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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#501

Post by kolinko »

tux1968 wrote: post #259
latchkey wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vietnam is zero deaths and At first, I thought it was the govt covering something up, but after so many months, along with closely monitoring things, I trust their numbers. It is literally a source of national pride for them to have done so well, it would be very hard for them to hide things. Quarantine, masks, isolation, cleaning, testing, contact tracing. ALL WORKED.

What if next year a more virulent strand of Covid comes along that kills almost everyone in the world who didn't get exposed to Covid-19. Will you still consider their measures as ALL WORKING? We have no idea how the future is going to unfold. Everyone is faking it while demanding that everyone do as they say.

Then will grab the original Covid-19 and get everyone sick with it before the deadly muted Covid-21 arrives.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#502

Post by kolinko »

refurb wrote: post #448
ptx wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan has 7 COVID-19 deaths[1]. It seems far-fetched to suppose that they would be somehow covering up the 12000 additional deaths that would be required to reach Sweden's per-capita numbers. South Korea would have had to neglect to report 99% of COVID-19 deaths. [1] https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En

I would be careful comparing Covid deaths across countries. A good example is the child mortality statistics - the US counts babies born alive, but then die, but other countries just count them as stillbirths if the death happens with X period of time. Not saying Taiwan is hiding tens of thousands of deaths, but you have to assume some wiggle room in the numbers.

That’s why we can look at excess deaths.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#503

Post by kolinko »

ljf wrote: post #465
bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

I agree measuring excess deaths is wise, as it also measures those 'killed by the lock down' who couldn't get chemo etc. I am very pro lockdown, but that means we need the clear numbers all the more. Sweden is currently seeing 20 to 25% more deaths in year that they would in a standard year. Though their covid deaths have slowed so that will likely be around 10 percent by the end of the year if they don't see further…

Contries that early lockdowns had statistically insignificant excess deaths. So all those caused by lockdowns are insignificant compared to covid.

Also, lockdown saved people’s lives in other way - less accidents etc.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#504

Post by pfortuny »

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

Thank you!

There is some (epidemiologist) Spanish guy (I am writing from Spain) telling the Swedes that they were “overconfident”.

I look at the nunbers and think: this guy is at the very least dishonest.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#505

Post by achenatx »

leto_ii wrote: post #166
jlmorton wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. The reality is that everyone is prepared to allow others to die for their own convenience. I intentionally phrased that harshly, but it is indisputably true. In the US, 70,000 people died from the infl…

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

every single person weighs economic benefit against risk to life constantly, in civilized society.

We abort 600K fetuses in the US every year. By our behavior, life is cheap.

You are just making up some arbitrary standard of "civilized society" that doesnt exist and is meaningless.

Economists have determined that people value their lives at about 100K. The govt through policy values a human life between 8 and 10 million

Right now you could spend $100 to save a life of a child in africa, yet instead you spend that money on frivolous luxuries.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#506

Post by Shalle135 »

GuB-42 wrote: post #287
bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

There is excess mortality in Sweden https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ It is not the highest in Europe but it is very noticeable. In contrast, the surrounding countries of Finland, Norway and Denmark show almost nothing. As for which figures to take, we don't know, they are all wrong. Each country has a different way of counting depending on what they think is important. For example hospital deaths are very con…

The main problem in Sweden hasn't been the rejection of a lockdown, it's not protecting the elderly care well enough. But this is what happens when there are barely any educated people within it. Compared to Norway for example that have a mandatory 3 year nursing education to be working within the elderly care. Heck the absolute majority of the elderly didn't even get any treatment once the infection was a fact.

And these country's are much in a lockdown still. Norway for example - you're not allowed to travel far north from Oslo. In comparison to many other countries, Sweden's tactic could go on for years while many others would and already have started to give up on theirs.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#507

Post by simonh »

londons_explore wrote: post #99
leto_ii wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their…

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

Studies like this show that this is a false choice, there is no real option to 'choose the economy' for example. As we saw from studies of the Spanish Flu, cities with late and light lockdowns actually suffered more economically than cities that locked down earlier and tighter because the effects of an un checked (or less well managed) outbreak that lasted longer were so devastating. More people sick and dying is a huge drag on activity, including all the people that have to look after them, and people self-isolate anyway out of fear. Pandemics like this are a juggernaut, there's no real option to ignore and carry on.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#508

Post by ljf »

kolinko wrote: post #503
ljf wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree measuring excess deaths is wise, as it also measures those 'killed by the lock down' who couldn't get chemo etc. I am very pro lockdown, but that means we need the clear numbers all the more. Sweden is currently seeing 20 to 25% more deaths in year that they would in a standard year. Though their covid deaths have slowed so that will likely be around 10 percent by the end of the year if they don't see further…

Contries that early lockdowns had statistically insignificant excess deaths. So all those caused by lockdowns are insignificant compared to covid. Also, lockdown saved people’s lives in other way - less accidents etc.

I agree, but realistically we need to use the blunt number of excess deaths, as each country is handling the tracking of covid deaths so differently. And it also helps show if the lockdown caused issues - by comparing against other causes of desth where countries have been tracking covid deaths in a meaningful and repeated way.

As I say, I believe lockdown, esp in the way that NZ/Australia/Vietnam/South Korea did - is the way forward - the more proof we have for that, the better.

I feel UK started too late, didn't put tracking in place, and gave very confused messaging. As an island nation, we should have had a head start in protecting our people but it feels like the economy was put first.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#509

Post by jlmorton »

takeda wrote: post #456
jlmorton wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. The reality is that everyone is prepared to allow others to die for their own convenience. I intentionally phrased that harshly, but it is indisputably true. In the US, 70,000 people died from the infl…

Not sure where you get 70,000. On average it's 16,000 - 40,000 per year, there was a really bad flu on 2017-2018, which killed about 61,000 people, but on 2018-2019 it killed 34,000[1]. Anyway, your point stands, but there are people who think covid deaths are no higher than a bad flu, and your numbers seem to mislead in that direction. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

It appears they revised the estimate: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

> Can you explain why the estimates on this page are different from previously published and reported estimates for 2017-2018? (For example, total flu-related deaths during 2017-2018 was previously estimated to be 79,000, but the current estimate is 61,000)?

> The estimates on this page have been updated from an earlier report published in December 2018 based on more recently available information. There is a trade-off between timeliness and accuracy of the burden estimates. To provide timely burden estimates to the public, clinicians, and public health decision-makers, we use preliminary data that may lead to over- or under-estimates of the true burden. However, each season’s estimates will be finalized when data on testing practices and deaths for that season are available.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#510

Post by kolinko »

malandrew wrote: post #348
bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

I'm curious what we'll see years down the line. If there are excess deaths now and this disease disproportionately impacts the elderly, the assumption likely is that it's mostly picking people off early and that 1+ years from now we should observe a deaths deficit relative to the baseline years of 2018-2019. From there we should be able to start calculating the cumulative years of life lost.

So far the countries that got infections under control returned to baseline excess mortality.
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