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The stock market and economy have parted ways

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Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#161
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me know when you figure out a better way to put a price on the risk of loaning money. As evil as you may think interest rates are- without a price on the risk of loaning money- access to loans dry up and only the already wealthy will have access to capital.

Loaning money should not be done to make money, it's parasitic. It should purely be a charitable contribution without expecting a return. If the loanee decides, out of his or her own goodness to return more money than they took, then that's up to them. Now the obvious and direct effect of this is that people will generally not loan their money. This is a good thing. The follow up is that they will invest their money…

But here we’re talking about equity (stocks), not bonds (loans). So the interest isn’t coming from loaning, it’s coming from investing.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#162

Theres literally no where to put you money now. The stock market would be down if you could put money in any government bonds that you thought would immediately start increasing spending or any stock or bond market that would do any better. Emerging markets are shaky with China destroying HK and corona running through cities everywhere in the world. If you could even remotely tell me a safer place to get returns then…

> Theres literally no where to put you money now.

Philanthropy always has room.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#163
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed buying bonds isn't pushing Tesla to the 14th largest market cap. It's currently trading $200 per share higher than any analyst recommendation that the WSJ or Yahoo has. Not to mention Hertz, a bankrupt company, has a market cap of 200 million. Something very unusual is going on.

9.5% of float shorted, up 13% mid-day. Short squeeze, methinks. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla

Here is the Volkswagen stock chart from October 2008:

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/htt...

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#164
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no gold bug, but turn some of your cash into gold.

It is actually very hard to get real gold (especially in a form that you can convert back to cash in the future). Just try to get delivery of a gold bullion. And if you succeed, try selling it into the system again, without losing 30%. Paper gold is a bet no different than a stock; it is a bet that the system and your counterparty will both be solvent when you need them.

And that seems to imply that it is a valid alternative, maybe not for large hedge funds but individual investors.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#165
There is nothing strange about the current valuations of the stock markets. Yields of just about every fixed-income security not exposed to stock-like risk is zero.

Global stock market indexes are at a P/E of ~20 - that means a yield/direct return on equity of 5%. This doesn't seem so unreasonable when there are no returns to be found anywhere else. The global economy is still making money, just not hand over fist. Assuming no further catastrophe and no permanent reduction in earnings, the stock market is still a good investment when looking at the returns you get from profitable companies every single day.

The risk premium is very low, yes. Rising returns in other places and an increase in the risk premium would cause a permanent loss when investing at these level, yes.

But you're getting a 5% return if you invest today, albeit exposed to a risk of this number falling. And what is the alternative? Let's say the P/E was at the historical average of 15. That's a yield of 6.5%. That seems unreasonably high to me when other investments yield zero, so of course market prices are going to be bid up until it falls to a more reasonable level. We should be happy that the global yield is still as high as 5%.

Either there will be a correction or a crash in the future, and things will return to normal, or this is just another indicator of a late post-industrial world where capital is very cheap. The third alternative is a global war and destruction of life and wealth on an absolutely tragic scale. That would put us back in known territory real fast.

I can easily imagine today's children hitting their twenties and complaining that the millennials pulled up the ladder, there is now nowhere to park their hard-earned money to make an investment income.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#166
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If immunity acquired after infection is only for a short period, immunity acquired after a vaccine will also only be for a short period.

Very likely, yes. However, it is much less debilitating to get a shot every three months.

It's unlikely that would be sustainable for long for various reasons. You're talking about needing literally tens of BILLIONS of shots a year for the forseeable future?

If immunity is not long lasting, then the only path out is global eradication. We have done it before with smallpox.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are absolutely correct and the reason that the stock market is being so weird is quite simply "what else are we doing to do with that money?" The solution for individuals: cash, gold, options, etc, aren't viable solutions for institutional investors. Imagine that you're in charge of a $1 billion fund, what are you going to do? You can't put that into gold, cash or treasury notes. But all sectors are affec…

Today was one of the few times I saw "social unrest" mentioned in this context. I suspect that will happen a lot more over the next few years. The markets are a wobbling shitpile of unpayable debt just waiting to collapse. That was already true before Covid, but Covid has nailed the coffin shut while the corpse is still alive. I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed is knowingly goosing the twitching body because the alte…

Totally serious- this is one of my favorite comments on HN ever. I don't completely agree but I love the way you said what you said.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#168

Theres literally no where to put you money now. The stock market would be down if you could put money in any government bonds that you thought would immediately start increasing spending or any stock or bond market that would do any better. Emerging markets are shaky with China destroying HK and corona running through cities everywhere in the world. If you could even remotely tell me a safer place to get returns then…

What about real estate?

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're thinking about your personal investments, not someone managing a large investment firm or hedge fund. This simple fixes for your personal investments would be seen as absolutely insane in the professional investment world. You can't just tell your clients "oh I put $100 Billion into some nearly 0% interest investments because I think the market is crazy", especially if the DJIA is having record months. Even th…

Isn't some form of this what the Taleb-advised Universa fund is doing? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-adv...

Holy shit. 41x! I'm in the wrong world. Even though I'm in the overpaid-programmer-industrial-complex, in an expensive west coast town with an expensive million dollar house and expensive taxes, I can't imagine what it would take to get into evil and profitable investment vehicles like these hedge funds. I just have no exposure to that world.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They made it easy for the uneducated investor to invest in companies that see the spotlight on the news. You can invest in minutes and for free now, right from your phone. These people don't do any research on the company. They see news stories on the company all the time, and news stories that the stock went up XX% So when you have people casually buying stocks I feel like they get inflated past the point that makes…

Is there recent data on how much investment originates from retail investors? Are there really enough retail investors on Robinhood and elsewhere to push valuations up this high?

You can see the % of shares held by institutions

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA

Compare Tesla at 57.93% to Ford at 55.06%

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