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Color Will Be The Pin That Bursts The Startup Bubble

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Re: Color Will Be The Pin That Bursts The Startup Bubble

#11
post #9
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i see ~$83b valuation, and ~500m active users, putting it at around $166/user

Is a valuation actually given with the expectation that they'll make that amount of money each year?

The value of a stock is the total future profit of a company priced in today's dollars.

Re: Color Will Be The Pin That Bursts The Startup Bubble

#12
post #11
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is a valuation actually given with the expectation that they'll make that amount of money each year?

The value of a stock is the total future profit of a company priced in today's dollars.

So if I'm understanding correctly, if they only make $1 per user per year, and do that for the next 166 years (not adjusting for inflation,) then they're just as well off?

Re: Color Will Be The Pin That Bursts The Startup Bubble

#13
How come everyone misses the fact that the app doesn't make the company. I think color actually redefines "social". If these guys are successful in executing their vision, their current valuation will seem a no-brainer. I seriously don't understand all the negativity and backlash around their launch.

This is coming from a guy that couldn't get their app to work. Every time I try to take my picture, the app crashes. But I don't think that really matters.

Isn't this the same community that proclaims, if you are not embarrassed with your initial product release, then you haven't released it early enough. ?

Re: Color Will Be The Pin That Bursts The Startup Bubble

#14
Facebook valuation is only $20/user each year (profit).

Simple Valuation Breakdown: Take $80 billion and divide it by an EBITDA multiple of 10 = $8 billion. Divide that by 400m users, for $20 profit/user each year.

EDIT: EBITDA: Earning before income tax depreciation and amortization.

Re: Color Will Be The Pin That Bursts The Startup Bubble

#15
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you getting $5k/user/year?

I just pulled it out of the air for dramatic purposes.

Yeah, but your drama is way off.

They claim 500MM active users. Assume that's a total lie, and it's 50MM. Assume their valuation is 100 billion (twice the Goldman round).

Let's also assume that they hit a P/E ratio of, oh, 10. (Google's at 22, Apple 19, Yahoo 18, so 10 is really low.)

So to hit a 100b valuation, they'd need to earn 10b annually, or $200/user.

$200/user is on the high end, but reasonable, at least as far as U.S. users are concerned.

(For what it's worth: Twitter would have been a good example, I think.)

Re: Color Will Be The Pin That Bursts The Startup Bubble

#17
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just pulled it out of the air for dramatic purposes.

Yeah, but your drama is way off. They claim 500MM active users. Assume that's a total lie, and it's 50MM. Assume their valuation is 100 billion (twice the Goldman round). Let's also assume that they hit a P/E ratio of, oh, 10. (Google's at 22, Apple 19, Yahoo 18, so 10 is really low.) So to hit a 100b valuation, they'd need to earn 10b annually, or $200/user. $200/user is on the high end, but reasonable, at least as…

Facebook has 500 Million active users, where active is defined as logging in at least once a month.

Re: Color Will Be The Pin That Bursts The Startup Bubble

#18
post #13

How come everyone misses the fact that the app doesn't make the company. I think color actually redefines "social". If these guys are successful in executing their vision, their current valuation will seem a no-brainer. I seriously don't understand all the negativity and backlash around their launch. This is coming from a guy that couldn't get their app to work. Every time I try to take my picture, the app crashes. B…

All of the startup mantras hacker news recites go out the window if you raise lots of capital, apparently.

Re: Color Will Be The Pin That Bursts The Startup Bubble

#19
post #18
post #13

How come everyone misses the fact that the app doesn't make the company. I think color actually redefines "social". If these guys are successful in executing their vision, their current valuation will seem a no-brainer. I seriously don't understand all the negativity and backlash around their launch. This is coming from a guy that couldn't get their app to work. Every time I try to take my picture, the app crashes. B…

All of the startup mantras hacker news recites go out the window if you raise lots of capital, apparently.

And they should. There's a big difference between two guys renting a house and living of their savings accounts pre-launch and 41 million dollars and 27 employees pre-launch.

Re: Color Will Be The Pin That Bursts The Startup Bubble

#20
post #19
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the startup mantras hacker news recites go out the window if you raise lots of capital, apparently.

And they should. There's a big difference between two guys renting a house and living of their savings accounts pre-launch and 41 million dollars and 27 employees pre-launch.

Why?
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