The stock market and economy have parted ways • Hacker News Board

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#151

Post by claudeganon » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #122

NotSammyHagar wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Herd immunity may not work either. Today there's this article about people getting it twice and other viruses have already been known to let you get infected twice. https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twic...

> He was unable to get an antibody test after his first infection It is entirely possible the first infection was a false positive.

There's more than one example of possible reinfection linked in the article.

>Ditchek said he encountered a second reinfected patient on Wednesday from the same family. This patient had accumulated so many antibodies from his previous COVID-19 infection that he was able to donate plasma to other coronavirus patients two times.

"He'd been negative for seven weeks and sure enough was re-exposed," Ditchek said, and diagnosed positive for COVID-19 this week.

https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/monmouth/news/central-jers...

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#152

Post by FlyMoreRockets » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

nsnick wrote: post #117

vit05 wrote: post #39

In addition to everything he mentioned, there is still the possibility that immunity, acquired after infection, is only for a short period. Nothing makes sense. Everyone was already waiting for some kind of correction before Covid. And now, in addition to the covid, we have conflict tensions, unemployment and lack of income on a global scale. Stock market became a casino. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12…

If immunity acquired after infection is only for a short period, immunity acquired after a vaccine will also only be for a short period.

Very likely, yes. However, it is much less debilitating to get a shot every three months.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#153

Post by vmception » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

adaisadais wrote: post #97

I spoke to my financial advisor a month ago and he told me he was not worried of a major and sustained drop as FED and Congressional intervention had helped curtail that before it spiraled out of hand. But I cannot help but see current market prices and see current for lease and boarded up building. I wonder if he was correct. I wonder if the advice he has given me is wrong? I believe we are about 9months away from t…

The advice your financial advisor gave you is no more insightful than the stuff you read in editorials and website forums.

Financial advisors exist for the people that are predisposed to appealing to authority, and also have no time for that trade.

They are nowhere near as specialized as like an oncologist who you would still want a second opinion from. Most programmers have the cognitive abilities to pass a financial advisor's licensing exam with one week of preparation.

Just for perspective.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#154

Post by marvin » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

atlgator wrote: post #10

ideals wrote: post #6

The amount of friends I have that are out of work and posting screenshots of robinhood on ig and snap right now is wild. This feels like crypto 2017 all over again. I suppose the difference is there is a real market under it all and retail traders aren't entirely driving this, but they're the ones left holding the bag when the curtain drops.

Or real estate circa 2006. When your cab driver starts offering unsolicited stock tips, that's the time to get out.

Where are you getting out to? A 40% inflated money supply of US dollars?

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#155

Post by jansan » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:20 PM UTC

kindatrue wrote: post #103

atlgator wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or real estate circa 2006. When your cab driver starts offering unsolicited stock tips, that's the time to get out.

Ah, the era of NINJA loans. My haircut guy went from renting to "owning" 2 homes. Those were amazing times.

I love the term NINJA loans. Did it exist in the real world before The Big Short?

The Big Short scene: https://youtu.be/H-XINT-hL5I?t=60

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#156

Post by earthtolazlo » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:20 PM UTC

thisisnico wrote: post #74

earthtolazlo wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has he heard of Tether? It might be worth telling him that the entire cryptocurrency market it being propped up by 10 billion “dollars” of what is essentially Monopoly money.

Market cap of Bitcoin is: 117.81 billion U.S. Market cap of Tether USDT: $9.16 billion Tether would account for 7.8% of all Bitcoin. Not sure if that would count as being propped up. It's significant but not entirely propped up, there is a ton of real money in there too.

Market cap != market liquidity

If I create 100 billion FakeCoins and sell one to my grandmother for $10, suddenly FakeCoin has a 1 trillion dollar market cap. It doesn’t mean there’s anywhere near that much money actually in the market to support that valuation.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#157

Post by pjc50 » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:20 PM UTC

3pt14159 wrote: post #13

Loughla wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's where the FOMO comes in. I, and many, many of my friends, missed out on Bitcoin in college. Many of my friends are posting the same things you state on their social media, and are making it clear they won't be left behind this time. Not sure what all that means, but it's fascinating.

It means a massive crash is coming. Money printer go brrr is funny, but it's not capable of propping up the entire market forever. There's a flight to safety that happens when countries really start printing.

> There's a flight to safety that happens when countries really start printing

This is normally great for the dollar. Where else are you going to go? Switzerland has had a "negative rates, please go away" policy for a while now.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#158

Post by invalidOrTaken » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:21 PM UTC

snarf21 wrote: post #8

The have parted ways because the Fed is buying lots more than just treasuries. There is so much money desperate for returns because interest rates are so low. That is why we have such inflated equities right now. It is a mental game: if people don't know the economy is awful, maybe they won't change their behavior and maybe it will actually get better before they realize it.

"But though we had plenty of money / There was nothing our money could buy..."

--- Rudyard Kipling, "The Gods Of The Copybook Headings"

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#159

Post by pjc50 » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:21 PM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #32

DeonPenny wrote: post #26

Theres literally no where to put you money now. The stock market would be down if you could put money in any government bonds that you thought would immediately start increasing spending or any stock or bond market that would do any better. Emerging markets are shaky with China destroying HK and corona running through cities everywhere in the world. If you could even remotely tell me a safer place to get returns then…

If people start expecting negative returns from the market, 0% returns from govt bonds sound pretty good.

Switzerland are now at -0.75% and still getting investors.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#160

Post by woeirua » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:23 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #23

hitpointdrew wrote: post #20

> “I’m not sure what will trigger a sustained sell-off in stocks, but surging [virus] infections and another round of more business closures will be difficult for investors to ignore much longer.” An alternative place to put investments will trigger it. When your options are savings accounts paying 0.25% interest, and treasury notes paying nothing, and CD's being garbage, what are your alternatives for investing? If…

Given the retail drive of this rally, bills coming due could have a similar effect.

Without a doubt, the coming wave of evictions and foreclosures is going to pop the bubble. Once the tent cities (maybe we should call them "Trump hotels") start springing up in every metro area around the US, I think the market will finally lose this steam. The US is headed for a dire economic situation. At that point, the only thing that can save us is an effective vaccine that confers long lasting immunity. Anything less means total economic annihilation.