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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#251

Post by risaacs99 »

glofish wrote: post #181
ralph84 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At age 65 (or any age) I'd evaluate my risk and modify my own activities. I wouldn't even dream of asking others to give up their work or school or favorite activities because of my own frailty.

this is exactly how see it as well. My mother is 77 at risk from COVID - does she expect the neighbors kid not go to school to keep her "safe"? Or that a 20 year old not have fun at the beach from now on so that she is "safe"? Of course not, not a least bit, and she told me that herself. I admire her for it. I agree as well. Everyone is responsible for themselves.

Not sending kids to school is about keeping the teachers, administrators, and their dependents and contacts safe. It's about grandparents who care for the children and would be at risk. I don't think it's about your mom.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#252

Post by pxpm »

It's my first comment on HN. I am not a native english speaking person so I am sorry for some wrong wording in my answer.

I am from Portugal. In first 2 months we were considered an example on how to deal with an pandemic.

Today, our best business partners, I list UK in this scenario, does not give Portugal a safe destiny badge.

People tend to overcome rules. UK people are flying to Spain an then get a bus to Portugal.

Today's news was about 2000 students from Netherlands partying in Portugal, Algarve.

I am a young and healthy person AFAIK, but my mother is not. Neither my father in law or some of my closest friends.

Any death caused by irresponsible behaviour should be treated as an law infringement.

I really don't care if I get Corona. Pretty much I do, or in this case, I don't do, is thinking about people that does not have the chance of saying: fuck it.

It's the world we have, but I am sure it's not the world I wanted.

Bare with me: any death that could be avoided they should be avoided. And we could avoid alot of deaths if we think about others, an not that much about ourselves.

60 years ago you didn't have internet, lot's didn't even have light or bathroom in house.

Divorces are up with confinement. Are those people really meant to be together?

Don't look to much to your belly, and look around. Learn how to respect others without expecting the retribution.

You will feel great when you give up something you think it's aquired by right to something you think it's just right.

Best

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#253

Post by glofish »

gmadsen wrote: post #226
glofish wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

uh no, I would most certainly trade the past six months for a normal life even if it meant that I would die six months sooner. wouldn't you?

thats not the deal though. You would be trading 6 months of isolation for the possibility of dying 50 years sooner

wait if you put it that way that is not the deal either,

six months of isolation for a 1/100,000 chance of dying 50 years sooner,

turns out I take that chance of dying each time I climb a mountain, and I get back less value than what is on offer in your trade

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#254

Post by tux1968 »

bantunes wrote: post #227
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an argument you have to accept on some level, unless you propose to make more radical changes to society. How many thousands of people could we have saved from car accidents in 2019 by banning nonessential driving?

The difference being you can't contract bad driving.

Sure you can. You can be killed by a bad driver very easily, even if you're just sitting in a park or walking down the street.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#255

Post by leereeves »

leto_ii wrote: post #166
jlmorton wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. The reality is that everyone is prepared to allow others to die for their own convenience. I intentionally phrased that harshly, but it is indisputably true. In the US, 70,000 people died from the infl…

All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. In reality, of course, things don't work out that way. The analogy with a flu season is deeply misleading. The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons, with extraordinary measures in place all over the world. It's completely reasonable to assume that without lockdowns we would have had millions of deaths alr…

> The coronavirus has, in half a year, killed more people than the worst flu seasons

That's not true. The flu seasons in 1968, 1957, 1918, and 1889 each killed over a million people worldwide, twice as many as COVID-19 in roughly the same timespan, and that out of a lower total population, and despite lockdowns and quarantines.

(Who is downvoting this simple truth? How is anyone going to discuss this issue if we can't even talk about basic facts?)

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#256

Post by aazaa »

bhupy wrote: post #225
aazaa wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's not the same as "no strategy", because this level of decentralization is how nation-states work today. It's one thing to leave pandemic response to member countries like the EU does. Each country knows it's responsible for its own response. Money is budgeted and spent specifically for this purpose. That's not the system in the US - or hasn't been. The Federal government maintains what, until recently, was th…

> That's not the system in the US - or hasn't been. The Federal government maintains what, until recently, was the world's premier infectious disease-fighting organization - the CDC. The implication was that pandemic response occurs through this organization. In the past, this is exactly what happened. While you're right that the Federal government has the CDC, every single US States has its own infectious disease/he…

> While you're right that the Federal government has the CDC, every single US States has its own infectious disease/health agency[1].

Those appear to be general public heath agencies with names like: "Department of Health Services"; "Medicaid"; and "Department of Health and Environment". I don't see one mention of the word "infectious" to indicate specialty.

None appear to be a unit with a mandate along the lines of "Detecting and responding to new and emerging health threats"

https://www.cdc.gov/about/organization/mission.htm

or "Leading research to understand, treat, and prevent infectious, immunologic, and allergic diseases"

https://www.niaid.nih.gov

> Furthermore, the EU also has its own centralized disease agency[2]

"ECDC has approximately 300 staff and commands an annual budget of over €50 million."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Centre_for_Disease_Pr...

Compare with:

"CDC's budget for fiscal year 2018 is $11.9 billion."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centers_for_Disease_Control_an...

Similar population, very different numbers.

> By March 23, every single State declared a state of emergency, and 48/50 States closed their schools.

I was alluding to steps that might have been taken many years ago. Like, for example, establishing rapid response teams. Like, for example, giving states carte blanche to do their own testing when needed and not be forced to wait around for the CDC to do something. Certainly not reprimanded for taking the initiative.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#257

Post by aazaa »

detaro wrote: post #233
bhupy wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's not the system in the US - or hasn't been. The Federal government maintains what, until recently, was the world's premier infectious disease-fighting organization - the CDC. The implication was that pandemic response occurs through this organization. In the past, this is exactly what happened. While you're right that the Federal government has the CDC, every single US States has its own infectious disease/he…

Random anecdote about the difference: I (in Germany) can't really remember seeing anything about what ECDC said or thinks in the past months in the media, only about country-level (and lower) authorities. Whereas US-CDC seems quoted quite a lot in US media.

The budgets are not even close. See my sister comment.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#258

Post by glofish »

abiogenesis wrote: post #240
glofish wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what if you die next year (of a different cause) and the quarantine robbed you from your last year, would you make the same trade?

Statistically speaking, deaths from random causes will not increase by 1% in the next year (assuming that the death rate of COVID-19 is 1%).

the point I was making is that the value of a year in you life and what the quarantine takes from you depends on other factors.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#259

Post by tux1968 »

latchkey wrote: post #185
ptx wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan has 7 COVID-19 deaths[1]. It seems far-fetched to suppose that they would be somehow covering up the 12000 additional deaths that would be required to reach Sweden's per-capita numbers. South Korea would have had to neglect to report 99% of COVID-19 deaths. [1] https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En

Vietnam is zero deaths and At first, I thought it was the govt covering something up, but after so many months, along with closely monitoring things, I trust their numbers. It is literally a source of national pride for them to have done so well, it would be very hard for them to hide things. Quarantine, masks, isolation, cleaning, testing, contact tracing. ALL WORKED.

What if next year a more virulent strand of Covid comes along that kills almost everyone in the world who didn't get exposed to Covid-19. Will you still consider their measures as ALL WORKING? We have no idea how the future is going to unfold. Everyone is faking it while demanding that everyone do as they say.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#260

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

gridlockd wrote: post #212
VectorLock wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At a fundamental level, yes. By degree of magnitude not even in the same galaxy. If you take a 200 million mile road trip you might contribute to one death, vs. going to a party and risk contracting and spreading a pandemic that has has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.

Remember, the game plan that virologists came up with for COVID acknowledged that most people will get it eventually. The point of the lockdowns was not to eliminate spread, which is impossible, but to not overwhelm the system.

And also to provide time for treatments to appear, with the eventual prospect of a vaccine.

And also to avoid panic and shortages of essentials caused by mass avoidable deaths and work absenteeism, both of which would have been the inevitable and predictable outcome of attempting to carry on as normal.

IMO the argument is already over. In fact there shouldn't have been an argument at all. There was never a rational case for trying to avoid lockdown, or failing to test/trace, or setting up other basic mitigation measures - either on humanitarian or on economic grounds.

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