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California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

nytimes.com

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Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#11

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

freeqaz wrote: post #5
standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

What is the current sentiment on the pandemic like in California, given that they've been on lockdown for the longest? Are people getting antsy? Is there an "index" that measures sentiment across different states?

"Lockdown" is perhaps a misleading description. The restrictions on private gatherings are entirely unenforced, and everyone I know has long since started having whatever gatherings they personally feel they need.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#12

Post by nickff »

freeqaz wrote: post #5
standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

What is the current sentiment on the pandemic like in California, given that they've been on lockdown for the longest? Are people getting antsy? Is there an "index" that measures sentiment across different states?

It might be helpful to look at Google mobility trends; I know that there was 'shutdown fatigue' almost everywhere (according to GMT).

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#13

Post by redis_mlc »

standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

> California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus

LAX and SFO had daily flights from Wuhan and Shanghai, so it's likely that corona has been here since Dec. The test results say 3% positive, but it's likely much higher.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#14

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

pettazz wrote: post #6
standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

The reason for case counts staying relatively low in those places has a lot less to do with "herd immunity" and a lot more to do with still being careful. Even though a huge number of people were infected, it was still a very small amount of the population overall, not anywhere near enough to affect the transmission rate with no restrictions. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/herd-immunity-questioned-aft... In MA we're…

You've gotta be a bit skeptical of models like this. The source data it's drawn from looks pretty indistinguishable from a flat line; there's no reason to necessarily expect their model is precise or accurate enough to distinguish 1.04 from 0.96.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#15

Post by [deleted] »

pettazz wrote: post #6
standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

The reason for case counts staying relatively low in those places has a lot less to do with "herd immunity" and a lot more to do with still being careful. Even though a huge number of people were infected, it was still a very small amount of the population overall, not anywhere near enough to affect the transmission rate with no restrictions. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/herd-immunity-questioned-aft... In MA we're…

[deleted]

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#16

Post by AlexandrB »

standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

The effectiveness of a middle ground strategy is pure conjecture. Canada shut down fast and hard - like California - and is not seeing cases spike. Perhaps because we re-opened slowly and people are still generally cautious - wearing masks in public and maintaining social distance. Or perhaps because we have not been getting wildly mixed messages from local/provincial/national leaders about the severity of the situation or what to do about it.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#17

Post by standardUser »

wtvanhest wrote: post #4
standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

I think we should wait to make determinations on cause until we see if that changes once the weather turns in the north and Europe and people return to heated spaces. If this was really a matter of herd immunity, Florida wouldn’t be getting hammered right now.

Why would Florida have high levels of immunity? It was never hit hard until recently.

And I don't think this is about herd immunity, but simply about reducing the percent of the population that can infect and become infected, thus driving down the transmission rate.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#18

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

AlexandrB wrote: post #16
standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

The effectiveness of a middle ground strategy is pure conjecture. Canada shut down fast and hard - like California - and is not seeing cases spike. Perhaps because we re-opened slowly and people are still generally cautious - wearing masks in public and maintaining social distance. Or perhaps because we have not been getting wildly mixed messages from local/provincial/national leaders about the severity of the situat…

My understanding is that Canada is currently at the stage of reopening that California is rolling back to, where gyms, indoor restaurants, and movie theaters are closed.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#19

Post by nickff »

AlexandrB wrote: post #16
standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

The effectiveness of a middle ground strategy is pure conjecture. Canada shut down fast and hard - like California - and is not seeing cases spike. Perhaps because we re-opened slowly and people are still generally cautious - wearing masks in public and maintaining social distance. Or perhaps because we have not been getting wildly mixed messages from local/provincial/national leaders about the severity of the situat…

Canada did not act in unison, it was very province-by-province. Ontario locked down quite hard, whereas British Columbia only required shutdowns of service businesses, and suggested everyone stay in.
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