The stock market and economy have parted ways
241–250 of 542 posts
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#242I spoke to my financial advisor a month ago and he told me he was not worried of a major and sustained drop as FED and Congressional intervention had helped curtail that before it spiraled out of hand. But I cannot help but see current market prices and see current for lease and boarded up building. I wonder if he was correct. I wonder if the advice he has given me is wrong? I believe we are about 9months away from t…
The advice your financial advisor gave you is no more insightful than the stuff you read in editorials and website forums. Financial advisors exist for the people that are predisposed to appealing to authority, and also have no time for that trade. They are nowhere near as specialized as like an oncologist who you would still want a second opinion from. Most programmers have the cognitive abilities to pass a financia…
Advisors are about behavioral control. The last thing you want to do is have your advisor trading up a storm in your portfolio. They are not incentivized to trade because they have to justify it. You're not incentivized to have them trade because passive management beats out active almost all the time.
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#243I spoke to my financial advisor a month ago and he told me he was not worried of a major and sustained drop as FED and Congressional intervention had helped curtail that before it spiraled out of hand. But I cannot help but see current market prices and see current for lease and boarded up building. I wonder if he was correct. I wonder if the advice he has given me is wrong? I believe we are about 9months away from t…
Do not underestimate the distorting effects of the government. When we read about trillions of dollars we find it very hard to comprehend what that means in terms of actual market impact and price discovery. Right now I would not bet against the markets in the next year. If we cannot find a resolution to coronavirus by early 2021, I would start getting worried about market contagion.
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#244Market in January == market today
World in January != World today
But that's an overly simplistic view of the world. There have been winners and losers, namely tech in the winning camp and retail in the losing camp.
Our world is forever changed and the innovations and ideas that come about in the coming years to deal with this change will mostly come from tech and will be fascinating to watch
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#245Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is actually very hard to get real gold (especially in a form that you can convert back to cash in the future). Just try to get delivery of a gold bullion. And if you succeed, try selling it into the system again, without losing 30%. Paper gold is a bet no different than a stock; it is a bet that the system and your counterparty will both be solvent when you need them.
Not that I'm advising anyone to get them, but what would be the counterparty risk with gold ETFs? You don't believe their guarantees that they are backed up with actual gold? eg: https://etf.invesco.com/gb/private/en/product/invesco-physic...
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Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#246Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is part of the issue that there is just too much money has been printed and hoarded and its creating some weird effects? The government has been printing money for a long time, to stimulate the economy, provide spending money, etc. Due to 80/20 rule, rich get richer effects, etc, a large portion of money the government prints ends up in the hands of a relatively small group who doesn't spend it but rather tries to in…
Printing money has recently shown to have little impact on inflation. This is likely due in part to lack of consumer spending (can't inflate prices if nobody is buying it anyway) as well as spreading the USD across billions of people in dozens of interconnected economies that base off the dollar. The recent $5 trillion injection from the Fed (buying bad debt/assets) and Treasury (stimulus/PPP) may simply show that we…
Printing money has not had much impact on consumer prices. But it seems very plausible that it is causing inflation of asset prices, including equities, and that that is a distortion of the market that could have negative long-run repercussions.
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you are absolutely correct and the reason that the stock market is being so weird is quite simply "what else are we doing to do with that money?" The solution for individuals: cash, gold, options, etc, aren't viable solutions for institutional investors. Imagine that you're in charge of a $1 billion fund, what are you going to do? You can't put that into gold, cash or treasury notes. But all sectors are affec…
Today was one of the few times I saw "social unrest" mentioned in this context. I suspect that will happen a lot more over the next few years. The markets are a wobbling shitpile of unpayable debt just waiting to collapse. That was already true before Covid, but Covid has nailed the coffin shut while the corpse is still alive. I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed is knowingly goosing the twitching body because the alte…
> That was already true before Covid
I think there's a lot of people who don't remember or realize this. And it bothers me that having conversations now takes so much effort to address that particular part of the context: "they were having econ troubles before covid was on the radar"
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#248Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Fed buying bonds isn't pushing Tesla to the 14th largest market cap. It's currently trading $200 per share higher than any analyst recommendation that the WSJ or Yahoo has. Not to mention Hertz, a bankrupt company, has a market cap of 200 million. Something very unusual is going on.
9.5% of float shorted, up 13% mid-day. Short squeeze, methinks. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla
... and, two hours later, back down to +1%, still mid-day.
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#249Earlier quoted context omitted.
Today was one of the few times I saw "social unrest" mentioned in this context. I suspect that will happen a lot more over the next few years. The markets are a wobbling shitpile of unpayable debt just waiting to collapse. That was already true before Covid, but Covid has nailed the coffin shut while the corpse is still alive. I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed is knowingly goosing the twitching body because the alte…
Fed will continue printing until Boomers die off... there is a lot of wealth locked up in 401k that needs to be disbursed. This block votes and they vote often and if their little pennies are threatened, they will vote people out. Edit: If you think these market rises are anything other than a way for the rich to rinse their money before the market bombs, I have a bridge to sell you, it's very pretty.
Imagine referring to an entire generations' life savings as "their little pennies."
Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways
#250Earlier quoted context omitted.
Holy shit. 41x! I'm in the wrong world. Even though I'm in the overpaid-programmer-industrial-complex, in an expensive west coast town with an expensive million dollar house and expensive taxes, I can't imagine what it would take to get into evil and profitable investment vehicles like these hedge funds. I just have no exposure to that world.
I'm curious - why do you call the hedge fund world evil? I hear this quite often but where does it come from? I've worked in both a hedge fund and in tech, and I found the former to be less evil and pretentious. People in finance think and say "I want to make a ton of money" while people in tech say "I want to save the world" while thinking "I want to make a ton of money" - resulting in misaligned incentives and impo…
today i learned that (for some people) 'impostor syndrome` is a heuristic for cognitive dissonance.