after infection with the virus actually confer protection against futur…

> No one yet knows whether the antibodies detected in seropositive tests actually confer protection against getting sick from this virus.

We do know when we do detailed antibody assays on people who are seropositive, that most have developed neutralizing antibodies

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#128

Post by QuercusMax »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #61
QuercusMax wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with this strategy is that it's been incredibly confusing; I'm getting whiplash from all the back-and-forth. The news reporting has been bad, as well, not clearly distinguishing between statewide and per-county (or for counties on the "watch list", which changes daily). My friends who are in the service industry have to figure out from day-to-day what they're going to be doing. This is just a giant mess.

Yeah, I think that's fair. I've been plugged in enough that I don't feel the whiplash much, but I can't imagine how confusing it would be to understand what's happening from just scrolling through headlines in the morning.

...and just this evening Santa Clara county (most of the valley) announced they're shutting down gyms and salons on Wednesday, because they expect the state will shut us down anyway. Craziness.

I'm glad our state is doing something, it's just so unpredictable.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#129

Post by statop »

nostromo wrote: post #24
woeirua wrote: post #9

The only question now is, which state will win the race to be the first to reinstitute stay-at-home orders?

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were neve…

You guess, keep hearing, seems pretty clear.

Thanks doctor.

Maybe next you can educate us on why the data you linked literally contradicts everything you said. The trend in deaths is increasing.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#130

Post by ryandrake »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #11
freeqaz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the current sentiment on the pandemic like in California, given that they've been on lockdown for the longest? Are people getting antsy? Is there an "index" that measures sentiment across different states?

"Lockdown" is perhaps a misleading description. The restrictions on private gatherings are entirely unenforced, and everyone I know has long since started having whatever gatherings they personally feel they need.

Exactly. I wish people would stop referring to the feeble efforts the states implemented as "lockdowns". It's an absurd word to use. There were no lockdowns in the USA. There were a bunch of half-assed "Stay At Home" orders, which may as well have been called Stay At Home Suggestions because they were largely ignored. Nothing was locked. Nobody was locked in their homes. Few people, if any, were even subject to enforcement actions. Everywhere you looked during the so-called "lockdown" people were out and about, horsing around, going to parties, trying desperately to maintain business as usual, flexing their freedom just because. Every single place that the government begged people to not go, people went, saying "Nyaa Nnyaa! You can't tell me what to do!" Total eight-year-old mentality. The whole thing was a complete farce. Please, people, stop calling it a lockdown.
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