How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
1–10 of 76 posts
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#2Flawed response. Every single human in the country or the world for that matter will not get infected by the virus
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#3[deleted]
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#4The tl;dr:
> So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:
> 3,282,000 people dead.
> 62,358,000 hospitalized.
> 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
> 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
> 9,846,000 people with strokes.
> 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
> 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#5I find it useful and illuminating to just come up with some common large spaces and make a few estimates…
- remember the last time you were at the movies? Three people dropped dead during your screening of Avengers.
- two people dying per subway car on your morning rush hour commute into the city
- seven of the kids in your child’s high school graduating class die. he probably knew at least a couple by name.
… but the points this author makes about problems the survivors face even more striking, so, yeah.
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#6The tl;dr: > So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: > 3,282,000 people dead. > 62,358,000 hospitalized. > 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. > 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. > 9,846,000 people with strokes. > 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. > 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.
It becomes far worse than that, as our medical system can't handle 62M hospitalizations.
(Nor 60-70% of that, which is more realistic, as it's unlikely to hit 100% of the population.)
NYC's hospitals came close to the breaking point; Italy's exceeded it in spots.
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#7What is the mortality rate of one of the more severe stains of the common cold or the flu? I'm sure we've had one of those that got to 0.5% or more in recent history?
Does that mean 0.5% is too low to shut everything down?
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#8https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Fed GDP Now Latest estimate: -35.5 percent — July 9, 2020
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#9It's shut down most countries in the world, not just the U.S.
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#10And how can 1% of the U.S. population shut down its wealth in their safes?