Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal • Hacker News Board

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#281

Post by xfour » Mon, Jul 06, 2020, 3:54 PM UTC

cycomanic wrote: post #182

tyre wrote: post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

I've said this in another thread, the business of all these "startups" seems not to be of making a sustainable business, but instead it's more of a pyramid scheme where one set of investors are trying to make money of the next round of investors (up to and after IPO). If we view it like that it makes sense, the merger/acquisition will increase stock prices because it seems like there is a holistic strategy. At some p…

Couldn't agree more. I've also made this point ad-nauseam. How is this not more the typical story. The tech industry we all work in is just so good at selling snake oil in terms of technology that isn't relevant at inflated prices, we seem to have branched out into entire companies that don't make sense.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#282

Post by tguedes » Mon, Jul 06, 2020, 3:59 PM UTC

didibus wrote: post #159

jboydyhacker wrote: post #95

You can't take two one legged men and tape em together and win a race. UberEats and Postmates have the worst execution in the space compared to Caviar (owned by DoorDash), DoorDash and Grubhub. Dara is a banker, he doesn't know anything about operations. This will end bad.

What do you mean by execution? As a user, I've used them all, and like Uber Eats overall UX the best. But I suspect you were talking more about business operations?

If I was an investor, I would be worried that the CEO with no operations or technology experience is also the COO and CTO, is the one leading the operations and technology integration.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#283

Post by chrisjarvis » Mon, Jul 06, 2020, 4:07 PM UTC

DanCarvajal wrote: post #4

Surely Uber will be profitable with this addition.

-increasingly nervous man for the umpteenth time :D

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#284

Post by adjkant » Mon, Jul 06, 2020, 4:09 PM UTC

ipsi wrote: post #217

adjkant wrote: post #152

This feels like another grasp at straws, and one that may backfire quicker than expected based on my experience on the ground. In NYC I've recently noticed that the pandemic has created a much larger focus on delivery and takeout margins, and these platforms are actually losing good restaurants. I for one am happy based on who I see picking them up though: ChowNow. Right now, my 3 most common orders (and more I'm see…

Their website is just their logo. I'm assuming that's because they aren't offering service in the country I live in, but I'd expect them to at least say that? As it stands, I don't know if the page is broken, if my ad-blocker has screwed it up, or if they're just not offering me service...

My guess would be US only, though quite odd functionality for sure.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#285

Post by triangleman » Mon, Jul 06, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

finolex1 wrote: post #195

tyre wrote: post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

It is not impossible to achieve profitability. Seamless (what used to be every Wall Street Banker's go-to service) was profitable for a long while. Granted, they didn't have the same level of competition we see today.

I was looking for a comment mentioning Seamless. This is the best counter example. Note that these guys bootstrapped correctly from the start; as you mentioned, group buys was a great low cost/high margin way to get started.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#286

Post by skinnymuch » Mon, Jul 06, 2020, 4:21 PM UTC

hardtke wrote: post #80

0zymandias wrote: post #18

I am bullish on this as a recent shareholder. We are now in the consolidation phase of delivery service where fewer companies mean less competition, more efficiency and better economics. This is where Dara’s strength is. He has a history of great dealmaking and acquisitions. I expect Uber to thrive as the industry consolidates.

This merger might trigger an antitrust case. Although people who order stuff might have lower fees through economies of scale, restaurants and drivers could be negatively impacted (more of a monosopy). At some point we need to start considering gig workers as part of antitrust considerations.

Anti trust seems weak. 3rd and distant 4th place merging. Even weaker right now than T-mobile Sprint. Where other things like spectrum and infrastructure were big. They are one company now.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#287

Post by dustingetz » Mon, Jul 06, 2020, 4:25 PM UTC

cycomanic wrote: post #182

tyre wrote: post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

I've said this in another thread, the business of all these "startups" seems not to be of making a sustainable business, but instead it's more of a pyramid scheme where one set of investors are trying to make money of the next round of investors (up to and after IPO). If we view it like that it makes sense, the merger/acquisition will increase stock prices because it seems like there is a holistic strategy. At some p…

Will it fall down? When? (The whole global macro climate right now is a wealth transfer scheme, i guess from ultimately third world countries to (eventually) investors)

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#288

Post by skinnymuch » Mon, Jul 06, 2020, 4:26 PM UTC

manigandham wrote: post #74

selectodude wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GrubHub is huge in Chicago, in fact it was started at University of Chicago and is still based in Chicago.

Overall Doordash has beat them, especially now with the pandemic. Here's a breakdown: https://secondmeasure.com/datapoints/food-delivery-services-...

Just bases on recent numbers. How is it Uber and Postmates were battling for 3rd? And 1st and 2nd are close? Seems like Grubhub and Uber Eats are close now. With Doordash and Postmates both far apart.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#289

Post by sdinsn » Mon, Jul 06, 2020, 4:30 PM UTC

gigit_phd wrote: post #23

The only difference between Postmates and Uber Eats is that Postmates customers overwhelmingly tip the delivery driver. The Postmates app and systems is horrifically engineered. Uber Eats is an exceptionally better system.

> Postmates customers overwhelmingly tip the delivery driver

I've never used Uber Eats so I don't know what the app is like- but Postmates forces me to tip before I can order more food.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#290

Post by martinald » Mon, Jul 06, 2020, 4:36 PM UTC

bonestormii_ wrote: post #145

ThrustVectoring wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've worked as pizza delivery. The tipping and per-delivery payments to drivers is why it works. Roughly speaking, a delivery driver in my area nearly a decade ago earned roughly $20/hr after gas and car expenses, half in hourly wages @ state minimum and the other half in tips + $1/delivery payment. They also took about 3 deliveries an hour when fully utilized, which wasn't for 100% of their shift. The wait time got…

You raise an interesting point. Maybe with uber the goal is to integrate delivery work force with ride work force to improve utilization of drivers/deliverers. Horizontal, but complimentary.

In many markets they are different vehicles, scooters/(e)bikes for food delivery, cars for passenger transport.

Even in markets where cars are used a lot for food delivery; I can't see it really working very well. It's hard enough trying to schedule food delivery drivers being in the right place at the right time (often waiting a while for food to be ready if the order got delayed in the kitchen). Trying to then piece together humans going places in between seems virtually impossible.