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Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

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Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#151
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're assuming that domino's makes a profit on food delivery rather than breaking even on it. But domino's also makes the food, so if they break even on the deliver, that's fine, they made money on the food. Scaling the delivery part of the business also scales the food part. If you aren't making the food, you have to make money on the delivery alone because scaling your delivery service scales someone else's food b…

I imagine the end goal is the same as with Uber's main business. Automation

They'll need to survive for 10 years losing billions annually if that is their goal. And it will take them years to scale up automated rides/food delivery even after it becomes available.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#152
This feels like another grasp at straws, and one that may backfire quicker than expected based on my experience on the ground.

In NYC I've recently noticed that the pandemic has created a much larger focus on delivery and takeout margins, and these platforms are actually losing good restaurants. I for one am happy based on who I see picking them up though: ChowNow.

Right now, my 3 most common orders (and more I'm seeing daily) are all on ChowNow. Their model is a flat rate[1], not per delivery, and offer basically a self hosted (but in reality hosted), well designed, simple platform. Payment/address details are shared across restaurants so it's a similar feel to a Grubhub/Seamless/Postmates. They have their own search I just may start using[2], a lot of places around me are on it.

I got a postcard in one of my orders telling me prices were cheaper (no middleman tax) on their website (using ChowNow) and a 10% off code too. Another texted me. Worked great, was smooth, and my orders arrived consistently sooner too. Since then I actually think to check direct websites of places I find on Grubhub and found another few using it. Cheaper and quicker for me in all cases so far.

I think they may have cracked the code, because delivery is never going to be the profitable aspect no matter how much you could theoretically leverage Uber's cars or some nebulous eventuality of self-driving. But if your ordering system is all in one, it simplifies things dramatically for restaurants. Pickup, delivery, and in person all on the same system and no middleman fees per transaction. Someone mentioned Domino's, and it seems very close to Domino's as a service to some extent. As far as I can tell, the restaurants handle delivery themselves which seems more sustainable too. I am 0% affiliated with them but they seem to be the favorites of my favorite restaurants + a good and sustainable model.

I'm wondering if other cities are seeing the same adoption. I think this could take the delivery world by storm and make this acquisition look even worse, quick.

PS: I always felt like Postmates and Uber Eats were so interchangeable as is - high overlap of restaurants, nearly the same UI, and same very high fees even compared to other services. The only advantage either had was maybe offering a few more restaurants by doing menu scrape style things earlier and with some big chains before they got in on the delivery game, and that edge is gone now especially. I would expect the pandemic and this shift to motivate Postmates to exit, but I just don't see why Uber would want to realistically buy it. Seems like a play for market share in a market that doesn't work, and a low market share at that.

[1] https://get.chownow.com/pricing

[2] https://eat.chownow.com/

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#153

Clearly private industry has run out of profitable investments. Better to shift spending to public investments (science, education, err, the current public health emergency) than to waste more money on delivery boondoggles.

Unfortunately the recent trend of tearing down public statues probably doesn’t instill confidence that these kinds of corporate investments will be properly protected.

If it takes 155 years or so for people to decide they don't like that investment, I'd probably call that a sound investment. You could even put money into things that tend to be quite nice for people. Schools come to mind. Libraries. I'm spitballing.

Unless the plan is to build monuments to current day prison wardens. Depends how bad-faith the argument is, I suppose.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because price is all that customers actually care about Customers actually care about service, too, but the two-sided-market-drivers-aa-contractors models doesn’t really leave the parts of service that would matter in the hands of the delivery matchmaker, so it's true that all they have is price, not because it's all customers care about but because it's all the firm has any kind of control over, by design.

They could let customers pay a N% (say 10%) premium for a ...better-rated delivery courier? I'd be curious to see how that'd A/B test. Probably would fail, but nonetheless prove a point if there's any 'service' component that is possible to compete on.

I believe Uber eats is currently doing that. Recently I noticed an option to pay $1.50 extra for "Priority delivery" which may be a combination of what you mention as well as modifying the delivery algorithm in your favor.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#155

I am awaiting a Steve Jobs-like re-entry of Travis Kalanick back into Uber when Uber purchases CloudKitchens to complete its kitchen-to-door vertical integration. It's all very hypothetical, but I give it a 1% chance of happening.

Uber is doing fine without that garbage human.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#156
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a questions that’s going to pop up is, why does delivery work for a company like Dominos’s (vertical integration) but not Postmates (horizontal)?

I've worked as pizza delivery. The tipping and per-delivery payments to drivers is why it works. Roughly speaking, a delivery driver in my area nearly a decade ago earned roughly $20/hr after gas and car expenses, half in hourly wages @ state minimum and the other half in tips + $1/delivery payment. They also took about 3 deliveries an hour when fully utilized, which wasn't for 100% of their shift. The wait time got…

Corona changed tipping completely. Tips are now done through the platform if at all and no longer in cash to the delivery person reducing the chance that the money actually ends up where it is supposed to go.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#157

I am bullish on this as a recent shareholder. We are now in the consolidation phase of delivery service where fewer companies mean less competition, more efficiency and better economics. This is where Dara’s strength is. He has a history of great dealmaking and acquisitions. I expect Uber to thrive as the industry consolidates.

I'd like to provide an personal take on this - this will be a bad deal until Uber can be a super app doing 100x more things than it's doing today. So maybe never.

Why? Because exactly in China there was consolidation of food delivery apps into like 3 or 4 of them from 100+. But all of them are still burning lots of money from investors, except one - Meituan-Dianpin which built on this super app (first think of it as uber+yelp+groupon+tripadvisor+more) handling all kinds of life needs from food to labor service. Yet this super app barely started making profits recently after grabbing so much aspects of daily life, while its food delivery unit is still burning money, though contributing to the profiting units like ads.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#158

You can't take two one legged men and tape em together and win a race. UberEats and Postmates have the worst execution in the space compared to Caviar (owned by DoorDash), DoorDash and Grubhub. Dara is a banker, he doesn't know anything about operations. This will end bad.

What specifically do you think UberEats and Postmates aren't doing as well as the competition?

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#159

You can't take two one legged men and tape em together and win a race. UberEats and Postmates have the worst execution in the space compared to Caviar (owned by DoorDash), DoorDash and Grubhub. Dara is a banker, he doesn't know anything about operations. This will end bad.

What do you mean by execution? As a user, I've used them all, and like Uber Eats overall UX the best. But I suspect you were talking more about business operations?

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#160
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

Perhaps we’ll look back and say “food delivery was the pet food of the 2020 startup boom/bust.”

I think these businesses are awful and probably unethical, but from the outside it would surprise me if a single winner could not make this business model work, once they had so much of the market that delivery schedules could reach high utilisation.

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