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California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

nytimes.com

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Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#51

Post by nostromo »

morsch wrote: post #38
nostromo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were neve…

> We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It happened a week ago. It's easier to see when you look at a moving average. https://imgur.com/a/xGLRjGa https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-daily-deaths-trajec...

Yes, there's a blip at the end of the chart.

But the headline is clearly that deaths have fallen ~70% even as total (reported) cases has continued to grow exponentially.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#53

Post by nostromo »

hvac wrote: post #49
nostromo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were neve…

The linked NYT article says that deaths are up 28% over the last two weeks.

... after dropping 80% from the peak

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#54

Post by refurb »

standardUser wrote: post #41
jhowell wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> all signs point to meanginful immunity and virtually no signs point to the opposite. Here is a story from CNN via the Mercury News about 3 teachers sharing a classroom. Anecdotal, but makes me think these are signs of a lack of immunity. A positive, negative, positive test. > A month after they caught the virus that killed their colleague, Martinez and Skillings are still struggling. > Martinez says fatigue is ling…

Right, when millions and millions of people become infected with an illness there will be a wide range of edge cases. But if reinfection within 6 months was anything other than exceptionally rare it would be obvious by now. Now if you had a peer reviewed study to link instead of media reports, I would be very interested.

Not sure why you’re getting downvoted.

Seropositive tests have show the vast majority develop an immune response, how long that lasts we don’t know, but even if it’s only 6 months, that will reduce spread. You don’t create an epidemic plan based on edge cases.

And it’s important to note that the tests are looking for viral RNA. Viral RNA can be found even if virus are inactivated in the absence of an active infection or the shedding of active viruses.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#55

Post by banads »

throw0101a wrote: post #39
nostromo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were neve…

> deaths (the more important number) Is it though? > For every one person who dies: > 19 more require hospitalization. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. > 10 will have permanent lung damage. > 3 will have strokes. > 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. > 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive functio…

>18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.

Adding critical context: Nearly half of americans are obese and/or have heart disease, and ~650,000 are killed by it each year.

How much lower would all those numbers be if americans simply exercised and ate healthy on a regular basis?

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#56

Post by phonebanshee »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #11
freeqaz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the current sentiment on the pandemic like in California, given that they've been on lockdown for the longest? Are people getting antsy? Is there an "index" that measures sentiment across different states?

"Lockdown" is perhaps a misleading description. The restrictions on private gatherings are entirely unenforced, and everyone I know has long since started having whatever gatherings they personally feel they need.

Thinks are very different here in Seattle. No one I know is gathering with anyone indoors. You might have a couple friends over and stay outside, but indoor gatherings with multiple people are shocking insanity and just wouldn't happen.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#57

Post by recursive »

Agustus wrote: post #42
CerealFounder wrote: post #28

I dont understand for the life of me why the state cant get tough on masks and distancing with the rule of law. All they do is put out suggestions and guildelines. Until they flex the guidlines with some muscle it's just theatre

Enforcement is the state forcing its will on you eliminating the individual’s ability to evaluate risk. Eric Garner is dead because of government rule flexing you suggest. The government should buy ads showing the efficacy of face masks and use the ad council to pretty it up. If you have politically connected individuals flouting the rules, people will salami tactics their way to not wearing the masks. *edit: thanks…

FYI it's "flouting".

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#58

Post by refurb »

throw0101a wrote: post #39
nostromo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were neve…

> deaths (the more important number) Is it though? > For every one person who dies: > 19 more require hospitalization. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. > 10 will have permanent lung damage. > 3 will have strokes. > 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. > 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive functio…

How does this pass the sniff test (or am I misinterpreting it?).

Assume 1% fatality rate for infections (it’s actually lower), you’re saying somewhere 19% to 60% (depending on overlap of those categories) have permanent damage?

That’s clearly not what we’re seeing.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#59

Post by [deleted] »

nostromo wrote: post #24
woeirua wrote: post #9

The only question now is, which state will win the race to be the first to reinstitute stay-at-home orders?

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were neve…

[deleted]

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#60

Post by phonebanshee »

wtvanhest wrote: post #4
standardUser wrote: post #3

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

I think we should wait to make determinations on cause until we see if that changes once the weather turns in the north and Europe and people return to heated spaces. If this was really a matter of herd immunity, Florida wouldn’t be getting hammered right now.

Don't forget that idea is inverted for lots of the US (like Florida and Arizona). You gather indoors during the summer, in air conditioned spaces. Winter is when you're outside more often.
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