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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#51

Post by alltakendamned »

martindbp wrote: post #12
throw-away_42 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden's total per-capita death rate is 50% higher than the Netherlands, 500% higher than Germany and Denmark, and 900+% higher than Finland, Norway, and Poland. All those deaths have not made you safer--your daily per-capita death rate is still several times that of those countries. Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

The current death rate, 10-15 people a day, is insignificant compared to other causes of death. It is not reasonable to talk about percentage differences when we're talking 15 vs 3 deaths a day.

Do note that there's easily a 15-day delay when it comes to Sweden reporting somewhat correct number of deaths, so let's not focus on the "current" death rate too much. And I expect the reporting delay to actually be worse right now as we're in the middle of vacation time.

Source: https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#52

Post by saalweachter »

drummer wrote: post #37
addled wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm For US data, I like how this table compares deaths from covid, flu, and pneumonia against the total deaths for all causes each week. I especially like that they show the ratio of current deaths vs the average of the 3 years prior for the same week. The downside is how the data is slowly updated as each state trickles in data, so the most recent 4-8 weeks look lower…

Unfortunately covid deaths are highly unreliable as there is lots of evidence worldwide that people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid. Also lots of cases of dead people being counted while not being tested or positively tested for covid.

During the peak of crisis in NYC, the death rate was ~6 times normal.

If those extra deaths weren't from COVID-19, what were they from?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#53

Post by oxymoran »

I find this article a little disingenuous and here is why: Sweden-5420 deaths out of a population of 10 million while no lock down. Michigan-6005 deaths out of a population of 10 million and we have been locked down since mid March.

To be clear, I was in favor of the lockdown at first and I still am in favor of keeping things like bars and casinos closed but it’s become clear that the virus doesn’t have much affect on younger populations and that the death rate has been dropping. Here in Michigan, while our daily new cases is still creeping up, our 7 day moving average of deaths has continued to plummet.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#54

Post by celticninja »

frereubu wrote: post #5

One thing missing from this report is that a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes, and ministers have publicly stated that not entirely locking down care homes from the outset was a big mistake. If they had done this, the figures may well not look nearly as bad. Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. I'll be interested to see where countries are a year…

I'm not sure that the UK has had no strategy, it's just that the strategy they chose may possibly be worse than no strategy at all.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#55

Post by watwut »

drummer wrote: post #37
addled wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm For US data, I like how this table compares deaths from covid, flu, and pneumonia against the total deaths for all causes each week. I especially like that they show the ratio of current deaths vs the average of the 3 years prior for the same week. The downside is how the data is slowly updated as each state trickles in data, so the most recent 4-8 weeks look lower…

Unfortunately covid deaths are highly unreliable as there is lots of evidence worldwide that people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid. Also lots of cases of dead people being counted while not being tested or positively tested for covid.

How do you think flu deaths are counted? Because that numbers shows also estimated death people - people who were never even tested on flu. Like, percentage of pneumonia deaths. And they contain also people also having other health issues and not just flu.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#56

Post by heavyavocado »

frereubu wrote: post #5

One thing missing from this report is that a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes, and ministers have publicly stated that not entirely locking down care homes from the outset was a big mistake. If they had done this, the figures may well not look nearly as bad. Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. I'll be interested to see where countries are a year…

Swede here. The leadership in Sweden has consistently tried to find different ways of justifying the strategy. Blaming the results on failing elderly care has been one such tactic. When you compare the raw numbers the proportion of elderly care deaths is actually in line with (or even less than) neighboring countries.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#57

Post by erichocean »

drummer wrote: post #37
addled wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm For US data, I like how this table compares deaths from covid, flu, and pneumonia against the total deaths for all causes each week. I especially like that they show the ratio of current deaths vs the average of the 3 years prior for the same week. The downside is how the data is slowly updated as each state trickles in data, so the most recent 4-8 weeks look lower…

Unfortunately covid deaths are highly unreliable as there is lots of evidence worldwide that people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid. Also lots of cases of dead people being counted while not being tested or positively tested for covid.

> people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid

Generic "flu" deaths are also counted the same way. Why do you think Covid deaths should be counted differently?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#58

Post by jooize »

jnwatson wrote: post #3

I don’t believe the article has addressed Sweden’s main argument for not shutting down: that herd immunity should be the prime driver. Essentially, that everyone is going to eventually have roughly the same death rate, so might as well get it over with. That remains to be seen; if Sweden’s peers can prevent flare-ups, it looks like Sweden was wrong.

Sweden's strategy nor argument has not been herd immunity. In my understanding, Sweden's intentions are to recommend or mandate measures deemed sustainable for a long time ahead.

Arguments in favor of minimal restrictions include: avoid exhaustion of compliance in the population; avoid disrupting the economy, and negative effects on economy likely will affect population health; …

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#59

Post by akmarinov »

oxymoran wrote: post #53

I find this article a little disingenuous and here is why: Sweden-5420 deaths out of a population of 10 million while no lock down. Michigan-6005 deaths out of a population of 10 million and we have been locked down since mid March. To be clear, I was in favor of the lockdown at first and I still am in favor of keeping things like bars and casinos closed but it’s become clear that the virus doesn’t have much affect o…

Well Sweden closed its borders, where Michigan can’t close its borders to other states, so Michigan’s is naturally higher.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#60

Post by berdario »

drummer wrote: post #31
martindbp wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is definitely many times worse than the flu, but probably not 10 and definitely not 100 times.

Nope: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/ Some quotes: “Under these conditions, there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses (χ2 test, P=0.11). Of course, the major flaw in this study is that the percentage of deaths attributable to the virus is not determined, but this is the case for all studies reporting respira…

You're omitting one important quote:

"less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing"

That paper is worthless.

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