Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds • Hacker News Board

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#51

Post by game_the0ry » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 5:30 PM UTC

fxtentacle wrote: post #44

voisin wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fellow millennial at apparently the same age. I agree with your sentiment. I remind myself that what goes around comes around. Boomers and GenXers bid housing prices up to absurd levels and stayed working longer than past generations (mainly because they failed to save when they could have and have to service debt that is unheard of in past generations). Eventually these assets will be poured back into the market and…

Sadly, the owning class could just transfer their housing assets into a corporation which will rent it out in perpetuity and pay the profits to their heirs. As such, there's no guarantee that the housing market recovers when the current house owners die.

Partially true.

This did happen more or less during the great recession - private equity companies (ie colony capital, blackstone, etc) raised specific funds and created corps to buy foreclosed housing and rented them out.

However, typically they will want to realize a liquidity event (sale) which is why sometimes those homes were rent-to-own. Since the market picked back (thanks to the fed for buying trillions in mortgage backed securities), they were able to sell in a good market. So usually want to sell your investment at some point to realize some capital gains, not hold forever.

Two opposing forces (outside of supply / demand) will drive pricing:

> how much the fed buys in mortgage backed securities

> the economy being strong enough to raise real wages of home buyers so they can buy expensive homes

Given that the fed bought assets so aggressively in such a short period of time (raising its balance sheet from ~$4.5T to $7T in H1 of 2020) in response to covid [1], my bet is that housing prices will not come down as long as the fed is run by boomers (they can't afford to have their net worth go down bc they are also economically fragile).

[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#52

Post by sukilot » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 5:31 PM UTC

voisin wrote: post #27

netsectoday wrote: post #7

Reading this article as a millennial really hits home as I remember entering the workforce as a teenager mid 2001 as soon as I could drive (months before 9/11), re-entering the workforce as a young adult early 2008 as soon as I had a degree (months before the great recession), then building a company as an adult for two years and launching it January 2020 (months before the end of the world). There have been no break…

Fellow millennial at apparently the same age. I agree with your sentiment. I remind myself that what goes around comes around. Boomers and GenXers bid housing prices up to absurd levels and stayed working longer than past generations (mainly because they failed to save when they could have and have to service debt that is unheard of in past generations). Eventually these assets will be poured back into the market and…

Recent History lesson: Gen X had the same concerns that Millennials had. No one in Gen X is at "normal" retirement age.

The people bidding up housing are millenial techies.

Mark "young people are just smarter" Zuckerberg is a millennial.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#53

Post by sologoub » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 5:31 PM UTC

netsectoday wrote: post #7

Reading this article as a millennial really hits home as I remember entering the workforce as a teenager mid 2001 as soon as I could drive (months before 9/11), re-entering the workforce as a young adult early 2008 as soon as I had a degree (months before the great recession), then building a company as an adult for two years and launching it January 2020 (months before the end of the world). There have been no break…

Look at it another way - you are building a company and actually launched! Most people will never get there.

You have a house, while in the past it was easier, overall home ownership is something only 32% of our age group accomplished. 65% of all US residents will ever accomplish.

More importantly - you have a family! So far, I’d say you are doing great!

Can it be easier? Sure. However, while my own path hasn’t been rosy, I wouldn’t trade it - it makes us who we are and will make us more resilient in the future. Keep up the good work and never despair!

Also, another perspective on the growth. If your starting point is lower, it’s easier to grow by a larger percentage point. US in the 1980s was a pretty great place to live and consumption was already high. It’s that much harder to beat that (or even maintain).

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#54

Post by msamwald » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 5:39 PM UTC

api wrote: post #19

I am so nostalgic for the 1990s. I am a young Xer, almost an old millennial, kind of on the cusp. I've wondered if this is a cognitive artifact of my age in the 90s, teens to 20, but I have asked older and even a few younger people and many have also expressed nostalgia for that decade. Boomers and much older Xers often agree. My teens were rough anyway. It was not my personal best decade, but I would go back in a se…

I am an 'old millenial' and have absolutely the same impression (and my personal life at that time was also a mixed bag, so it certainly is not personal nostalgia).

The time period of mid 90s until 9/11 should really receive far more attention. It feels like most of the world was on a much more optimistic and promising trajectory.

I think it was also the last time that we saw major, society-wide and significant technological progress happen in a short amount of time in developed countries: the early days of widespread adoption of the web and all of its implications.

At the same time, I sometimes wonder if many of the negative developments of the two decades afterwards might also be ascribed to the spreading adoption of the web and its unintended negative consequences to global sensemaking.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#55

Post by game_the0ry » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 5:41 PM UTC

rdiddly wrote: post #29

I graduated into the early 90s recession. It shaped my outlook in various ways. Took about 10 years to finally get into a respectable job, and then 9/11 killed that. Another half-decade of underperformance, another tenuous success, then 2008 killed that. Another 10 years to finally get out of debt and start to get a foothold, and now this. Still don't own a home, although that's partly by choice. So I sympathize on t…

True - timing is more relevant than when you were born.

The more relevant discussion is wealth inequality in general across generations. Plenty of broke boomers too.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#56

Post by sukilot » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 5:44 PM UTC

This thread has quite a few people looking into rose tinted mirrors and forgetting that the US Civil Rights Movement and the Vietnam War and oil crisis and the computer/internet (!) revolution happened.

All the people saying riffs of "OK, Boomer" should go visit BLM protest and ask people there how envious they are of their grandparents.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#57

Post by msamwald » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 5:45 PM UTC

game_the0ry wrote: post #37

api wrote: post #19

I am so nostalgic for the 1990s. I am a young Xer, almost an old millennial, kind of on the cusp. I've wondered if this is a cognitive artifact of my age in the 90s, teens to 20, but I have asked older and even a few younger people and many have also expressed nostalgia for that decade. Boomers and much older Xers often agree. My teens were rough anyway. It was not my personal best decade, but I would go back in a se…

Re: 9/11 You and I are in agreement - that day set the tone for America's future in: * economics - on his way back to the fed reserve in NYC via helicopter in autumn 2001, Greenspan saw the rubble of WTC and decided to drop the fed funds rate, and it eventually hit 1% in 2004, which is why asset prices (real estate, stocks, bonds) are so high today and why we had a housing boom during that time (2004-2008) * internat…

Non-American here. I think 9/11 has global significance that goes beyond its impact on the US. It destroyed the narrative that liberal democracy, free markets and technology had removed all obstacles that would keep us from converging towards a peaceful, secular and progressive global society.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#58

Post by qqqwerty » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 5:49 PM UTC

elhudy wrote: post #2

I question whether these generational comparisons are using the right statistics. In the very least they don't seem to paint a complete picture. Maybe I am biased because I'm a very successful millennial. I have the world at my hands. Access to written knowledge from any point in the history of time. Tens of thousands of video games and movies available for under $10 and/or a small subscription price. I can learn the…

This is a fairly narrow view of the issue. For one, I think most people throughout history would refuse to trade places with previous generations, with maybe the main exception being those that were significantly impacted by war. And secondly, the article is focused on economic prospects of our generation, many of the ramifications of which will not play out for decades. Millennials are still relatively young. Being poor in your 20s is a lot different than being poor in your 60s.

A few other things to consider. The TP delivered to your house was done so by someone working a low paying gig work job. There is a good chance, that like you, they graduated with significant student load debt. How do you think they feel about their economic future? And in 30 years, what is social security and medicare going to look like? We are racking up major deficits to deal with the impact covid-19. Climate change is going to be an issue in our lifetime, and I strongly believe that if our generation does not tackle this issue, that it will significantly alter the course of humanity. And to add to all of this, we are already shifting towards populism in our politics. If that shift continues due to economic issues of subsequent generations, things will get weird.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#59

Post by cko » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 5:53 PM UTC

netsectoday wrote: post #7

Reading this article as a millennial really hits home as I remember entering the workforce as a teenager mid 2001 as soon as I could drive (months before 9/11), re-entering the workforce as a young adult early 2008 as soon as I had a degree (months before the great recession), then building a company as an adult for two years and launching it January 2020 (months before the end of the world). There have been no break…

Fellow millennial here. If you put it that way, it does seem we got the short end of the stick.

But doesn't every generation have a once every decade recession?

Though ours is accompanied by two major expenses (housing education) rising way faster than inflation.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#60

Post by qqqwerty » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:06 PM UTC

elhudy wrote: post #5

ratbert wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are biased due to that. There aren't that many high-paying jobs in the economy overall. Home ownership was usually the only tangible payoff for ordinary people. https://danielmiessler.com/projects/reading/summary-the-war-...

Sure, but my high salary doesn't enable any of the things I mentioned. I'm still capable of making observations about the world around me; my friends, family, who have low salaries have access to these things and are seemingly able to achieve happiness through them. I am NOT saying the article is wrong by any means, only that there are other considerations as well, which are always ignored in generational comparisons…

I think you have a strong disconnect with how impactful your high salary is on your quality of life. If someone has significant student loans and is driving for uber to make a living, I highly doubt they are traveling and staying in cheap hostels. And I highly doubt they have the time to indulge in the arts, work on hobbies, or teach themselves how to code because they are working 60+ hours a week to make ends meet.

And less extreme. I know plenty of professionals in the bay area who aren't in tech, making decent, but not great, salaries + benefits. For most of these folks, every expense needs to be scrutinized and home ownership is a pipe dream.