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Pyrrhic Victory

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Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#71

Post by MichaelMcG »

chadash wrote: post #42
pjc50 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> running up debt literally does not matter. The creditors don't seem to mind it either, happily buying hundred-year bonds with near-zero interest rates. Also remember that every "saving" is also a "debt" on the other side of somebody's ledger. Quite a lot of that corporate and government debt is "savings"; $270 billion of it is owed to Apple alone. http://thewire.fiig.com.au/article/2018/04/24/how-apple-inve... > Th…

> How, exactly? What "long term decisions" would not have been worse off if the 2008 bailouts hadn't been made and a large chunk of Western retail banking had gone insolvent, tying up accounts until it could have been resolved? There is an important difference between "this business is no longer viable", and "this business is perfectly viable in the future but is experiencing a temporary shock which its cashflow and…

> This is essentially what’s happening to Warren Buffett right now who has a war chest is billions of dollars saved up during the good times that he’s ready to invest now. But it’s not as viable a strategy because the government props everyone up.

In all fairness, Berkshire Hathaway stepped in to bailout Bank of America. It obviously paid out handsomely for Buffett and Co. long term, just find it interesting to use as an example.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#72

Post by ericol »

(Chrome) crtl+shift+i 
    jQuery('img[data-attachment-id]').each((i, e) => jQuery(e).remove())
Then enter. Voilà, al images (A lot) are gone.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#73

Post by schnable »

orbifold wrote: post #33

It is interesting how different countries and cultures deal with the same challenge. Streets were pretty empty and shops were closed for maybe a month here in Germany. Now (almost) everything is open again, the streets are full. Unemployment rose somewhat but not catastrophically. The images and videos we get from the US feel apocalyptical in contrast.

The pictures look much more apocalyptical than they otherwise might because many of the storefronts are boarded up to prevent looting.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#74

Post by schnable »

polycaster wrote: post #68

This thing with nailing boards to the office front is alienating me. What's underlying this strange behavior? Is the general expectation of damage being done to uninhibited buildings really reasonable?

To prevent looting from the recent civil unrest.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#75

Post by StillBored »

chewz wrote: post #48
pjc50 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> running up debt literally does not matter. The creditors don't seem to mind it either, happily buying hundred-year bonds with near-zero interest rates. Also remember that every "saving" is also a "debt" on the other side of somebody's ledger. Quite a lot of that corporate and government debt is "savings"; $270 billion of it is owed to Apple alone. http://thewire.fiig.com.au/article/2018/04/24/how-apple-inve... > Th…

>> The persistent bailouts are making losers of people who make good long term decisions > How, exactly? Keeping interest rates very low is hurting people who are saving money. Not just in banks also via pension funds[-], retirement schemese, life insurance. It pushes savers into taking risky bets with real estates or stocks or even direct consumption (spending money instead of saving them is very risky bet on the fu…

You forgot inflationary pressure from all the "free" money. That is what really upset me the most about the 2008/etc situation. I was looking to buy a house, and you would have never known there was a housing crisis where I lived (Austin).

The banks were more than willing to sit on assets than actually sell foreclosed properties at market values. So while the housing prices went down slightly, your talking maybe a 10% after a decade of 10% a year increases. The "dip" didn't even last 2 years.

I myself made an offer on a forclosed/vacant house, and the bank counter offered above the listing price.

I had friends who tried to buy already forclosed houses and literally sat around for a year+ waiting for the banks to accept their offers. Eventually like me, actually buying other properties.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#76

Post by dx87 »

polycaster wrote: post #68

This thing with nailing boards to the office front is alienating me. What's underlying this strange behavior? Is the general expectation of damage being done to uninhibited buildings really reasonable?

In cities, it seems reasonable. Bored kids with no supervision will go around breaking things for fun, especially if they think it's unoccupied and nobody will care.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#77

Post by [deleted] »

polycaster wrote: post #68

This thing with nailing boards to the office front is alienating me. What's underlying this strange behavior? Is the general expectation of damage being done to uninhibited buildings really reasonable?

[deleted]

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#78

Post by pjc50 »

roenxi wrote: post #50
pjc50 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Large amounts of debt is an obvious answer to 'where did the money to fuel this bonfire ultimately come from' Uber appear to have $7.6bn debt, reading off the balance sheet. Quite a lot for a company which shouldn't need much to cover operating cashflow. But who are the investors? It's bloody Softbank again. > The saver loses out more, because they could have been living it up with more resources, rather than direc…

And Softbank were willing to try this insane strategy because they know as well as everyone else that anything exposed to the stock market is being buoyed up by high debt levels. Uber IPO-ed. People are valuing it with a large positive value. If you entertain the idea that a big bubble (3-5 years long) could ever happen, Uber being allowed to continue operations is an eyebrow raiser. There are risks that much of the…

> Look at the amount of construction that is going on in China. That is what is physically possible. That sort of activity could be usefully replicated in the West.

OK: how?

The private sector isn't going to be doing it because it's not profitable enough. The public sector won't do it because people complain about the public debt.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#79

Post by marcosdumay »

chewz wrote: post #48
pjc50 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> running up debt literally does not matter. The creditors don't seem to mind it either, happily buying hundred-year bonds with near-zero interest rates. Also remember that every "saving" is also a "debt" on the other side of somebody's ledger. Quite a lot of that corporate and government debt is "savings"; $270 billion of it is owed to Apple alone. http://thewire.fiig.com.au/article/2018/04/24/how-apple-inve... > Th…

>> The persistent bailouts are making losers of people who make good long term decisions > How, exactly? Keeping interest rates very low is hurting people who are saving money. Not just in banks also via pension funds[-], retirement schemese, life insurance. It pushes savers into taking risky bets with real estates or stocks or even direct consumption (spending money instead of saving them is very risky bet on the fu…

You know, the GGP is complaining about high government debt levels; you are complaining about low interest levels. That's not coherent.

I do agree that something is broken, but "debt is too high and interest is too low" is a bad problem statement.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#80

Post by chewz »

StillBored wrote: post #75
chewz wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> The persistent bailouts are making losers of people who make good long term decisions > How, exactly? Keeping interest rates very low is hurting people who are saving money. Not just in banks also via pension funds[-], retirement schemese, life insurance. It pushes savers into taking risky bets with real estates or stocks or even direct consumption (spending money instead of saving them is very risky bet on the fu…

You forgot inflationary pressure from all the "free" money. That is what really upset me the most about the 2008/etc situation. I was looking to buy a house, and you would have never known there was a housing crisis where I lived (Austin). The banks were more than willing to sit on assets than actually sell foreclosed properties at market values. So while the housing prices went down slightly, your talking maybe a 10…

I did mention pushing savers into real estate and other assets. Lots of people are flipping houses simply because thay cannot get decent returns on bank savings anymore.

Same goes for professional money managers of all kinds who simply cannot provide decent returns to their customers by buying bonds like old school. So they are forced to chase yields in other risky assets.

Also with bank savings everyone has an equal chance. With risky assets - richer people are priviledged with better access to higher returns (via better access to information, scale of investment, credit etc.). So disparities grow.

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