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‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

voiceofaction.org

21–30 of 49 posts

Re: ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

#21
I’m sorry - I don’t buy this article at all.

I am not a climate denier, just a reasonable person with a brain. Obviously global warming/global climate change is real. Obviously, green house gas emissions by humans are the main culprit.

But I do not for one second believe that civilization will collapse, at least not in say the next couple of hundred years.

Ecosystems are already toast -GBR will mostly die in the next 50 years. Rainforests and biodiversity, deforestation etc are history. Already dead. But will human beings and our civilization “collapse”? No way.

These “climate refugees” everyone talks about “overwhelming” us actually stinks of xenophobia. And in what way is a climate refugee different from a regular refugee? The developing world is already a catastrophe, yet I wouldn’t say refugees are overwhelming us.

Bacially my view is this: yeah it’s bad but saying that 6 billion people will die which is what this article suggests is alarmist nonsense.

Re: ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

#22
post #7
post #2

Fellow techies interested in helping solve the climate crisis may be interested in https://climateaction.tech/ :)

I am a tech guy, but I am not very optimistic about finding a technological solution for this. The problem is energy, how much energy do we need to change to move to a greener infrastructure? There is also the paradox of jevrons [1]. I need to slow down the economy and, at the same time, ensure that everyone lives a decent life. This would be real progress. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

There is a whole lot that we can do. A plant caused the last ice age[1]. If we could genetically engineer that plant to grow on the ocean, it would sequester an incredible amount of CO2.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azolla_event

Re: ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

#23
post #20
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it not possible that we find a way to scrub carbon straight out of the atmosphere and trap it underground? I don't know, and would be happy to pointed towards research on this, but it doesn't strike me as a simple energy-in-energy-out situation. There seems to be the potential for a brilliant technological solution.

They’re called trees.

Not really - By converting pasture back to woodland you could potentially restore some of the released carbon from agriculture-driven destruction of old forest land. But it won't make up for the vast reserves of carbon that have been dredged up from deep underground and released to the atmosphere. If it's necessary to re-balance that withdrawal we're going to need to put something back down there, or come up with something novel.

Re: ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

#24

Voice of action is a Marxist propoganda website

I think it is good style to combine especially strong opinions with especially strong supporting facts, proofs, evidence, or arguments.

Editor opinion on Marx [0] and the 'About' section of the web site [1] where class struggle is prominently featured give some credibility to this opinion.

[0] https://mobile.twitter.com/ashermoses/status/118064266205285...

[1] https://voiceofaction.org/about/

Re: ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

#25
post #16
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can try degrowth. We need to find a way to live well and decrease the GDP. The article talks about the limits of growth for, those who don't know what it is you can watch this video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kz9wjJjmkmc

How are you going to tell subsistence populations to stagnate? Are we going to tell high fertility populations and high density populations that they must stop and reduce growth for the future of the planet? All of the above are necessary but you have to achieve it through growth (i.e. middle class economies)

Degrowth bezos

Re: ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

#26

Voice of action is a Marxist propoganda website

I think it is good style to combine especially strong opinions with especially strong supporting facts, proofs, evidence, or arguments.

"Propaganda" is mostly used more just as an insult than as an objective category, but the founder of this website would indeed seem to literally be a Marxist. In his Twitter feed, he advocates policies similar to those advocated by Marx, using language similar to Marx's. He also refers to Marx directly by name in approving terms:

https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3Aashermoses%20marx&src=ty...

This of course doesn't make anything claimed in the article any more or less true, but the purportedly scientific conclusions here do align nicely with his politics.

As to the article, Malthusian predictions have a long history of being incredibly wrong. It seems likely to me that global warming will continue to a point that many current agricultural practices must be abandoned for new ones, and that this transition will result in many deaths; but that's not the "collapse of civilization". Maybe scientists frustrated by the public's slow response to this serious problem have decided to try falsely portraying it as an apocalyptic problem, to see if that gets a faster response; but I doubt that it will, and it's a lie either way.

Re: ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

#27
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a tech guy, but I am not very optimistic about finding a technological solution for this. The problem is energy, how much energy do we need to change to move to a greener infrastructure? There is also the paradox of jevrons [1]. I need to slow down the economy and, at the same time, ensure that everyone lives a decent life. This would be real progress. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

There is a whole lot that we can do. A plant caused the last ice age[1]. If we could genetically engineer that plant to grow on the ocean, it would sequester an incredible amount of CO2. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azolla_event

Most of the discussion of combatting climate change focuses on reducing atmospheric CO2, but there's an entire second category of approaches: Solar Radiation Management, some of which could be much faster and cheaper than reducing CO2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management

While reducing CO2 emissions via investment in renewables is still an important long term goal, if we're already heading towards a potentially catastrophic situation, it seems we should be investigating other forms of climate engineering more seriously?

Re: ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

#28

I’m sorry - I don’t buy this article at all. I am not a climate denier, just a reasonable person with a brain. Obviously global warming/global climate change is real. Obviously, green house gas emissions by humans are the main culprit. But I do not for one second believe that civilization will collapse, at least not in say the next couple of hundred years. Ecosystems are already toast -GBR will mostly die in the next…

The term 'refugee' does not even appear in the article.

... and while people do talk about 'climate refugees', nobody is talking about them 'overwhelming us'. And FYI it definitely does not take too many people to overwhelm a social system with benevolent impetus, as we saw starkly in Sweden, 2016.

As for the materiality of the article and what should set off alarm bells:

"“For example, it appears that the USA is entering a long period of decline in many aspect of its society, with a potential for a more rapid collapse in the coming decade,” said Steffen.

"Samuel Alexander, a lecturer with the University of Melbourne and research fellow at the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, told Voice of Action that the coming collapse would not be a single black or white event.

“With respect to civilisations, what is more likely is that we have entered a stage of what JM Greer calls ‘catabolic collapse’ – where we face decades of ongoing crises, as the existing mode of civilisation deteriorates, but then recovers as governments and civil society tries to respond, and fix things, and keep things going for a bit longer,” said Alexander.

“Capitalism is quite good at dodging bullets and escaping temporary challenges to its legitimacy and viability. But its condition, I feel is terminal.”

"“As economies deteriorate and as inequalities deepen, more people get disenfranchised, incentivising resistance and sadly sometimes making people look for scapegoats to blame for new or intensifying hardships (e.g. the so-called alt-right),”"

“I think global capitalism is realising that the parasitical nature that has emerged (where the top 1% own the vast majority of the world’s wealth), can only be sustained for so long,” said Buckley"

We have:

A) America in social decline (political statement)

B) the other boogey man 'capitalism' as the root cause obviously!

C) The 'alt right' (are we talking about the environment here?)

D) Researchers work cancelled for ostensibly political reasons, which is not good, but it's also not objective either.

So the problem with the article, is that a lot of the authorship is deeply ideological. This is hard issue to escape when trying to put an economic value of such things as 'pollution and traffic' vs other elements.

Far too many references to their representation of 'inequality', and major gaps in their assumptions as to how that leads to social decay, for this to be a serious treatise on climate.

And of course, no mention of Nuclear Energy, which is odd, given 'existential threat' you'd think we'd try to use something that is already fairly well proven.

Re: ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

#29

Voice of action is a Marxist propoganda website

I think it is good style to combine especially strong opinions with especially strong supporting facts, proofs, evidence, or arguments.

There are no facts in the article to support any of their many sociological positions.

For example, that inequality of asset ownership leads to social decay. That there is even actually social decay or real instability in America.

One thing missed by in the treatise and a lot of comments, is that 'consumption' is somehow tantamount to 'resource utilisation'. Obviously, there is a correlation. But a considerable amount of what we 'consume' does not entail necessarily excessive resource consumption. Plastics, electronics doesn't eat up a lot of 'resources', though some parts perhaps more than others i.e. 'alkaline batteries'. Huge swaths of our consumption aren't even related to resources: entertainment, video games, software, social networks etc..

If they are really smart, they would take some time to decouple the 'resource intensive' aspects of consumption, with those that are not, and help industry to optimise along those lines.

Re: ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

#30

I’m sorry - I don’t buy this article at all. I am not a climate denier, just a reasonable person with a brain. Obviously global warming/global climate change is real. Obviously, green house gas emissions by humans are the main culprit. But I do not for one second believe that civilization will collapse, at least not in say the next couple of hundred years. Ecosystems are already toast -GBR will mostly die in the next…

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