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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#391

Post by roca »

simonh wrote: post #119
claudeganon wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan. 7 people have died. No major economic impact. Now exporting masks to other countries. No brushing aside deaths of the elderly and disabled as if those people’s lives were nothing. Their’s was demonstrably the best strategy and everyone else is just making excuses.

Taiwan and Germany have the advantage that they have strong domestic medical testing industries. This allowed Germany to do 5x to 10x as many tests as France, Italy and Spain. In turn this enabled them to accurately map the spread of the disease and use targeted tactical lockdowns to eliminate outbreaks at the local level. Korea did the same. Without the same testing capacity, this strategy simply wasn’t available in…

Now explain New Zealand.

Lots of very different countries have beaten the virus in different ways. Apologists for the failed US response have to resort to special pleading: "it's not fair to compare the USA to South Korea ... or Taiwan ... or Germany ... or Australia ... or New Zealand ... or Japan ... or Vietnam ... or China ..." American exceptionalism at its least fine.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#392

Post by bhupy »

roca wrote: post #388
bhupy wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been no more reactionary than most other nations in the world. There is absolutely long-term planning by the majority of states. To the extent that states are frantically changing their strategies, it's because we're learning more about the virus and how it spreads, and shifting our strategies. Take New York, for example. Its high death rate can be largely attributed to Governor Cuomo's disastrous decision to fo…

US states do not have a clearly articulated strategy. A clear strategy would be something like "apply mitigations and lockdowns as lightly as possible while keeping R below 1 so the number of active cases continually declines, until we have a vaccine or we have suppressed community transmission". AFAIK no governor has said anything that clear. A lot of state actions seem to have been driven by a strategy like that, b…

> but a lot seem more like “people got tired of lockdowns and we kinda hope things might not get bad if we reopen, so we’re reopening”

This isn’t unique to the US, the entire world is playing a giant game of economic chicken with COVID, and the entire world is beginning to re-open, even without a vaccine or any sort of “plan”.

Just like the EU, the US is a mixed bag. You have States like Germany with exemplary planning and strategic decision making, but you also have Italy’s and Spain’s. You have States like Washington, California, and Utah with exemplary planning, but you also have New York’s and Louisiana’s.

As with any collection of generally autonomous governments (especially where the power to enforce lockdowns and issue curfews is vested), strategies can vary, outcomes can vary.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#393

Post by cma »

londons_explore wrote: post #99
leto_ii wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their…

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

In New Zealand, who took the opposite strategy of Sweden, they can open now and aren't losing a year.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#394

Post by latchkey »

tux1968 wrote: post #267
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if next year aliens arrive and eat us all? There's no plausible argument from counterfactuals here. But let's pretend anyway - do you not think that even if a more virulent strain of Covid did arrive, country with proven measures in place has a better chance of dealing with the problem than a country whose current response is a chaotic shambles?

What i'm saying is there is a problem with monocultures. They are more susceptible to being wiped out in a single stroke. I'd say that following a scientific approach, we might want to consider not advocating for everyone to take the exact same course of action. Also, that we have to be careful to not judge success or failure too soon, that assessments can change after a bit more time has passed.

If the course of action has the effect of saving lives, what is wrong with that?

The measure of success is all past and current. If Vietnam loses control over covid, then we can definitely blame them for that. Why? Because they effectively controlled it in the first place.

If they continue their direction, they will be one of the only countries on the planet, not totally infected. Pretty amazing really. If they start experimenting and doing things differently, at least they've setup the protocols for managing things correctly.

Here in the US, we go through these bullshit 'phases' where we go from phase 2 to phase 3 and then back to phase 2. Well, anyone with half a brain could have figured out that wasn't going to work. At least Vietnam is taking this seriously.

They shut their borders entirely... we (the US), can't even do that.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#395

Post by bhupy »

mixmastamyk wrote: post #389
bhupy wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn’t need to do that at all, any more than the EU government needs to ensure there’s a consistent strategy among its member states that everyone is executing. Different strategies apply for different states, because they have different elderly populations, different density characteristics, and different health system capacities. Further, we still don’t know which approaches are the best, since we’re still lear…

Would you happen to have a good link re: your last paragraph? Would like to learn more.

Sure: https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursin...

> In Florida, all nursing home workers were required to be screened for COVID-19 symptoms before entering a facility. On March 15, before most states had locked down, DeSantis signed an executive order that banned nursing home visitations from friends and family, and also banned hospitals from discharging SARS-CoV-2-infected patients into long-term care facilities.

> Instead, states like New York, New Jersey, and Michigan actually ordered nursing homes to accept patients with active COVID-19 infections who were being discharged from hospitals.

> The most charitable interpretation of these orders is that they were designed to ensure that states would not overcrowd their ICUs. But well after hospitalizations peaked, governors like New York’s Andrew Cuomo were doubling down on their mandates.

> As recently as April 23, Cuomo declared that nursing homes “don’t have a right to object” to accepting elderly patients with active COVID infections. “That is the rule and that is the regulation and they have to comply with that.” Only on May 10—after the deaths of nearly 3,000 New York residents of nursing homes and assisted living facilities—did Cuomo stand down and partially rescind his order.

Cuomo’s doubling down: https://nypost.com/2020/04/23/nursing-homes-cant-reject-coro...

Thankfully he has since walked back all of this, and New York is in much better shape.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#396

Post by hjnilsson »

claudeganon wrote: post #126
simonh wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan and Germany have the advantage that they have strong domestic medical testing industries. This allowed Germany to do 5x to 10x as many tests as France, Italy and Spain. In turn this enabled them to accurately map the spread of the disease and use targeted tactical lockdowns to eliminate outbreaks at the local level. Korea did the same. Without the same testing capacity, this strategy simply wasn’t available in…

Ok, now do Vietnam. Also, the choice to offshore medical supply infrastructure was a deliberate one by many wealthy countries. That this was foolish and short-sighted is not any more of an excuse than anything else with their poor responses.

Vietnam has a population 10 years younger than Taiwan / Sweden / Germany. This is a very significant factor when we are talking about Covid, and explains the very low mortality rate in Vietnam.

But yes: Vietnam still did great, most likely thanks to very early intervention (as early as January).

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#397

Post by roca »

bhupy wrote: post #392
roca wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US states do not have a clearly articulated strategy. A clear strategy would be something like "apply mitigations and lockdowns as lightly as possible while keeping R below 1 so the number of active cases continually declines, until we have a vaccine or we have suppressed community transmission". AFAIK no governor has said anything that clear. A lot of state actions seem to have been driven by a strategy like that, b…

> but a lot seem more like “people got tired of lockdowns and we kinda hope things might not get bad if we reopen, so we’re reopening” This isn’t unique to the US, the entire world is playing a giant game of economic chicken with COVID, and the entire world is beginning to re-open, even without a vaccine or any sort of “plan”. Just like the EU, the US is a mixed bag. You have States like Germany with exemplary planni…

Sure, there are many other countries that likewise lack a clear strategy. But it's not good to grade on a curve here. Americans should be demanding a clear strategy, both from the states and from the federal government; they mostly aren't, and I don't know why.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#398

Post by latchkey »

glofish wrote: post #205
latchkey wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't understand how people assume it is healthy to breathe through a mucus-laden cotton sheet filled with microorganisms captured from the air, ... Tell that to the millions of people who go skiing every year, or the people who work in hospitals all day long, every day. I wash my mask every time I use it and I rotate through several of them. Nobody is asking you to wear a dirty mask.

none of that mask wearing is done at the scale and in the manner forced upon the population nurses change their masks all the time, nobody skis every day for eight hours, (FWIW the vast majority of people skiing don't wear masks over their mouths) > I wash my mask every time I use it and I rotate through several of them Like every hour? If not good luck with that, it is a pit of infection, a wet and warm substrate fo…

> nurses change their masks all the time,

Do they? Are you a nurse?

> nobody skis every day for eight hours, (FWIW the vast majority of people skiing don't wear masks over their mouths)

Show me the statistics on that.

> Like every hour? If not good luck with that, it is a pit of infection, a wet and warm substrate for bacteria and fungi.

This is the most inane argument ever. You're basically saying those same exact bacteria and fungi magically don't go into our airways without a mask?

Masks magically breed this within a day? Also... who says they are bad? Hate to break it to you, we are FULL of bacteria.

Seriously, take a step back and think hard about your logic. Something in your brain isn't firing correctly.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#399

Post by cyrksoft »

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

How can you attribute every excess death to covid alone, at least directly? There are many countries where family violence has increased, alcohol consumption, suicide, etc. I don’t think every excessive death can be attributed to covid.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#400

Post by redisman »

345218435 wrote: post #295
leto_ii wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their…

the church of covid is a cult. get out. get perspective and truth. https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1280383315871236096?s=2...

I was curious. Not very convincing data. Mortality has gone down in Sweden in the long term so covid is not actually a big deal? I don’t see the connection
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