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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#381

Post by arcticbull »

freyr wrote: post #380
arcticbull wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cannot know that until after the pandemic is over. The Swedes are betting that nobody in the world will be spared from COVID and therefore the delta in deaths is temporary. They are front-loading it while attempting to keep the economic impacts as low as possible. They anticipate the rest of the world will be contending with shutdowns, re-openings, shutdowns, re-openings, and when all is said and done, the death…

> The Swedes are betting that nobody in the world will be spared from COVID It's also a bet that medical treatments won't improve and a vaccine won't be developed.

Developed in time, yes. So far, at least using the US as a benchmark, it's not.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#382

Post by zhobbs »

nodamage wrote: post #202
oxymoran wrote: post #53

I find this article a little disingenuous and here is why: Sweden-5420 deaths out of a population of 10 million while no lock down. Michigan-6005 deaths out of a population of 10 million and we have been locked down since mid March. To be clear, I was in favor of the lockdown at first and I still am in favor of keeping things like bars and casinos closed but it’s become clear that the virus doesn’t have much affect o…

While Sweden did not have a mandatory lockdown, it wasn't like they stood by and did nothing either. They actually implemented many measures to reduce the spread of the virus: - Closed high schools and universities. - Banned gatherings of over 50 people. - Banned visits to nursing homes. - Reduced restaurant capacity and required social distancing in restaurants. - Recommended social distancing, working from home, an…

Thank you! I'm tired of the "Sweden ignored coronavirus" meme that simply isn't true.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#383

Post by roca »

bhupy wrote: post #217
_bxg1 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all been reactionary. Individual states and even cities are opening up when people clamor for summertime fun, and then frantically closing back down when the inevitable spike hits a couple weeks later. There is no attempt at cohesion or long-term planning. There is no leadership. They're all just winging it.

It's been no more reactionary than most other nations in the world. There is absolutely long-term planning by the majority of states. To the extent that states are frantically changing their strategies, it's because we're learning more about the virus and how it spreads, and shifting our strategies. Take New York, for example. Its high death rate can be largely attributed to Governor Cuomo's disastrous decision to fo…

Australia and New Zealand aren't good comparisons for testing rates because they have negligible community transmission. When no-one's infected with COVID-19, people aren't going to seek tests as much, and a higher testing rate is not necessary.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#384

Post by mixmastamyk »

triceratops wrote: post #302
mixmastamyk wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coordination of lockdowns makes no sense past a county or small state. Do you believe NYC and rural Nebraska should be coordinating schedules when they have vastly different situations over time?

Way to argue against a strawman - please explain where "coordinate" means "everyone all at once with no regard for local conditions". Neighboring states and counties should be coordinating schedules, travel restrictions, and stay-at-home requirements. Here in the Bay Area alone San Mateo, Santa Clara and San Francisco counties had conflicting requirements for how far away from home you could be and for what reasons.

Most places are already doing that, and have been for a while. See Newsom's orders/recommendations. They could agree if they wanted, apparently they don't for reasons we may not know.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#385

Post by kalleboo »

marcusverus wrote: post #9
kanox wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm starting to think it was the right decision Sweden is #6 by deaths/population according to this page: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ This would indicate that the swedish response is among the worst. Several countries with comparable health systems have a death rate which is many times lower, for example Germany. This saved many thousands of lives. What am I missing?

If the pandemic is expected to continue for many months, isn't it a bit premature to talk about current death rates as a metric for success? Given Sweden's 'herd immunity' plan, higher death rates at the beginning would seem to be a given. They didn't flatten their curve. But as they approach something like herd immunity, the number of possible carriers should plummet permanently (assuming immunity is a thing with CO…

> They didn't flatten their curve

They did flatten the curve[0], they kept their cases within hospital capacity (by banning gatherings over 50, reducing restaurant capacity, having people work from home, etc)

What they never did was crush the curve, which is the strategy most other countries switched to once they realized it was feasible

[0] https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/22/science/11SCI-VIR...

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#386

Post by bhupy »

roca wrote: post #383
bhupy wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been no more reactionary than most other nations in the world. There is absolutely long-term planning by the majority of states. To the extent that states are frantically changing their strategies, it's because we're learning more about the virus and how it spreads, and shifting our strategies. Take New York, for example. Its high death rate can be largely attributed to Governor Cuomo's disastrous decision to fo…

Australia and New Zealand aren't good comparisons for testing rates because they have negligible community transmission. When no-one's infected with COVID-19, people aren't going to seek tests as much, and a higher testing rate is not necessary.

Sure, I pulled a generous handful, so take your pick.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#387

Post by chasd00 »

Afforess wrote: post #325
b112 wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will you force them with a gun? To forgo all friends, family, comforts of home, and be literally trapped at work for months? Money doesn't just buy people. You'd essentially be drafting them.

Yes, then draft them. I'm in favour of martial law for this crisis.

not a good idea, at least not in the USA. there's lines out the door every weekend at every gun shop I know of.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#388

Post by roca »

bhupy wrote: post #217
_bxg1 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all been reactionary. Individual states and even cities are opening up when people clamor for summertime fun, and then frantically closing back down when the inevitable spike hits a couple weeks later. There is no attempt at cohesion or long-term planning. There is no leadership. They're all just winging it.

It's been no more reactionary than most other nations in the world. There is absolutely long-term planning by the majority of states. To the extent that states are frantically changing their strategies, it's because we're learning more about the virus and how it spreads, and shifting our strategies. Take New York, for example. Its high death rate can be largely attributed to Governor Cuomo's disastrous decision to fo…

US states do not have a clearly articulated strategy. A clear strategy would be something like "apply mitigations and lockdowns as lightly as possible while keeping R below 1 so the number of active cases continually declines, until we have a vaccine or we have suppressed community transmission". AFAIK no governor has said anything that clear.

A lot of state actions seem to have been driven by a strategy like that, but a lot seem more like "people got tired of lockdowns and we kinda hope things might not get bad if we reopen, so we're reopening".

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#389

Post by mixmastamyk »

bhupy wrote: post #378
triceratops wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The federal government doesn't need to order anyone to do anything. Fighting a pandemic is in everyone's best interests. It just needs to ensure there's a consistent strategy that everyone is executing.

It doesn’t need to do that at all, any more than the EU government needs to ensure there’s a consistent strategy among its member states that everyone is executing. Different strategies apply for different states, because they have different elderly populations, different density characteristics, and different health system capacities. Further, we still don’t know which approaches are the best, since we’re still lear…

Would you happen to have a good link re: your last paragraph? Would like to learn more.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#390

Post by latchkey »

tux1968 wrote: post #259
latchkey wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vietnam is zero deaths and At first, I thought it was the govt covering something up, but after so many months, along with closely monitoring things, I trust their numbers. It is literally a source of national pride for them to have done so well, it would be very hard for them to hide things. Quarantine, masks, isolation, cleaning, testing, contact tracing. ALL WORKED.

What if next year a more virulent strand of Covid comes along that kills almost everyone in the world who didn't get exposed to Covid-19. Will you still consider their measures as ALL WORKING? We have no idea how the future is going to unfold. Everyone is faking it while demanding that everyone do as they say.

I cannot predict the future, I can only consider the past and think about the present, with an eye to the future.

Faking what? Demanding what?

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