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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

511–520 of 720 posts

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current death rate, 10-15 people a day, is insignificant compared to other causes of death. It is not reasonable to talk about percentage differences when we're talking 15 vs 3 deaths a day.

Really? 4500 hundred extra death a year is not insignifcant.

90000 people die in Sweden every year. Shutting down the economy for a 5% increase is not reasonable.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#512

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

Demographics explains most of differences. Ghettoes, density, and culture seems to explain the rest.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current death rate, 10-15 people a day, is insignificant compared to other causes of death. It is not reasonable to talk about percentage differences when we're talking 15 vs 3 deaths a day.

I like how you call 10 - 15 people dying insignificant without considering how significant those deaths are to their loved ones.

Every death is tragic, but that doesn't mean we should shut down everything to prevent it.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#514

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

Demographics of the population, when countermeasures were rolled out, how severe those were, reporting errors, reporting standards (and changes to those standards as the pandemic progressed), how wealthy / healthy the country is, how much IC capacity they had relative to the size of the population, whether they had a pandemic plan already in place, previous experience with pandemics, initial number of infections prior to planned approach, temperature, humidity, culture of handshakes, prior mask wearing, genetics and so on. This is going to be a very complex problem to get a grip on in such a way that the model does not end up to fit the available data (in other words: that it would not have much in terms of predictive ability).

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#515
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their…

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

Here is an analysis of how many people die due to confinement vs COVID.

https://theconversation.com/is-the-covid-19-pandemic-cure-re...

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. The reality is that everyone is prepared to allow others to die for their own convenience. I intentionally phrased that harshly, but it is indisputably true. In the US, 70,000 people died from the infl…

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

> All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard.

It absolutely isn't; it is complete nonsense.

Firstly, it directly conflicts with right to die; it asserts that if we can intervene in any suicide, then we should. How can stepping on the right to die be elevated to a gold standard?

Some people take risks, and those risks are fatal. Deaths in dangerous sports and other activities are easily preventable: just forcibly take away the right to engage in them. Closing off Mt. Everest to climbers will certainly prevent deaths. By your gold standard, that must be what should be done.

Preventing some deaths may even require lives to to be imperiled; someone has to be asked to risk their own life to save others.

No, no, no; live and let die is the gold standard.

People should be sometimes left to the consequences of their actions and circumstances and that includes dying. Obviously not always, and not as a rule, but sometimes. Often enough that "all preventable deaths should be prevented" is utterly preposterous.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pand…

Young people aren't just losing a few months of festivals. A generation of kids are losing a year (possibly more!) of schooling. Young adults are graduating into career-crippling unemployment which may haunt their lives for decades. People are getting laid off, burning through their meager life savings, losing businesses that they've worked themselves half to death to establish. Suicide rates are up. We're just begin…

It's not as simple a choice as you paint. Economic consequences can be fixed by civilised people; death cannot be fixed by anyone.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#518
post #330
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all been reactionary. Individual states and even cities are opening up when people clamor for summertime fun, and then frantically closing back down when the inevitable spike hits a couple weeks later. There is no attempt at cohesion or long-term planning. There is no leadership. They're all just winging it.

And still the number of deaths per day has fallen by 90% and still dropping. It’s doing what viruses do, quickly burn through the elderly and infirmed and then taper off.

Luckily most societies do not share your fatalist views.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#519

Any coherent explanation of this pandemic is going to need to explain why some countries that didn't do very much (e.g. Japan) ended up with far fewer deaths per capita than countries that locked down (e.g. EU countries and the United States). Sweden is somewhere in the middle -- they are being criticized, yet other countries in Europe which locked down have ended up with a higher per capita death rate. Why is it tha…

> Why is it that Cambodia and other nations in southeast Asia have negligible deaths despite doing very little to combat the virus, while countries in the EU which locked down have way more deaths per capita?

One possible explanation for this is the kind of strain carried by the index case(s).

There are dormant strains and there are virulent strains of the virus, so the kind each country gets determines the kind of symptoms and this in turn shapes the initial reaction of their health care system.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an argument you have to accept on some level, unless you propose to make more radical changes to society. How many thousands of people could we have saved from car accidents in 2019 by banning nonessential driving?

> unless you propose to make more radical changes to society. How many thousands of people could we have saved from car accidents in 2019 by banning nonessential driving? I'm pretty sure that mandating driver's license to be able to drive, and passing laws and regulations to enforce the use and adoption of safety systems such as seat belts, air bags, and helmets, not to mention criminalizing wreck less driving, is a…

No, in Scotland for weeks I couldnt visit friends, and still cant drive more than 5 miles for social reasons.

We could make those things permenant, it would really reduce road traffic deaths if noone could socially drive more than 5 miles, or drive to visit friends.

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