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Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

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Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#141
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1) The $10 monthly credit on American Express Gold cards But the annual fee is $250, how is it worth it? At best if you use the $100 airline credit, which is now hard to "hack", and max out $10/mo on Grubhub, you're still paying $30 for the privilege...

> Earn 4X Points at U.S. supermarkets on up to $25,000 per calendar year in purchases. > Earn 4X Points on restaurants including takeout and delivery > Book a room through American Express Travel that's part of the Hotel Collection, stay two consecutive nights and get a $100 hotel credit to spend on qualifying dining, spa, and resort activities.

I wasn't able to utilize these benefits efficiently since the The Blue Cash Everyday® Card has 3X points @ Supermarkets has no annual fee and I have another card for restaurants.

I suppose if you max out all the categories it's not a bad card if it's all you have.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#142
post #38

What I find interesting about the food delivery business is that there's clearly a market for this but nobody's happy. - Restaurants (rightly) complain that the drivers provide a poor service. For example, pizza delivered cold because the drivers have no heat bags. I've even heard of a pizza box mounted vertically on a delivery bicycle. - Customers are unhappy because food can be delivered cold through no fault of th…

I foresee a future where the entirety of listings on food delivery apps will be ghost restaurants - those whose menu and processes are optimized for delivery. Many high street brick-and-mortar restaurants will shut, but those that remain will likely make being "not available on any food delivery app" a unique selling proposition.

Kalanick's next startup is basically this concept: CloudKitchens. At this point, it might be more of a risky real estate play than anything (to get these ghost kitchens set up in major cities with many hungry would-be customers).

Centralizing the restaurants seems key to profitability. The current format is too costly.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#143
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, for one thing, "integration". Domino's is built to deliver pizzas. They have streamlined the process of an order being placed, prepped, and handed off to delivery to try to make each step of the process as efficient as possible. Do "horizontal" delivery companies have similar integration and benefit from similar efficiency? In an ideal delivery situation, you want two things to be true: first, delivery people s…

I suppose the argument goes: if anyone can approach that optimality, it's a company with a large fleet of repurposable drivers. Being able to dispatch to a driver in motion depends on having a suitable driver available. I'm still doubtful it can ever work, for the reasons people mentioned above. But the realistic game is that Uber becomes the new Yelp and strongarms restaurants for a share of their profit, in return…

Other way I see it working out is Uber gets so optimized that they can have a driver double dip with a delivery and passengers going on the same route.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#145
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a questions that’s going to pop up is, why does delivery work for a company like Dominos’s (vertical integration) but not Postmates (horizontal)?

I've worked as pizza delivery. The tipping and per-delivery payments to drivers is why it works. Roughly speaking, a delivery driver in my area nearly a decade ago earned roughly $20/hr after gas and car expenses, half in hourly wages @ state minimum and the other half in tips + $1/delivery payment. They also took about 3 deliveries an hour when fully utilized, which wasn't for 100% of their shift. The wait time got…

You raise an interesting point. Maybe with uber the goal is to integrate delivery work force with ride work force to improve utilization of drivers/deliverers. Horizontal, but complimentary.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#146
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will make sense when cities will have a better infrastructure for targeted deliveries. I'm thinking routes for drones and clear delivery spots. Would not be surprised 30y from now most homes won't have kitchen anymore. You'll have an access where a drone can come in an deliver whatever you ordered.

I do not look forward to that kind of future. As someone who has worked in food preparation, meals are usually quite unhealthy because they are designed to taste great. I can’t imagine eating delivered meals daily is good for your long term health. You would be surprised that seemingly healthy food, when made at a restaurant, is often anything but.

Yea, "Super Size Me" is a great documentary to watch in that regard.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Size_Me

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#147
post #97
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jump bikes still exist. Not sure what you're on about.

I'm not sure where you're located, but the Jump bikes in Seattle are now operated by Lime (even though you still rent them in the Uber app for some reason). https://www.geekwire.com/2020/jump-bikes-return-seattle-lime...

Yeah, they are now under Lime operations

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure I understand - Netflix has the same problem as Disney and HBO, they must spend a ton on content to differentiate.

Yes, most content producers have the same problem but few have to maintain the pace Netflix needs to keep users subscribed to a unlimited platform. Disney has a very strong and very culturally defining position. They are also more diversified and generate cashflow from multiple sources. Disney+ is also mostly content that has already been "paid for" by either box office sales or licensed merchandise.For example, sell…

Netflix and the traditional studios are almost opposites in how they make money from content. Netflix has profitable streaming that subsidizes content creation. Disney/HBO have profitable content creation (with risk mitigated by other business divisions) and that subsidizes streaming.

So with production/sports halted by COVID for everyone, and streaming rising, Disney is getting hit by a perfect storm, while Netflix managed to catch some breathing room.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#149

I am bullish on this as a recent shareholder. We are now in the consolidation phase of delivery service where fewer companies mean less competition, more efficiency and better economics. This is where Dara’s strength is. He has a history of great dealmaking and acquisitions. I expect Uber to thrive as the industry consolidates.

Remember JUMP? They were acquired for $200M like, a year and a half ago. As far as I can tell, they don't exist anymore.

With the very recent Lime investment they laid off the NeMo (aka Jump) team and it’s product lines. The bikes were solid, rip.
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