Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The stock market and economy have parted ways

washingtonpost.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

371–380 of 542 posts

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#371

Post by woeirua »

thrownaway996 wrote: post #312
woeirua wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, large scale tent encampments. Right now, you have relatively small encampments in some metro areas. I expect to see tens of thousands of people living in tent cities in every major metro area by October.

Why? Eviction processes in most cities take months, and if the 2008 crisis is any indication, even _then_ they'll be slow to leave. Just logistically, how do you physically evict tens of thousands of people in every major metro area in that short a period of time? I'm not downplaying the seriousness of what's happening, as the economic impact will be catastrophic. But physically evicting large percentages of a popula…

Lawful evictions take time, yes, but as the system becomes overwhelmed desperate landlords are going to take matters into their own hands. Cops, strained by lots of other problems just wont have the time or resources to respond to all the calls of people who had the locks changed on them illegally.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#372

Post by jonny_eh »

Spivak wrote: post #368
mhuffman wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I built a valuation model of TSLA and came up with a fair intrinsic price of less than $200. Of course it is hard to value anything right now because coming up with a discount rate is fraught and you have government manipulation of the asset market as well. I don't know if there are waaaay smarter and informed people than me that know something about TSLA's long-term growth prospects or it is just bing meme-ed into o…

Question from someone who has no dog in this fight. If your model is right would it be in you best interest to short their stock or do you believe that the market can "remain irrational" forever?

Shorting can cause you to go broke in a time frame much faster than "forever".

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#373

Post by subsubzero »

bpt3 wrote: post #331
subsubzero wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, maybe I am out of touch but almost all boomers I know are extremely well off, they started as scientists or other typical professional occupations and now own assets in the millions, basically housing in California and other areas. Prop 13 has helped them(their prop. taxes do not go up) as well as dirt cheap college costs when they went to college. Housing was rather cheap as well considering salaries,…

The boomers you know (white collar professionals in the Bay Area apparently) are not a representative sample of the entire population. The group you mentioned has done well in every generation in modern times.

Some are, some are not. They are all friends parents and some family, a few others are blue collar business owners or workers. One striking example is a friend who's Dad(in the construction business) owns multiple properties and his son(late 30's) rents. They are doing the exact same job and it shows how skewed things are based on 30-40 years ago(his Dad owned a house at his age).

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#374

Post by jonny_eh »

S_A_P wrote: post #325
_bxg1 wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something I don't see a lot of people talking about with Tesla is that over the last couple years, the writing has appeared on the wall about internal-combustion. Most developed nations have set a hard end-date for it at this point. That makes an electric car company a really appealing long-term investment.

Agreed, but even though it could be elon being elon, even he thinks Tesla is trading too high.

But constantly rails against short traders.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#375

Post by mhuffman »

Spivak wrote: post #368
mhuffman wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I built a valuation model of TSLA and came up with a fair intrinsic price of less than $200. Of course it is hard to value anything right now because coming up with a discount rate is fraught and you have government manipulation of the asset market as well. I don't know if there are waaaay smarter and informed people than me that know something about TSLA's long-term growth prospects or it is just bing meme-ed into o…

Question from someone who has no dog in this fight. If your model is right would it be in you best interest to short their stock or do you believe that the market can "remain irrational" forever?

Yes it would, but I am very, very nervous that the actions of the government and the capricious actions of retail investors would go against me, so I have no stomach to do it.

As an example, image that you shorted bitcoin half-way up its rise ... you would be broke! Possibly less than broke! On the other hand, you would have eventually been right, just the timing on a bubble stock (or possible meme stock, in this case) can make that sort of thing dangerous.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#376

Post by dragonwriter »

neutronicus wrote: post #366
subsubzero wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, maybe I am out of touch but almost all boomers I know are extremely well off, they started as scientists or other typical professional occupations and now own assets in the millions, basically housing in California and other areas. Prop 13 has helped them(their prop. taxes do not go up) as well as dirt cheap college costs when they went to college. Housing was rather cheap as well considering salaries,…

I expect housing to get a lot cheaper when the boomers actually need to wring some liquidity out of the real estate they've been holding (hoarding) to pay for elder care. Even if they do something like barter free housing for live-in care instead of selling, you expect a big effect on the rental market and a corresponding effect on the value of investment properties.

> I expect housing to get a lot cheaper when the boomers actually need to wring some liquidity out of the real estate they've been holding (hoarding) to pay for elder care.

Boomers are between 56 and 74, a lot of them already have either liquidated real estate holdings by downsizing even if not explicitly for care, or passed it on, whether inter vivos or by inheritance (because quite a lot of them have died, and you can't take it with you.)

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#378

Post by Lavery »

subsubzero wrote: post #278

There are some very strange happenings goings on with a small number of stocks. AMZN, TSLA, AAPL and a few others have seen stratospheric gains in the past few months with especially Tesla with no clear reason why. Not trying to knock tesla but there is something that I have never seen happening and given store closures, spiking covid cases and virus antibodies that seem to last months and in some cases weeks these a…

One other note on Tesla in particular, that I think the other comments here have largely missed:

Tesla is--and has been for a while now--the largest market cap company that is not included in the S&P 500. To be considered for inclusion in the S&P, companies must show at least 4 consecutive quarters of profitability.

Tesla's next earnings release (which is in roughly two weeks) has the possibility of being that fourth consecutive quarter. S&P isn't then required to include them, but it seems likely they would. Once they did so, index funds and ETFs that benchmark to the S&P (which is the biggest single benchmark of such funds, by a lot) would then be forced to buy the stock (at whatever price it traded at the time) in proportion to its ranking in the index. At one point today, Tesla was top-10.

Clearly this is a bit of a conspiracy theory, but this type of behavior (bidding up shares in front of index inclusion) isn't that unusual. What is unusual is that Tesla has gotten so large prior to inclusion: stocks normally join in the 500s - 300s or so, and grow from there.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#379

Post by blaser-waffle »

tossAfterUsing wrote: post #262
earthtolazlo wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market cap != market liquidity If I create 100 billion FakeCoins and sell one to my grandmother for $10, suddenly FakeCoin has a 1 trillion dollar market cap. It doesn’t mean there’s anywhere near that much money actually in the market to support that valuation.

this is precisely right and why nobody should ever buy a bitcoin under any circumstance.

I dunno, they're pretty useful for buying drugs and VPNs...

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#380

Post by pc86 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #345
pc86 wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Edit: Disregard the below because I can't do math. But leaving it for context given the response. Boomers by definition are going to be in their late 70's at the absolute youngest. You're talking about their children, who have comparatively little (and is coincidentally why a lot of people hate the Boomer generation).

Baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. They're currently between 56-76 years old (roughly 76 million in U.S.). Anything older than that is the “silent generation“ (born 1928 to 1945). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silent_Generation

sigh

Apparently date math is hard. You're 100% right.

Post reply on HN