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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#521

Post by j7ake »

twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

It’s not about comparing policy from the top down but rather comparing public opinion of the virus from the bottom up.

Asian cultures have take the virus much more seriously than European cultures and regardless of government policy that is going to be a major determinant of how much the virus spreads.

Put in another way, two countries can apply the exact same policy against the virus but have diverging outcomes because of public opinion of the government, of the virus, and of their fellow citizens.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#522

Post by usrusr »

aaaxyz wrote: post #333
b112 wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will you force them with a gun? To forgo all friends, family, comforts of home, and be literally trapped at work for months? Money doesn't just buy people. You'd essentially be drafting them.

>You'd essentially be drafting them. In every country (except maybe Iceland which doesn't have a standing army), the military has plenty of medically trained soldiers who are used to doing these things away from home for months

That's a drop in the bucket compared to the number of care workers needed, at least in countries that are not massive outliers in terms of both low life expectancy and a very large army.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#523

Post by taneq »

twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

> some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan)

Japan had a strong preexisting culture of wearing a mask when going out in public if you're the slightest bit sick.

> countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States).

The early EU countries (Italy, France, Spain) and the US didn't lock down until far too late when their local epidemics had already spiraled out of control.

The US in particular locked down far too late, too little, and has now re-opened despite still having a huge number of active cases and community transmission. On top of that, it sounds like a large number of people there are still refusing to wear masks.

> Why is it that [...] nations in southeast Asia have negligible deaths

I'm less sure here but I'd guess it's a combination of age demographics (fewer very old people who are most likely to die of the virus), lack of testing/reporting, and higher overall death rates due to disease which masks the effect somewhat.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#524

Post by minusf »

stickfigure wrote: post #500
leto_ii wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pand…

Young people aren't just losing a few months of festivals. A generation of kids are losing a year (possibly more!) of schooling. Young adults are graduating into career-crippling unemployment which may haunt their lives for decades. People are getting laid off, burning through their meager life savings, losing businesses that they've worked themselves half to death to establish. Suicide rates are up. We're just begin…

> All so that 75 year olds can have an extra month or two of average life expectancy?

In a "More or less" episode the insurance industry debunked that "an extra month or two": it's more like 5 years on average in a first world country.

That's some significant grand-parenting time.

Also, "flattening the curve" was not only about trying to save those old people but to not overwhelm hospitals and cemetaries. The system cannot handle so many excess deaths in so little time.

Your argument sounds like we should have let the virus go rampant and in 6 months:

1. let health workers go grazy

2. wipe out all 75+ people from the planet

Maybe the grand-children could give kisses of death to grandparents and problem is solved?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#525

Post by CaptainZapp »

bhupy wrote: post #81
triceratops wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is the same as "no strategy". Without coordination of the lockdowns, travel monitoring, national testing and contact tracing, you're just going to have shifting hotspots of infection. This also leaves behind an embittered population whose lockdown sacrifices were for nothing.

That's not the same as "no strategy", because this level of decentralization is how nation-states work today. It's also, incidentally, how the EU works. There are open borders between member states — and while some member states "closed" their borders, this has been largely unenforceable in land crossings because there are no border patrol agents between every single land crossing between EU member states. Border enf…

> Border enforcements have only been enforced at airports.

That's wrong. Most land borders, also within the Schengen area were closed and only a small amount of people, i.e. citizens, workers were permitted to cross.

Things are slowly opening now within the EU. But that you could just waltz over any old land border is flat out wrong.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#526

Post by pmontra »

leto_ii wrote: post #166
jlmorton wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. The reality is that everyone is prepared to allow others to die for their own convenience. I intentionally phrased that harshly, but it is indisputably true. In the US, 70,000 people died from the infl…

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

> All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way.

Yes, in reality a lot of people die driving cars all around the world no matter the amount of on board safety devices and yet cars are legal everywhere. There are countless similar examples.

Preventable is what people agree or tolerate to prevent.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#527

Post by twblalock »

j7ake wrote: post #521
twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

It’s not about comparing policy from the top down but rather comparing public opinion of the virus from the bottom up. Asian cultures have take the virus much more seriously than European cultures and regardless of government policy that is going to be a major determinant of how much the virus spreads. Put in another way, two countries can apply the exact same policy against the virus but have diverging outcomes beca…

How do you explain the differences in outcome between European countries, or even just between the Scandinavian countries?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#528

Post by hvidgaard »

twblalock wrote: post #499

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

Apart from clear differences in how people act in public spaces when sick, and countries "count" differently.

For instance, in Denmark, each and every dead person that is tested positive for Corona virus, count towards the death toll, even if they died from something obviously different. Even dead people is sometimes tested. It's not the same in all contries.

We will not have the full picture until we analyze the excess mortality rate on the other side of the pandemic. Then we can start to see what did the countries lowest excess death rate per capita do different.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#529

Post by mirimir »

robbiep wrote: post #457
mirimir wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which has worked well in lots of countries Has it really? Lots of people in LTC facilities have died, no?

I’m not talking about Sweden, or the US, or Italy or the UK or France, But NZ, Vietnam, China and Australia (current flare up not withstanding) have pursued policies of lockdowns, contract tracing and heavy testing. Your proposal is more convoluted and relies on the imperfect information we have regarding susceptibilities (genetic susceptibilities) being correct, and being able to scale tests to a couple billion peop…

Sure, but it's likely that this won't be going away. So as soon as you relax lockdown, it may well come back. Unless there's a vaccine, which I'm not betting on. And then there's the chance of another zoonotic virus in a few years. Time will tell, but it may turn out that isolating vulnerable populations is the best long-term strategy.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#530

Post by swinglock »

ojnabieoot wrote: post #316
swinglock wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

False regarding mask wearing; wearing a mask has always been and is still strongly discouraged, instead one should only "stay home if feeling sick".

Thanks for the clarification - I had read recently about Sweden considering a facemask policy but I misremembered it as about making them compulsory. Didn't realize that they were still discouraging it (at least as of late June). > instead one should only "stay home if feeling sick" My understanding is that this isn't true, but maybe you're being a bit pithy and I misunderstood - it's true that there weren't any bans…

Stay home if feeling sick is the strongest message and is also presented as the direct and better replacement for masks in public.
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