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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#461

Post by notatoad »

nabla9 wrote: post #430
bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

Extra deaths don't have to come from underreported covid deaths. For example suicides and untreated medical conditions during social distancing and lockdowns can increase the number of deaths.

there are additional deaths that can be attributed to the lockdown, as well as some reductions in deaths that can be attributed to the lockdown. but neither are anything close to on the same scale as people actually dying of covid.

there's obviously some margin of error, but it's pretty safe to treat the unattributed excess deaths as being caused by covid-19

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#462

Post by mettamage »

DanBC wrote: post #34
mettamage wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not American, I'm Dutch. And there's a huge difference between WOII levels (which is what 2% deathrate in The Netherlands would be), versus an extra amount of death people comparable to the worst flu season. In The Netherlands, the worst flu seasons still have a higher death toll than corona. I hope it stays that way for everyone.

> the worst flu seasons still have a higher death toll than corona. Do you have a link to the statistics please? I think you're comparing two different methods of counting death. I think for covid-19 you're counting people who died after testing positive, or people where covid-19 is listed as the cause on the death certificate. But for flu I think you're counting excess mortality.

He was mentioning the same flu season I did [1].

You're right though, I think something different was counted. In one case it was covid-19 deaths vs excess mortality. A sister comment rectified it, fortunately. It took this source [2] that references the excess mortality of the Dutch worst flu season and covid-19.

Then you get:

> De oversterfte in week 10 tot en met 19 van de COVID-19 epidemie was 9.768

> De oversterfte tijdens de 18 weken griepepidemie werd geschat op 9.444

(I think you can gather which is which but you could use Google Translate to be 100% sure)

So COVID-19 is actually higher and in 10 weeks rather than 18 weeks. And also, now that we're comparing a bit more apples to apples (The Netherlands), then we have to take into account that an "intelligent lockdown" (whatever that means) has taken place.

We had less death per 1 million than the Swedish as we were on 6132 at the time of this comment with covid related deaths.

So in conclusion, I made a few subtle errors that ultimately really add up. I wish I could still edit my top comment, I am happy I could already admit one error I made (that Sweden wasn't 100% roaming free), but using different units of measurement (covid related deaths vs excess mortality was another one).

[1] In Dutch, unfortunately: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

[2] https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#463

Post by null_object »

rimliu wrote: post #449
takeda wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

or that many people who survive (including younger ones) will be disabled and unable to work

How do you get many younger ones disabled, when younger ones are barely getting ill? It is a desease that affects the older ones much more.

Two young people I know here in Stockholm have had complications: my team lead (who is in his mid-thirties) had an embolism in his lung after covid. He now has to inject blood-thinning medication twice a day. We’ll see how this works out for him.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#464

Post by Leherenn »

nickthemagicman wrote: post #443
anders_p wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They haven't seen any benefit to their economy compared to other nordic countries at all. Partly because they are export dependant and nobody's buying & partly because enough swedes are staying home (not going to pubs etc.) for the economy to tank but not enough to avoid 10 times as many deaths as their neighbours. So, yes, time will tell. But for now they are getting the worst of both: Many dead and no economic bene…

Sweden hasnt any had any hospitals overwhelmed. they're just front loading the deaths that every single other country is going to have but is just delaying. Do you think Corona is going anywhere?

A vaccine in the next couple years is not unthinkable I'd say.

If you have a look at the current infection rate in a lot of European (and others) countries, even reaching 50% of the population infected would take decades.

So yes, I believe that delaying is not the only possibility.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#465

Post by ljf »

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

I agree measuring excess deaths is wise, as it also measures those 'killed by the lock down' who couldn't get chemo etc. I am very pro lockdown, but that means we need the clear numbers all the more.

Sweden is currently seeing 20 to 25% more deaths in year that they would in a standard year. Though their covid deaths have slowed so that will likely be around 10 percent by the end of the year if they don't see further waves.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#466

Post by eCa »

refurb wrote: post #454
cyrksoft wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you attribute every excess death to covid alone, at least directly? There are many countries where family violence has increased, alcohol consumption, suicide, etc. I don’t think every excessive death can be attributed to covid.

Not only that, but if you have a patient in a hospice with stage 4 lung cancer who dies and tests positive for Covid, does that go in the "Covid death" bucket? Honest question. I don't know the answer. I assume it's left up the physician's judgement?

In Sweden, yes.

If you have tested positive within 30 days before dying, that is counted as a COVID-19 death.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#467

Post by lbeltrame »

jeffbee wrote: post #322
bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

Comparing disease outcomes at all is futile because they are incredibly sensitive to initial conditions. One sick person travelling in January made all the difference.

Phylogenetic analysis showed that in most countries there were multiple seeding events before the infections were discovered. In short, it wasn't just one sick person.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#468

Post by pengaru »

kalleboo wrote: post #413
pengaru wrote: post #83

It seems obviously wasteful to keep such businesses open where most the paying customers won't be showing up during a pandemic anyways. Why even pay to have the lights on? You need to mothball the operation ASAP and lobby for government assistance for the duration. I was just poking at rough figures last night out of curiosity regarding when the other end of this arrives in terms of 60% herd immunity for the US. Just…

> It seems obviously wasteful to keep such businesses open where most the paying customers won't be showing up during a pandemic anyways In Sweden people still seem happy to go out to bars and restaurants, even in the middle of a pandemic. It's non-stop work for the government to shut down venues that are crowded beyond the allowed covid19 congestion regulation. This whole "even if restaurants and bars were open, nob…

Your comment is in direct contradiction with TFA, did you read it?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#469

Post by anderstornqvist »

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

I could also indicate that the excess deaths is due to the lockdown or from how a country are handling the Covid-19 pandemic, i.e. not handling other cases in time.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#470

Post by patelh »

nickthemagicman wrote: post #444
leto_ii wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

Coronavirus deaths aren't preventable. Youre are going to have the same number of deaths sooner or later as long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Corona isn't going anywhere.

They are preventable, vaccine on the horizon.
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