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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#221

Post by glofish »

emiliobumachar wrote: post #124
londons_explore wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

Keep in mind that years of life lost by dying sooner are actually a complete loss, while a year in quarantine is still partially lived. It varies a lot from person to person. If it was all about yourself, what do you think would be a reasonable exchange rate?

uh no,

I would most certainly trade the past six months for a normal life even if it meant that I would die six months sooner.

wouldn't you?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#222

Post by madballster »

glofish wrote: post #198
username90 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The exchange rate for the most successful lock-downs of corona is about 60 years of lock-down for 1 year of life. Edit: Note that USA is doing much worse since so many are dying there even though you lock down.

is a year in the life of an 82 year old (median age of covid death) the same as a year in the life of a 10, 20 or 30 year old? I sure think not. So the comparisons are a bit moot. trading 60 years of 30 year olds for 1 year of an 82 year old is a trade that probably no 82 year old would want.

This is what happens is democratic societies with a demographic pyramid that's upside down: lots of old and relatively few young. Politicians want to get re-elected and cater to the largest, most influential voter group (old people) and disregard younger voters agendas.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#223

Post by nradov »

emiliobumachar wrote: post #124
londons_explore wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway . Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

Keep in mind that years of life lost by dying sooner are actually a complete loss, while a year in quarantine is still partially lived. It varies a lot from person to person. If it was all about yourself, what do you think would be a reasonable exchange rate?

Economists and medical ethicists calculate that exchange rate as the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) metric. It was originally designed to provide guidance on medical interventions but the same calculation can be applied to public health measures.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#224

Post by WalterBright »

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

I've seen similar large errors in statistics on infant mortality. Different countries define it very differently, for example a different line between a miscarriage and infant mortality.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#225

Post by bhupy »

aazaa wrote: post #147
bhupy wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not the same as "no strategy", because this level of decentralization is how nation-states work today. It's also, incidentally, how the EU works. There are open borders between member states — and while some member states "closed" their borders, this has been largely unenforceable in land crossings because there are no border patrol agents between every single land crossing between EU member states. Border enf…

> That's not the same as "no strategy", because this level of decentralization is how nation-states work today. It's one thing to leave pandemic response to member countries like the EU does. Each country knows it's responsible for its own response. Money is budgeted and spent specifically for this purpose. That's not the system in the US - or hasn't been. The Federal government maintains what, until recently, was th…

> That's not the system in the US - or hasn't been. The Federal government maintains what, until recently, was the world's premier infectious disease-fighting organization - the CDC. The implication was that pandemic response occurs through this organization. In the past, this is exactly what happened.

While you're right that the Federal government has the CDC, every single US States has its own infectious disease/health agency[1]. Furthermore, the EU also has its own centralized disease agency[2]. Structurally, both the US and EU are very similar in this regard. The only key difference is that (to your point) the EU States may override the ECDC, whereas US States may not — certainly a worthwhile policy change for the US.

> So the idea that this pandemic response is up to the states doesn't hold water. Had the states known that they'd be left twisting in the wind, they could have taken steps beforehand.

But this is factually incorrect, States did take steps beforehand. By March 23, every single State declared a state of emergency, and 48/50 States closed their schools. By as early as March 9th, the States were doing the VAST majority of COVID testing[3]. As of right now, the US has administered more tests per capita than Belgium, Australia, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Norway, and Sweden (to name a handful). This is not because the US has a nationwide testing regime, rather it is because testing systems have been administered at the State level[4].

[1] https://www.ehdp.com/links/us-shas.htm

[2] https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en

[3] https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1238574921346732032/photo...

[4] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#226

Post by gmadsen »

glofish wrote: post #221
emiliobumachar wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind that years of life lost by dying sooner are actually a complete loss, while a year in quarantine is still partially lived. It varies a lot from person to person. If it was all about yourself, what do you think would be a reasonable exchange rate?

uh no, I would most certainly trade the past six months for a normal life even if it meant that I would die six months sooner. wouldn't you?

thats not the deal though. You would be trading 6 months of isolation for the possibility of dying 50 years sooner

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#227

Post by bantunes »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #142
VectorLock wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument that "its okay for more of other people to die so some people don't miss out on some fun" I find even more abhorrent.

It's an argument you have to accept on some level, unless you propose to make more radical changes to society. How many thousands of people could we have saved from car accidents in 2019 by banning nonessential driving?

The difference being you can't contract bad driving.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#228

Post by mhandley »

sjg007 wrote: post #102
microtherion wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes … which is no different from other countries. I seem to recall articles comparing the numbers, and the proportions seem similar in many places. > Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. Considering only the improvements in treatments made between March and now, it seems fairly evident that a strategy of front-loa…

There’s been no real progress in clinical treatment since March.

Dexamethasone decreases deaths of ventilated cases by a third: https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/recovery_dexamethasone_s...

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#229

Post by vkou »

frereubu wrote: post #5

One thing missing from this report is that a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes, and ministers have publicly stated that not entirely locking down care homes from the outset was a big mistake. If they had done this, the figures may well not look nearly as bad. Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. I'll be interested to see where countries are a year…

The entire purpose of the Sweedish strategy was to protect the elderly and the vulnerable.

And it failed.

You can't go back, and re-write history, now, and blame the elderly care homes for the failure of the strategy. They weren't the ones setting policy.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#230

Post by glofish »

madballster wrote: post #222
glofish wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is a year in the life of an 82 year old (median age of covid death) the same as a year in the life of a 10, 20 or 30 year old? I sure think not. So the comparisons are a bit moot. trading 60 years of 30 year olds for 1 year of an 82 year old is a trade that probably no 82 year old would want.

This is what happens is democratic societies with a demographic pyramid that's upside down: lots of old and relatively few young. Politicians want to get re-elected and cater to the largest, most influential voter group (old people) and disregard younger voters agendas.

It is not about old people, they don't want this either. If anything old people are a lot more conservative and libertarian. Once you are 82 you sure made piece with dying after all most people you grew up with have long passed.

It is more about catering to the sort of voter that is easily scared, exposed for the first time to the fact that life is indeed fragile and limited, a voter that looks at someone to protect them.

Old people are the pawns and "protecting" them is the spectacle of demonstrating competence in governing.

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