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Searchable PPP Loan Data

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Re: Searchable PPP Loan Data

#271

Post by apinstein »

throwaway_USD wrote: post #255
eric_b wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know lots of folks who got PPP loans. I don't know anyone who's getting 100% of their loan forgiven. Mainly because they took 2.5x monthly payroll as a loan - but then did an 8 week covered period (2x monthly payroll). Most of them will owe ~20% of the loan back to their lender since they had minimal other expenses.

>Most of them will owe ~20% of the loan back to their lender since they had minimal other expenses. That was my entire point is that the loans were designed to forgive a minimum of 75% of the loan, but it is 100% forgiven if they limited their loan application to 8 weeks of payroll. All the people you know took 20% more for salary than they were supposed to and they should pay it back. Even based on your personal exp…

It is not true that entire loan is forgiven if the payroll percent is met. Only the actual money spent on forgivable expenses (payroll + rent + interest on some debt) is forgivable. If you read the forgiveness application this is clear.

Overall though I’d expect 75-95% of program funds to be forgiven as they have extended the time window from 8 to 24 weeks making it much easier to use all funds in a forgivable way.

Re: Searchable PPP Loan Data

#272

Post by icedchai »

eric_b wrote: post #220
throwaway_USD wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"what about the nail salon who has 14 employees and took 5-10M?!?!". If true that is an obvious case of fraud and you are making my point, the only time a loan will be repaid is if the money was spent on things other than payroll...which amounts to fraud. Who cares if its a nail salon? Math is math, if you have 14 employees the maximum eligibility would be 8 weeks of payroll with a cap at $100k salary + up to an add…

I know lots of folks who got PPP loans. I don't know anyone who's getting 100% of their loan forgiven. Mainly because they took 2.5x monthly payroll as a loan - but then did an 8 week covered period (2x monthly payroll). Most of them will owe ~20% of the loan back to their lender since they had minimal other expenses.

I thought the period got extended to 24 weeks?

Re: Searchable PPP Loan Data

#273

Post by digitaltrees »

schoolornot wrote: post #257
digitaltrees wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great response. I wish all of the people criticizing these efforts would actually try to design a better program. Even the thought exercise would show how difficult it would be. Easier to crap on the work of others than actually do it yourself. I also wish they would think about the consequences of no action. They probably don’t realize that cascade bank failures and supply chain disruptions happen fast and become pe…

I remain unconvinced that so many companies were on "thin ice" that a do nothing approach would have caused a collapse. Any evidence of this? I would've been okay-ish with the arrangement if there was some narrow qualification criteria like being in the grocery business or medical supply chain, etc. Fine dining restaurants: not essential Summer camps: not essential Non-profits: not essential Law firms: not essential…

Do you know any restaurant owners or managers? Ask them about the drop in revenue and how long it can be sustained. Ask them how many employees they had and how many they need for curbside take out. Ask if they would have fired people absent PPP. Ask if they kept people employed because of PPP.

Do you have a better suggestion? I doubt it. There are to many edge cases in business to create a program that will be perfect. So your alternative is to take the risk of mass bankruptcies. If PPP designers and law makers are wrong billions are wasted. If your approach tested and is wrong, the economy is wrecked. Decision is easy when framed that way.

Re: Searchable PPP Loan Data

#274

Post by throwaway_USD »

eric_b wrote: post #260
throwaway_USD wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Most of them will owe ~20% of the loan back to their lender since they had minimal other expenses. That was my entire point is that the loans were designed to forgive a minimum of 75% of the loan, but it is 100% forgiven if they limited their loan application to 8 weeks of payroll. All the people you know took 20% more for salary than they were supposed to and they should pay it back. Even based on your personal exp…

Eh, I think the way I described it was fine. These are loans. I don't know anyone who's had even a single dollar forgiven yet. As far as I know there has been no official "forgiveness". What do you call a loan that you still owe? A loan. Once the forgiveness guidance is finalized and people are actually receiving it, then perhaps I will recharacterize my description.

>I don't know anyone who's had even a single dollar forgiven yet.

This is what I meant by political couching: Do you know any one who has paid back a single dollar?

>These are loans.

Fine care to loan me $1M and I'll pay you back 20% with interest.

Re: Searchable PPP Loan Data

#275

Post by digitaltrees »

schoolornot wrote: post #257
digitaltrees wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great response. I wish all of the people criticizing these efforts would actually try to design a better program. Even the thought exercise would show how difficult it would be. Easier to crap on the work of others than actually do it yourself. I also wish they would think about the consequences of no action. They probably don’t realize that cascade bank failures and supply chain disruptions happen fast and become pe…

I remain unconvinced that so many companies were on "thin ice" that a do nothing approach would have caused a collapse. Any evidence of this? I would've been okay-ish with the arrangement if there was some narrow qualification criteria like being in the grocery business or medical supply chain, etc. Fine dining restaurants: not essential Summer camps: not essential Non-profits: not essential Law firms: not essential…

When unemployment shoots to 25% it’s a sign of a lot of sever stress for businesses. Left uncheck the drop in demand will create further contraction. What more evidence do you want that urgent action system wide is needed? By the time the bankruptcy filings start its too late.

Re: Searchable PPP Loan Data

#276

Post by digitaltrees »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #258
digitaltrees wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many managers like their employees and don’t want to stiff them like that. My point was the argument that the government design PPP as an effort to perpetuate an existing system that reduces employees bargaining power and prefers businesses can’t be supported when the government specifically strengthen employees bargaining power.

I contend it didn’t strengthen the employees’ bargaining power, for the reasons I stated above. Unconditional cash would have. The powers that be know that loans obligations have been made that can only be satisfied if labor costs remain contained. Their primary objective is to make sure the mortgages keep getting paid, and paying employees double would endanger that. An easy illustration is the fact that “essential”…

There are no “powers that be” if you don’t like the system then change it. Start a company, pay people higher wages, build a competitive advantage. Or run for office. If you think there is some coordinated effort to oppress then build a counter effort.

I suspect what you would find is not some grand conspiracy but emergent properties from competitive forces.

Re: Searchable PPP Loan Data

#277

Post by luckylion »

digitaltrees wrote: post #209
uptown wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I think PPP saved the economy." You ain't seen nothing yet.

Only if people criticize these initial attempts and prevent more assistance. Yes. This is going to get worse, but government support could continue.

That's pretty much what people describe when they say "privatize the profits, socialize the losses", isn't it?

And you're already preparing to shift the blame towards the people critical of that approach.

Re: Searchable PPP Loan Data

#278

Post by kryogen1c »

throwaway_USD wrote: post #270
robhunter wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's helpful to follow the money. If it goes to salaries, those salaries are taxed (both payroll taxes for the employer and income taxes for the employee). Those salaries, for the most part, get spent - on things with sales tax, creating business profits that are taxed, and supporting the employment of employees' whose wages are also taxed. The idea that it's one giant money suck for businesses with no immedi…

>The idea that it's one giant money suck for businesses with no immediate return to the economy is not really accurate - it's not a zero-sum game. No one argues $600B wouldn't help the economy. Can you point to where I said PPP will not help the economy? Most people are starting to understand the fraud involved with PPP and understanding those funds could have gone to individuals and the money would have found its wa…

> those funds could have gone to individuals and the money would have found its way back into the economy just the same...only faster

how could this possibly be true? the economy started tanking because people stopped going out and spending money. giving people money wouldnt fix this.

Re: Searchable PPP Loan Data

#279

Post by H8crilA »

greatwave1 wrote: post #8

I'm working on a dashboard to map each of these loans geographically: https://www.quiverquant.com/sources/sbaloans It's a slow process (as I've been respectful of the rate-limit on the reverse geocoding API I'm using), but I finished mapping four states and hope to complete the other 46 by the end of this week.

> reverse geocoding

Nit: what you're doing is geocoding, not reverse geocoding. Geocoding is the process of turning strings into lats/longs. Reverse is the reverse of that, namely lats/longs into strings.

Re: Searchable PPP Loan Data

#280

Post by tfandango »

jacobsenscott wrote: post #259
tfandango wrote: post #26

Just looking through my home town for businesses I know about... A fair number of them I know carried on with business as usual and had no financial problems (one I used to work for). Seems wrong when there are lots of people in the same town lining up outside the unemployment office every day...

You wouldn't know if companies you don't work for are having financial problems. Most of the time you don't know even when working there until it all crashes down. These loans don't cause unemployment. Those same people would be unemployed even if those same businesses didn't apply for the loan. We are only a few months into a multi year pandemic, so even if a company isn't suffering yet, they most likely will be soo…

This is a good point I had not thought of, and I appreciate you saying it without any extra snark! The reason that company stood out was that I know half the people that work there and they have told me that things are going well (they are in the online learning business). But as you said perhaps they don't know, and even if not it would be wise to inoculate your company from unknown impacts later if you have the opportunity... thx.
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