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Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

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Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#51

Postmates raised $903M since 2012: https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/postmates Not a 10x exit.

> Postmates raised $903M since 2012 ... Not a 10x exit. I suspect that many of the investors are just happy to record a profitable exit.

I wonder how many of those investors are also in to uber.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#52

I am bullish on this as a recent shareholder. We are now in the consolidation phase of delivery service where fewer companies mean less competition, more efficiency and better economics. This is where Dara’s strength is. He has a history of great dealmaking and acquisitions. I expect Uber to thrive as the industry consolidates.

A more cynical take on this might be that it's hard to actually turn a sustainable profit in this market unless you have monopolistic pricing power, and hence, consolidation. Less of "the strong get stronger" and more of "the unprofitable become few enough to become profitable"

> A more cynical take on this might be that it's hard to actually turn a sustainable profit in this market unless you have monopolistic pricing power,

I'm not convinced even a sole provider would have pricing power in anything but a vastly smaller market than currently exists: food delivery doesn't compete with only other food delivery, but also with “drive there yourself takeout” and “cook (or at least heat up) food at home”, which limits the scope of pricing power.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#53
post #40
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I use Grubhub most of the time, and I’ve found the thing that keeps me on the platform is 1) The $10 monthly credit on American Express Gold cards and 2) The 2% cash back from the Rakuten portal, which stacks with the 4x points from the Amex card. Of course, a lot of restaurants end up increasing their prices on Grubhub to make up for their fees, and rightly so (I phone in using the number listed on Apple Maps). I st…

> 1) The $10 monthly credit on American Express Gold cards But the annual fee is $250, how is it worth it? At best if you use the $100 airline credit, which is now hard to "hack", and max out $10/mo on Grubhub, you're still paying $30 for the privilege...

> Earn 4X Points at U.S. supermarkets on up to $25,000 per calendar year in purchases.

> Earn 4X Points on restaurants including takeout and delivery

> Book a room through American Express Travel that's part of the Hotel Collection, stay two consecutive nights and get a $100 hotel credit to spend on qualifying dining, spa, and resort activities.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#54
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

I think it will make sense when cities will have a better infrastructure for targeted deliveries. I'm thinking routes for drones and clear delivery spots. Would not be surprised 30y from now most homes won't have kitchen anymore. You'll have an access where a drone can come in an deliver whatever you ordered.

>Would not be surprised 30y from now most homes won't have kitchen anymore.

That is definitely scary. A big reason for America's obesity epidemic is because of processed ingredients. Markets drive restaurants to maintain high margins, and so they will always be on the lookout for processed ingredients as cheap alternatives. I need a kitchen because it's the only way for me to audit exactly what ingredients I am going to put into my body.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#55
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

> Margins are terrible, if they’re ever positive. It’s just a bad business.

That's simply false. A lot of profit is made in the space and as soon as you have some significant market share it becomes a cash cow.

Yes, it might not always work to start up in a already saturated market, but that shouldn't be a surprise.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#56
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

> We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.

Ooof, I remember that from 2000. Does anyone look at unit economics?

PT Barnum made a book called "the art of money getting" - which could help many, worth the read.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#57
post #31
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

I saw someone online saying how they didn't get their ranch with their pizza, so they called up customer service and eventually got a whole new pizza out of the deal. I understand it sucks to not get your ranch, but come on...

well from the customer view (i think i have been this person a few times).. i dont exist to keep your company afloat. I trusted you to do what you said, and i gave you my money. and you didnt do what you said you would do.

Dear Company, if you cant do your job you shouldnt exist

Self promoting tip: hire people who feel this

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#58
post #31
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

I saw someone online saying how they didn't get their ranch with their pizza, so they called up customer service and eventually got a whole new pizza out of the deal. I understand it sucks to not get your ranch, but come on...

These delivery companies running at a loss are valued almost entirely based on growth in MAUs. Giving a customer a free pizza may be worth it if it keeps them on the platform, considering how much it costs to aquire a new customer.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#59
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

I think it will make sense when cities will have a better infrastructure for targeted deliveries. I'm thinking routes for drones and clear delivery spots. Would not be surprised 30y from now most homes won't have kitchen anymore. You'll have an access where a drone can come in an deliver whatever you ordered.

Redesigning our cities to make predatory business models work is the opposite of what the United States needs right now.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#60
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will make sense when cities will have a better infrastructure for targeted deliveries. I'm thinking routes for drones and clear delivery spots. Would not be surprised 30y from now most homes won't have kitchen anymore. You'll have an access where a drone can come in an deliver whatever you ordered.

> Would not be surprised 30y from now most homes won't have kitchen anymore. You'll have an access where a drone can come in an deliver whatever you ordered. I suspect you vastly underestimate how cheap and time effective cooking at home can be. My girlfriend and I just mealprepped 8 meals for $30. Took 15min of active work. The whole week we both get a healthy balanced meal that takes 2min to prepare. No delivery co…

My interest is piqued. What 8 meals did you make in 15 minutes? Did you purchase already cooked food?
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