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Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

reuters.com

21–30 of 643 posts

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#21
post #3

Honest question here. Are these neighborhoods “over policed” because their residents commit more crimes, or do the residents commit more crimes because their neighborhood is “over policed”?

I would argue that non-white neighborhoods are policed heavier, and as a consequence they "catch more criminals" in those neighborhoods.

Violent crime can be measured by victims rather than criminals, e.g. where do homicides occur?

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#22
post #3

Honest question here. Are these neighborhoods “over policed” because their residents commit more crimes, or do the residents commit more crimes because their neighborhood is “over policed”?

I would argue that non-white neighborhoods are policed heavier, and as a consequence they "catch more criminals" in those neighborhoods.

Do these neighborhoods commit more violent crime, rapes and murders?

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#23
post #8
post #3

Honest question here. Are these neighborhoods “over policed” because their residents commit more crimes, or do the residents commit more crimes because their neighborhood is “over policed”?

or crime is a function of income inequality, and ways to fight it are police (reactive) or preventative social spending (proactive.) it's like arguing over fire departments vs electrical code. neglecting the latter leads to more of the former. Even things like urban planning, where you put your low income housing. If you build low income housing in high income areas, it prevents ghettos from forming.

Crime is a function of far more than just income inequality. If you perform your regressions on this single variable and then attempt to extrapolate those results to make policy, you're going to end up spending a lot of money without solving anything. Worse is that you'll potentially put millions of lives at risk.

If we want to solve problems in society we must be prepared to acknowledge all of their potential causes.

I have spent my entire adult life, some 15 years, in pursuit of objective inquiry and this is a hill that I am willing to die on, or be martyred when it inevitably costs me my job.

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food for thought, more than 50% of the federal budget is already spent on social services.

I'm curious what your source is for that, because that's pretty remarkable, especially given the outcry about out-of-control military spending.

Arbitrarily citing https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/policy-basics-w...

The bulk of social services spending is social security and medicare, which _each_ account for somewhere between 20-30% of federal spending. Military spending is closer to 15-20% of the federal budget

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#25
post #3

Honest question here. Are these neighborhoods “over policed” because their residents commit more crimes, or do the residents commit more crimes because their neighborhood is “over policed”?

I used to sit on my friends porch when I was in college before pot was legalized, smoking. We are white people in a white area. If we had been black I have no doubt the increased police presence would have resulted in us getting arrested. There are tons of other stupid things I did when younger where if there had been more cops around I would have gone to jail. More police means more people are arrested for the same…

Unfortunately, law and order has to be standardized for everybody, regardless of background. Pot was decriminalized in many states already. Are there other things you would like to decriminalize? There are avenues for those, but it’s not a fast turn-around, those things take time.

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#26
post #3

Honest question here. Are these neighborhoods “over policed” because their residents commit more crimes, or do the residents commit more crimes because their neighborhood is “over policed”?

I would argue that non-white neighborhoods are policed heavier, and as a consequence they "catch more criminals" in those neighborhoods.

That wouldn't explain things like murder and other violent crimes. It's not like people are regularly getting murdered in the suburbs, but nobody bothered to check.

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food for thought, more than 50% of the federal budget is already spent on social services.

I'm curious what your source is for that, because that's pretty remarkable, especially given the outcry about out-of-control military spending.

There are some semantic issues, e.g., the distinction between "mandatory" and "discretionary" expenditures, but the data is pretty easy to explore.

Essentially you are "both right". > 50% of total spending is Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Whether that is "social services" is another semantic question.

And > 50% of the discretionary budget is defense.

But have a look for yourself: e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to sit on my friends porch when I was in college before pot was legalized, smoking. We are white people in a white area. If we had been black I have no doubt the increased police presence would have resulted in us getting arrested. There are tons of other stupid things I did when younger where if there had been more cops around I would have gone to jail. More police means more people are arrested for the same…

Unfortunately, law and order has to be standardized for everybody, regardless of background. Pot was decriminalized in many states already. Are there other things you would like to decriminalize? There are avenues for those, but it’s not a fast turn-around, those things take time.

The law is standardized for everyone, its enforcement that is the issue. There are clear differences in enforcement for different races and different wealth levels.

My example occurred many moons ago before pot was decriminalized any where. I am old :)

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#29
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

or crime is a function of income inequality, and ways to fight it are police (reactive) or preventative social spending (proactive.) it's like arguing over fire departments vs electrical code. neglecting the latter leads to more of the former. Even things like urban planning, where you put your low income housing. If you build low income housing in high income areas, it prevents ghettos from forming.

Is there evidence for this though? The great crime decline in cities like NYC were due to increased policing and the “broken window” policy, along with stop & frisk.

That is what its proponents would want you to believe, except that it's not borne out by evidence. There were similar drops in other cities that didn't violate the civil rights of the citizens.

And that's putting aside the question of whether it's right to deny people their rights in order to deter crime.

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#30
post #8
post #3

Honest question here. Are these neighborhoods “over policed” because their residents commit more crimes, or do the residents commit more crimes because their neighborhood is “over policed”?

or crime is a function of income inequality, and ways to fight it are police (reactive) or preventative social spending (proactive.) it's like arguing over fire departments vs electrical code. neglecting the latter leads to more of the former. Even things like urban planning, where you put your low income housing. If you build low income housing in high income areas, it prevents ghettos from forming.

While this is absolutely true, I'm not sure it's a reasonable argument for defunding the police today. You wouldn't defund the fire department today, because in ten years buildings will average a better standard. The social issues need to be dealt with first, which could take some years.

On the other hand, that the police have become what appears to be a poorly trained, violent militia is indeed a problem that should be dealt with today. Perhaps by defunding. I don't know...

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