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Pyrrhic Victory

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151–160 of 180 posts

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#151
post #3

Two parts of this short and powerful piece really leapt out at me: > all under the auspices of a hard line Republican administration > Washington under any administration will have no choice but to bail out all the state and local agencies and every insolvent pension scheme wholesale There are underlying problems being forced to the surface by COVID that go deeper than political parties. Somewhere between the 1970s a…

> The persistent bailouts are making losers of people who make good long term decisions. Sooner or later, nobody will be left who makes good long term decisions. Such people have been exorcised from the financial industry.

Could be used for the environment too. Unlike money, CO2 and temperature are real things, and rather than worrying about imaginary stuff like money, it would be prudent to be fiscally conservative regarding our carbon budget.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#152
post #90

It is interesting how different countries and cultures deal with the same challenge. Streets were pretty empty and shops were closed for maybe a month here in Germany. Now (almost) everything is open again, the streets are full. Unemployment rose somewhat but not catastrophically. The images and videos we get from the US feel apocalyptical in contrast.

You have to be careful with what you look at in the US. The media here is definitely cherry picking the worst of the worst to show people. Were some places hit really hard? Yes. Absolutely. Does the entire country look like NYC? No. Not even close.

There is a very clear division between people in my friend group who know someone who has died of Covid, and people who don't. The majority of the people from the former group live in NY, the majority of the people in the latter group don't.

NYC, due to its population density, certainly has a higher potential for pandemic death than anywhere else in the US, but there's good reason to believe that NY didn't reach anywhere near that potential, due to the interventions taken by the community which prevented that from happening. We see much worse infection and death rates in some areas of the world with less dense population, due to different responses. So there's no reason to believe that the rest of the US can't get just as bad as NYC, and worse. And given the almost complete lack of response in some parts of the US, I think we'll get to see what that looks like; if not in the next few weeks, then in the fall when cold weather hits.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#153
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to be careful with what you look at in the US. The media here is definitely cherry picking the worst of the worst to show people. Were some places hit really hard? Yes. Absolutely. Does the entire country look like NYC? No. Not even close.

Hey, even the outer boroughs seem more-or-less normal. It's just Manhattan that looks post-apocalyptic, and even there it depends greatly on the neighborhood.

I live 90 minutes outside Manhattan, upstate.

Things aren't normal here. I can definitely see how one might mistake things for being normal because businesses are opening up and people are going outside, but if you look more closely, about half of the shops and restaurants remain closed, and the places that are open are operating at half-capacity. If you talk to the business owners, things are rough. Some local businesses aren't staying open because they're making money, they're staying open because they lose less money by being open (which is a big difference). The hope is that they'll be able to start operating profitably again, but that's far from guaranteed.

I really doubt that we have insight yet into how this is going to play out.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#154
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It' not coherent because both printing money and borrowing cause the interest rate to increase. Low interest rates is a reaction from the market to the conditions the government puts on the table, not something that the government sets at will to push an agenda.

You must have not been paying attention to financial news over last decade. > When the Federal Open Market Committee wishes to reduce interest rates they will increase the supply of money by buying government securities. When additional supply is added and everything else remains constant, the price of borrowed funds – the federal funds rate – falls. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate#Explanation...

Yes. "When everything else remains constant" here means people choosing to take that extra money and immediately lending it to the government. It's not the government that makes this choice.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#155
Do we really need all these stores? They all sell useless crap no one needs, after it's been torn out of our beautiful habitat, causing immeasurable environmental, animal, and plant health damage, transported around from place to place dozens of times on diesel, only to be used once or twice and thrown away. I'm glad they are boarded up.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#156
post #150
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the long run, history clearly teaches that mixed economy work (e.g. a la Keynes) History teaches no such thing. History teaches that governments messing with the money supply, which is the centerpiece of Keynesian economics, leads to civilizational collapse. The Roman empire being a prime example. > centralized economies (e.g. a la Communist) don’t Government messing with the economy by manipulating the money su…

Err... Keynes « center piece » is not manipulation of money supply. This extreme monetarism you describe is... Friedman’s!!! And boy do I agree it does not work! Ultra liberal economics lead to accumulation of wealth by few super riches. This happens to be one of the reason the Roman Empire fell because all this money could not be spent on keeping the army in working conditions. Super riches of the time hoarded the n…

> Keynes « center piece » is not manipulation of money supply.

Yes, it is. Keynes said at one point that the government printing dollar bills and burying them for people to dig up would be a valid form of economic stimulus.

> This extreme monetarism you describe is... Friedman’s!!!

Milton Friedman did not advocate anything like the arbitrary manipulation of the money supply by the government that is practiced by the Federal Reserve. (He was in fact a consistent opponent of the Federal Reserve; he thought it should be abolished.) He advocated tying the growth rate of the money supply to the growth rate in real productivity, with no discretionary element at all.

> Ultra liberal economics lead to accumulation of wealth by few super riches

No, the government printing money and giving it to a few favored parties, which is exactly what the Federal Reserve does and always has done (the favored parties have almost always been financial institutions, no surprise given the background of most Fed members), leads to accumulation of wealth by a few super riches.

> This happens to be one of the reason the Roman Empire fell because all this money could not be spent on keeping the army in working conditions.

I don't know where you're getting your history from, but it's wrong. The reason the empire had trouble paying for a competent army was that it had debased the coinage so much that people were refusing to take Roman coins as payment. It even got so bad that the Roman government itself, knowing that its coins were worthless, stopped accepting them in payment of taxes and insisted on payment in kind instead.

The emperor Constantine managed to get hold of a large supply of gold bullion and used it to mint new gold coins, which were accepted in payment of taxes. That helped for a while as the empire could use these to pay the army and the civil servants; but many people could not afford to buy the new gold coins and therefore could not pay their taxes, so the improvement didn't last too long.

It also didn't help that the size of the army and civil service kept increasing, for no tangible reason, which just increased the tax burden.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The boarding up is because of the looting and rioting. Before that they were just closed as they would 'normally' close.

That was true in my neighborhood in Chicago but I’m not sure it was in San Francisco (where these pictures were taken). I remember seeing board ups there very early in the shutdown.

A lot of people anticipated civil unrest of some sort very early into the shutdown. The conditions were ripe for it; huge numbers of people losing their jobs and finding themselves socially isolated is a tinderbox just waiting for a spark.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#158

I'm in Austin TX, it looked empty like that a month ago. It was nice, not to have to sit around in traffic for once... OTOH, it took about a week before the roads/stores were full again. Around here there are plenty of closed businesses too, but the ones that are open seem about as busy (if not more) so than usual. While the idea of shutting everything down during a pandemic to keep from wiping out 50% of the populat…

> So, big waste, nothing gained, Are you asserting that case count in the US would be the exact same without Shelter in place?

We are "flattening the curve", which AFAIK isn't actually yet changing the area under the curve. About the only thing that is changing WRT medical treatment (AFAIK) seems to be putting fewer people on ventilators. Because it turns out its not a good idea to be putting people who are surviving on O2 on a ventilator just because their O2 saturation is a bit low. A change that would have happened naturally if we ran out of ventilators. There might also be some drug studies coming along that provide some better treatment guidelines as well, but those don't seem to be particularly positive either. So maybe in a year we will be able to decrease the mortality rate by 50%, but again, you have to slow it sufficiently to save those 50%.

So, yes we might be saving lives, but that is a small fraction of the total rates. Aka, we might be changing the death rate from 2% to 1.8%..

But, since we are mostly talking about the aged and infirm, its a herd culling. So you might be giving .2% another year or two to live until they die from other causes.

Which is why, there is a persistent bit of pessimism being heard from certain parts of the research community warning that this might be more like the flu than we are willing to admit. AKA, its possibly going to be with us for a long time. We have spent the last 100 years working on flu vaccines and treatments and lowered the fatality rate by maybe 90%. That 60k deaths a year in the US are with large parts of the population being vaccinated, and piles of treatment options.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#159
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same for the UK. Nothing is boarded up here. I read the article thinking "How to I invest in American plywood manufacturers if there's a second wave?"

Assuming there are any domestic manufacturers of plywood left. According to this first-hit google result, in 2017 82% of world plywood production was in Asia https://www.wbpionline.com/features/global-plywood-industry-...

This is extremely out of touch with the state of industry. US produces 10 times as much plywood as it imports. This should be apparent to anyone who's ever actually bought plywood: if you go to your local Home Depot, you'll see the manufacturer information stamped on the edge of the stack. It's almost always US company.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#160
post #78
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Softbank were willing to try this insane strategy because they know as well as everyone else that anything exposed to the stock market is being buoyed up by high debt levels. Uber IPO-ed. People are valuing it with a large positive value. If you entertain the idea that a big bubble (3-5 years long) could ever happen, Uber being allowed to continue operations is an eyebrow raiser. There are risks that much of the…

> Look at the amount of construction that is going on in China. That is what is physically possible. That sort of activity could be usefully replicated in the West. OK: how? The private sector isn't going to be doing it because it's not profitable enough. The public sector won't do it because people complain about the public debt.

> The public sector won't do it because people complain about the public debt.

This isn't true, though. The US consistently elects republican administrations that jack up deficits to cover tax cuts for billionaires and nobody bats an eye. The military can blow 700bn a year with barely a peep of outrage. And unlike with infrastructure investment that money is effectively a 700bn jobs program for 3 million people that produce nothing of value.

Complaining about debt is usually a cover for bigotry. People don't want social equity or fairness because leveling the playing field is deconstructing hierarchies people were born into and base their personality on. Its why attacking institutional racism in the police is taken as an attack on the culture, personhood, and lifestyles of cops and white suburbia.

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