Live data from Hacker News

Neil Armstrong's reply to a Moon landing skeptic

kottke.org

141–150 of 201 posts

Re: Neil Armstrong's reply to a Moon landing skeptic

#141

While we laugh at skeptics, often they serve a valuable purpose. Skeptics have often revolutionized our understanding of the universe. Like Galileo. We should be careful of unquestioningly believing "established" facts.

There's intelligent skepticism, and then there's skepticism for the sake of skepticism. It's not that hard to tell apart the Galileos from the Kyrie Irvings. Skeptics deserve legal protections, but they don't deserve attention if they say things like the Earth is flat.

> It's not that hard to tell apart the Galileos from the Kyrie Irvings.

Easy to say that today since you've been taught from birth that Galileo was right.

Just the other day I confronted a person who insisted that Edison electrocuted an elephant. He dared me to look it up. I did, and presented irrefutable evidence that Edison did not. He was unconvinced - after all, it's common knowledge that Edison did the dirty deed.

Except he didn't.

Re: Neil Armstrong's reply to a Moon landing skeptic

#142
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What it really comes down to is these people severely lack in critical thinking, so while it is surprising that they fail to account for other, seemingly obvious externalities, it really shouldn’t be.

This critical thinking critique is pretty tautological. In effect we are saying "these people with wrong ideas, the problem is they are not good at getting ideas right". But that isn't useful/actionable knowledge. WHY are they bad at getting ideas right? Is it innate to the average human biology? Is it something that has gotten worse as more people have gotten onto the internet where they are exposed to non-curated d…

We are naturally far better at identifying what's plausible instead of sorting out what is likely, and we're better at giving kudos and recognition for the former than the latter even though it's easier. That makes some people hyperdevelop "theorizing" without working on "validation."

We are dangerously good at making up stories to explain data. Talk to anyone about a spurious correlation[0] and they can provide you a just-so story that explains it as a real correlation in under a minute.

Provide anyone with two competing theories that each account for some but not all of the available data, then ask them to rank the two based on likelihood. You'll make people visibly upset. (Our ability to invent new theories to fit any circumstance might partly explain why, for a while, explorers forgot how to cure scurvy.[1])

And it's easier to "look smart" the first way. No one can immediately determine whether you're good at the second unless you make a long series of predictions evaluated over time while constantly gathering more data. Everyone can see if you've connected a few dots in a clever and unexpected way. Talking heads are regarded as experts for going on shows and making vague predictions based on a few recent events, but are never called back to scrutinize their predictive track record.[2]

Conspiracy theorists are generally just arguing something is plausible, and ignoring the messy step about what's more likely, with the implication you should just leap from plausible immediately to unwavering conviction.

Some of this is just, well, one of these things is hard and the other is easy. But I'm confident both can be learned to some extent, based on personal experience of getting a better sense for these over time.

So to the extent this is "fixable" at all,[3] maybe greater education about meta-cognition (esp. cognitive biases), the history of analytic philosophy, a humility about what one knows, and/or Bayesian reasoning earlier in education might help.

Sidenote, this itself is arguably just another just-so theory too. Maybe I'm wrong about it all. :)

[0] e.g., http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

[1] https://idlewords.com/2010/03/scott_and_scurvy.htm

[2] This is Phillip Tetlock's whole area of research.

[3] To be fair, maybe we've already "fixed" this pretty well, we tend to attribute far fewer things to witchcraft than a few hundred years ago, maybe normal everyday education and expansion of literacy is enough and there will always be a handful of outliers and trolls. See also: https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and...

Re: Neil Armstrong's reply to a Moon landing skeptic

#143
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't the wmd not a fraud? It was just overselling a truth. IIRC the claim was that Saddam Hussein had ceased reporting the location of stockpiles of nuclear material that the UN used to keep track of. The sin of the bush administration was that they sold it to the public that this was a national security threat even though they knew it was very lightly enriched and counted on the public not knowing or caring (remem…

They not only sold lie to the US they sold it to the world. Colin Powell stood up at the UN to present the world his Power Point of lies: https://theintercept.com/2018/02/06/lie-after-lie-what-colin...

I guess the question could hinge on if yellowcake is truly wmd or not, but regardless the administration openly claimed it was, and that's what they based their argument on, and iirc that yellowcake was found.

Re: Neil Armstrong's reply to a Moon landing skeptic

#144
post #32
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The most effective way to prevent people from looking into something is to poison the well. Attach the thing to something else obviously false, bonus points if evokes a negative emotional response. But then what is the end goal of all this? Anti-US propaganda?

To cause the desired effect. It's the most effective technique to stop people from looking at something. Consider why this purely technical, on-topic and perfectly NIST sourced comment was flagged: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23419760 screenshot: http://v6y.net/1592547475.screenshot.png

I assume it was flagged because unless you're already a true believer, "look! this falling building is falling according to the laws of physics" is not a very strong argument.

Re: Neil Armstrong's reply to a Moon landing skeptic

#145
post #120

I read it somewhere that the best way to respond to conspiracy theorist is to make a more outlandish claim: - Moon landing was fake. - You believe in the Moon?!

The best way is to use the Socratic method, if you have a lot of time. If you throw enough wilful ignorance, compliments, kindness, genuine interest and an endless amount of questions at someone, you’ll eventually get them arguing with them selves. It’s really the only way to move someone, because you’re not really convincing them of anything, they are doing that themselves. Of course in the modern day and age, such…

I agree, that would be a better way. This is more like fighting fire with fire.

Re: Neil Armstrong's reply to a Moon landing skeptic

#146
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a single example. The list of governmental frauds is as long as recorded history.

Sure, but in a democracy it’s very difficult to defraud the public, because the government employees doing the defrauding are the public. At any given time, large swathes of those employees are politically opposed to whoever is in power. That’s why the WMD fiasco is so instructional. It failed immediately, for precisely the reasons we would expect any such fraud against the population to fail, and for precisely the r…

> That’s why the WMD fiasco is so instructional. It failed immediately

Maybe we have a different understanding of "failed" or "immediately", but it worked well enough to get the media on board to build a case for war and carry it for long enough until the actual war started. It was solid enough that even all the doubt coming from NATO partners (and the flat out refusal to be part of it with Chirac's utterance that "France is not a pacifist country" and it's not about war itself but that war and those reasons in particular that they wouldn't be a part of it) did not stop the war. So, to me at least, it didn't fail at all, it succeeded.

Re: Neil Armstrong's reply to a Moon landing skeptic

#147
post #137
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read about homeopaths on arstechnica the other day and I have to say that it shock me. How did we ever get to a society where people are injecting mercury to fight diseases? The worst part about it is that some of these people are the same who fear vaccines. It just doesn’t make any sense. How do you even reason with those people? https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/homeopaths-sell-inje...

The evidence about vaccines causing harm is piling up. The question of whether there is a conspiracy at least motivated by greed is also piling up. I personally think there is a even higher conspiracy, one on a spiritual level that is also involved in orchestrating the overall deception and harm caused by vaccines but I have no solid evidence for that.

Yeah that was me. If I can get enough people to use them I will get enough spirit energy to be able to buy a magic sword off a ghost. Then with the sword I can fight the magic photocopier to get the pendant to open the door....

Re: Neil Armstrong's reply to a Moon landing skeptic

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you used this in real life, and how did it go?

I actually did. Not for the moon landing though. It basically frustrates the person to the point that they begin questioning their own conspiracy theory. Sometimes you need to hold a mirror in front of people to see themselves.

But from their point of view, were you totally serious, or was it obvious that you were just taking an absurd stance for the sake of an extreme counter-example, tongue in cheek?

Re: Neil Armstrong's reply to a Moon landing skeptic

#149
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that it’s the US government isn’t the important bit; Armstrong isn’t asking you to trust the government, and his entire argument is explicit, no reading between the lines required. What’s important is the “gigantic fraud involving 400,000 people” part -- clearly establishing that it would have had to be a pretty extreme effort. And rather than just saying “trust us”, he explicitly suggests asking people outs…

How many people work in the homeopathy industry? You can create that kind of group think were many do believe in what they are doing.

It all depends how much you dilute them in water i guess :p

Re: Neil Armstrong's reply to a Moon landing skeptic

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually did. Not for the moon landing though. It basically frustrates the person to the point that they begin questioning their own conspiracy theory. Sometimes you need to hold a mirror in front of people to see themselves.

But from their point of view, were you totally serious, or was it obvious that you were just taking an absurd stance for the sake of an extreme counter-example, tongue in cheek?

I had to sound serious. I argued the whole night that New York is not a real city, and is a fictional place created by Marvel, like Gotham is created by DC.

Nothing would convince me otherwise. Satellite images? Fake! Maps? Obviously fictional, like maps of middle earth. Videos? All filmed in Toronto!

Post reply on HN