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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#281

Post by throwaway0a5e »

sixo wrote: post #151
bosie wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering that the health care systems were partially shut down too, how do you determine that covid was the culprit rather a change in the health care system for those counted as excess deaths?

Those are covid deaths

No. Those are "reaction to COVID" deaths or just normal deaths.

If you order an island evacuated because of an impending natural disaster and some people die in the evacuation they died from the evacuation, not the disaster. Just because your actions are lowering the overall body count doesn't mean the deaths are the fault of whatever disaster the people died avoiding.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#282

Post by rodolphoarruda »

leto_ii wrote: post #264
grawprog wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>All preventable deaths should be prevented What's a preventable death? Everybody dies eventually, there's no such thing as a preventable death. There's delaying death, but everyone dies. Period.

I feel that in this thread people are quite stubborn about interpreting things literally, or misinterpreting them all together. I will give it my best shot at clarifying: Preventable refers to what a given society can be expected to manage given its limited resources and given other moral constraints, such as not impinging on people's freedoms unnecessarily. A number of the terms I have used have vague meanings that…

> I feel that in this thread people are quite stubborn about interpreting things literally, or misinterpreting them all together.

That's my impression about the Internet as a whole these days...

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#283

Post by sjg007 »

londons_explore wrote: post #99
leto_ii wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their…

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

Well... not if it was travel related.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#284

Post by kingkawn »

londons_explore wrote: post #99
leto_ii wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their…

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

Where did the virus come from? How did it arise? Is it deadlier than we realize? Will it remain what we see now? Does it target specific populations? Do children have unexpected long terms side effects of having it? Will it wipe out the entirety of the elderly if we allow it to circulate? Will people get reinfected by it after a short time or long time? How rapidly will it mutate to become deadlier? How rapidly less so? How many will die in the meantime?

There too much unknown to dismiss what this disease can do.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#285

Post by discordance »

bantunes wrote: post #227
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an argument you have to accept on some level, unless you propose to make more radical changes to society. How many thousands of people could we have saved from car accidents in 2019 by banning nonessential driving?

The difference being you can't contract bad driving.

You contract a probability of being affected by someone’s bad driving every time you choose to go on the road

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#286

Post by cortic »

Deaths per 1M population are significantly higher in Italy(577), Spain(607) and the UK(654) than they are in Sweden(539). And Sweden have been a lot more honest in counting than most countries.

There seems to be a drive to discredit the inalienable human rights approach, in this case by implying it was a financial decision; but i have to say i am impressed by the way they have handled this situation, the only response on earth that involved treating their citizens like adults.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#287

Post by GuB-42 »

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

There is excess mortality in Sweden https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

It is not the highest in Europe but it is very noticeable. In contrast, the surrounding countries of Finland, Norway and Denmark show almost nothing.

As for which figures to take, we don't know, they are all wrong. Each country has a different way of counting depending on what they think is important.

For example hospital deaths are very consistent. Hospitals generally have good reporting, testing, etc... good to see daily evolution, but it is an underestimate. Recorded deaths from nursing homes and at home are less reliable. Sometimes, there is no testing, so we are not 100% sure it is COVID, there may also be delays. The picture is now more complete but you lose a bit of consistency. Excess mortality reporting can also have long delays, and it doesn't care about COVID at all, so things like behavior change under lockdown can have an effect, the advantage is that it is the least likely indicator to miss anything.

And if you look at all the numbers, we can split Europe into the bad (Italy, UK, France, Spain, ...) and the good (Norway, Finland, Denmark, ...). And by all metrics, Sweden is in the "bad" camp.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#288

Post by magnio »

glofish wrote: post #253
gmadsen wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

thats not the deal though. You would be trading 6 months of isolation for the possibility of dying 50 years sooner

wait if you put it that way that is not the deal either, six months of isolation for a 1/100,000 chance of dying 50 years sooner, turns out I take that chance of dying each time I climb a mountain, and I get back less value than what is on offer in your trade

Not sure how you get that number, but if you didn't isolate, wouldn't your chance of dying higher?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#289

Post by Holmes »

grawprog wrote: post #241
leto_ii wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

>All preventable deaths should be prevented What's a preventable death? Everybody dies eventually, there's no such thing as a preventable death. There's delaying death, but everyone dies. Period.

But not every man truly lives.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#290

Post by glofish »

magnio wrote: post #288
glofish wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wait if you put it that way that is not the deal either, six months of isolation for a 1/100,000 chance of dying 50 years sooner, turns out I take that chance of dying each time I climb a mountain, and I get back less value than what is on offer in your trade

Not sure how you get that number, but if you didn't isolate, wouldn't your chance of dying higher?

this is a risk/benefit analysis, we are talking about tradeoffs

would I trade getting out of six months of quarantine if the price was the chance of 1/100,000 of dying. Of course I would.

I contrasted that to the fact that I frequently take on much higher risks of dying (mountaineering) for a lot less payoff (it is fun).

(the 1/100,000 is an estimate based on existing data for my age group)

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