21–30 of 76 posts
I find it useful and illuminating to just come up with some common large spaces and make a few estimates… - remember the last time you were at the movies? Three people dropped dead during your screening of Avengers. - two people dying per subway car on your morning rush hour commute into the city - seven of the kids in your child’s high school graduating class die. he probably knew at least a couple by name. … but th…
And that's not accounting for the massive side effects, or the fact that the fatality risk is much higher for vulnerable populations.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It becomes far worse than that, as our medical system can't handle 62M hospitalizations. (Nor 60-70% of that, which is more realistic, as it's unlikely to hit 100% of the population.) NYC's hospitals came close to the breaking point; Italy's exceeded it in spots.
The author addresses that: > This model assumes that the question’s hypothetical is correct and the fatality rate is 1%. It also assumes for the sake of argument 100% infection. (In reality, of course, neither of these is a perfect match to reality. The infection rate will never hit 100%, but the fatality rate in a widespread infection is likely to be greater than 1%, because health care services will be overwhelmed.…
> For every one person who dies: > 19 more require hospitalization. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. ... > One study published in March found that out of 416 _hospitalized_ Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage. How many other mistakes can you spot?
What is the mortality rate of one of the more severe stains of the common cold or the flu? I'm sure we've had one of those that got to 0.5% or more in recent history? Does that mean 0.5% is too low to shut everything down?
First, the flu doesn't have the other severe consequences outlined in the article. Second, basically everyone except small children has had the flu, and has some immunity to it, while we're all "immunologically naive" vis-a-vis SARS-CoV-2.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
First, the flu doesn't have the other severe consequences outlined in the article. Second, basically everyone except small children has had the flu, and has some immunity to it, while we're all "immunologically naive" vis-a-vis SARS-CoV-2.
Young people are basically at 0% mortality from covid
With adults, flu and COVID-19 are different: they have encountered the flu before, so it doesn't rampage through a population. COVID-19 does.
In other words: for flu, we basically have achieved some level of herd immunity already.
> For every one person who dies: > 19 more require hospitalization. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. ... > One study published in March found that out of 416 _hospitalized_ Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage. How many other mistakes can you spot?
I agree never closing the economy would’ve been a total disaster. But the math here is bad.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
First, the flu doesn't have the other severe consequences outlined in the article. Second, basically everyone except small children has had the flu, and has some immunity to it, while we're all "immunologically naive" vis-a-vis SARS-CoV-2.
Young people are basically at 0% mortality from covid
Earlier quoted context omitted.
First, the flu doesn't have the other severe consequences outlined in the article. Second, basically everyone except small children has had the flu, and has some immunity to it, while we're all "immunologically naive" vis-a-vis SARS-CoV-2.
Young people are basically at 0% mortality from covid