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The stock market and economy have parted ways

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Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Printing money has not had much impact on consumer prices. But it seems very plausible that it is causing inflation of asset prices, including equities, and that that is a distortion of the market that could have negative long-run repercussions.

Exactly this. The FED and the ECB have been printing money like crazy for years, however this money did not go to the man in the street but to banks and indirectly to other financial institutions. And those don't spend their money in the grocery store but in the stock market. The classic economical laws are not broken, they are still in full effect and we see their effect in the inflated share prices.

Meh, most of what they are buying is just our own governments debt [0]. Now, you can certainly argue investors are buying more equities now that there aren't as many treasury securities to buy, but equity returns aren't even abnormal from historical returns. Inflation adjusted Annualized S&P 500 Returns with Dividends Reinvested for the past 15 years are 6.738% versus 7.690% for the 15 years before that [1].

[0]: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm

[1]: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#362
post #305

There are some very strange happenings goings on with a small number of stocks. AMZN, TSLA, AAPL and a few others have seen stratospheric gains in the past few months with especially Tesla with no clear reason why. Not trying to knock tesla but there is something that I have never seen happening and given store closures, spiking covid cases and virus antibodies that seem to last months and in some cases weeks these a…

Your speculation doesn't appear unfounded to me, but I think you're painting the picture with too broad of a brush here. AMZN, TSLA, and AAPL (just to limit the discussion to the ones you explicitly mentioned) are tech stocks, but have fundamentally different business dynamics that I would expect to be affected quite differently by the effects of COVID. * AMZN: huge swaths of new and existing are customers moving the…

AMZN is the most obvious one, considering the general view that Covid-19 isn't going anywhere any time soon.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#363

I spoke to my financial advisor a month ago and he told me he was not worried of a major and sustained drop as FED and Congressional intervention had helped curtail that before it spiraled out of hand. But I cannot help but see current market prices and see current for lease and boarded up building. I wonder if he was correct. I wonder if the advice he has given me is wrong? I believe we are about 9months away from t…

my first (only) financial advisor was a manager at RadioShack for 10 years before he got the advisor job. relatedly, i once applied as a network admin at Ed Jones. They didn't have their shit together when i showed up for the interview, and gave me the questions for the financial advisor interview instead. it was an automatic process, about 100 questions that were some variant of "how good or bad do you feel about as…

Financial advisor =/= certified financial planner (CFP or CFA).

It's like how there are people at HR Block who will do your tax returns, and know a lot about the process -- but they're not a CPA, which has a formal requirement.

Similar to paramedics vs. doctors/surgeons, etc.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#364
post #9
post #6

The amount of friends I have that are out of work and posting screenshots of robinhood on ig and snap right now is wild. This feels like crypto 2017 all over again. I suppose the difference is there is a real market under it all and retail traders aren't entirely driving this, but they're the ones left holding the bag when the curtain drops.

That's where the FOMO comes in. I, and many, many of my friends, missed out on Bitcoin in college. Many of my friends are posting the same things you state on their social media, and are making it clear they won't be left behind this time. Not sure what all that means, but it's fascinating.

Because options price in risk, assuming risk is accurately priced then there is never really a particularly great time to make money off of it. As a retail investor I highly doubt you would have enough information to beat the overall market at pricing in risk.

With regular stocks, sure they might well be in a bubble but if you knowingly invest money in a bubble, you have to time the pop. If you bought bitcoin at $14k you made almost 50% in a few days but if you didn’t sell then, you’d have been underwater for years

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "what else are we doing to do with that money?" TINA

Care to define TINA?

"There is no alternative", as noted. Associated with Mad Mags:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_is_no_alternative

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only half of those over 55 have any retirement savings [1], the other half have no retirement pennies to speak of. While not great for online discussion, I can understand where the sentiment comes (the evidence is clear older generations strip mined the country economically [and continue to do so], pulled the ladder up behind them, and then are shocked when younger citizens are resentful). [1] https://www.gao.gov/ass…

I don't know, maybe I am out of touch but almost all boomers I know are extremely well off, they started as scientists or other typical professional occupations and now own assets in the millions, basically housing in California and other areas. Prop 13 has helped them(their prop. taxes do not go up) as well as dirt cheap college costs when they went to college. Housing was rather cheap as well considering salaries,…

I expect housing to get a lot cheaper when the boomers actually need to wring some liquidity out of the real estate they've been holding (hoarding) to pay for elder care.

Even if they do something like barter free housing for live-in care instead of selling, you expect a big effect on the rental market and a corresponding effect on the value of investment properties.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, maybe I am out of touch but almost all boomers I know are extremely well off, they started as scientists or other typical professional occupations and now own assets in the millions, basically housing in California and other areas. Prop 13 has helped them(their prop. taxes do not go up) as well as dirt cheap college costs when they went to college. Housing was rather cheap as well considering salaries,…

I expect housing to get a lot cheaper when the boomers actually need to wring some liquidity out of the real estate they've been holding (hoarding) to pay for elder care. Even if they do something like barter free housing for live-in care instead of selling, you expect a big effect on the rental market and a corresponding effect on the value of investment properties.

I think this’ll be governed by how quickly their health declines, how easy it is to borrow against their equity (and the bank liquidating the property after they’ve passed), and how aggressive local jurisdictions are with clawing at assets to pay for long term care (Medicaid, five year look back). The can keeps getting kicked.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#368

There are some very strange happenings goings on with a small number of stocks. AMZN, TSLA, AAPL and a few others have seen stratospheric gains in the past few months with especially Tesla with no clear reason why. Not trying to knock tesla but there is something that I have never seen happening and given store closures, spiking covid cases and virus antibodies that seem to last months and in some cases weeks these a…

I built a valuation model of TSLA and came up with a fair intrinsic price of less than $200. Of course it is hard to value anything right now because coming up with a discount rate is fraught and you have government manipulation of the asset market as well. I don't know if there are waaaay smarter and informed people than me that know something about TSLA's long-term growth prospects or it is just bing meme-ed into o…

Question from someone who has no dog in this fight. If your model is right would it be in you best interest to short their stock or do you believe that the market can "remain irrational" forever?

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#369

There are some very strange happenings goings on with a small number of stocks. AMZN, TSLA, AAPL and a few others have seen stratospheric gains in the past few months with especially Tesla with no clear reason why. Not trying to knock tesla but there is something that I have never seen happening and given store closures, spiking covid cases and virus antibodies that seem to last months and in some cases weeks these a…

I built a valuation model of TSLA and came up with a fair intrinsic price of less than $200. Of course it is hard to value anything right now because coming up with a discount rate is fraught and you have government manipulation of the asset market as well. I don't know if there are waaaay smarter and informed people than me that know something about TSLA's long-term growth prospects or it is just bing meme-ed into o…

Here's one way to look at TSLA. I see zero chance of Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagon, or GM making all of their direct competitors obsolete.

With Tesla's massive monopoly on driver data (likely a prerequisite for level 5 automation) and head start in driverless tech overal there is absolutely a chance that TSLA puts all the aforementioned companies out of business.

I don't know how likely that is, but it's a hell of a lottery ticket regardless.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Holy shit. 41x! I'm in the wrong world. Even though I'm in the overpaid-programmer-industrial-complex, in an expensive west coast town with an expensive million dollar house and expensive taxes, I can't imagine what it would take to get into evil and profitable investment vehicles like these hedge funds. I just have no exposure to that world.

I'm curious - why do you call the hedge fund world evil? I hear this quite often but where does it come from? I've worked in both a hedge fund and in tech, and I found the former to be less evil and pretentious. People in finance think and say "I want to make a ton of money" while people in tech say "I want to save the world" while thinking "I want to make a ton of money" - resulting in misaligned incentives and impo…

Other people answered you well, but I could sum it up as financialization doesn't help society. It puts up barriers to free trade, monopolizes businesses, adds rentier like barriers to society. A great financial system also makes it easier to get a loan, invest in things, get credit. For wealthy or fortunate people like most programmers this is all great. For poorer people it adds to the tax or drudgery and difficulty of having a good life and affording it.
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