More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May • Hacker News Board

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#151

Post by ojnabieoot » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 10:30 PM UTC

uoaei wrote: post #135

ojnabieoot wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why? Because people have stopped doing things > We've built an entire economy around people doing things they don't really need to do. Even hunter-gatherers spend a great deal of hard-earned resources on things "they don't need to do," such as art, music, parties, luxury foods and jewelry, and so on. This is human nature. It has nothing to do with how the economy is structured. The stuff we're not doing that "we do…

I think you missed the point. If I understood GP correctly, the "things they don't really need to do" are the modern-day pencil pushers and middlemen who exist in industries that are basically modernized rent-seeking. Health insurance is an obvious example but we can also take it to the extreme and point out that there are sometimes (not often) 3 people at some grocery checkout counters: the cashier, the bagger, and…

Although I agree with the rent-seeker problem I really don’t think that’s what he was saying - for starters, the pencil pushers are much more likely to be at work (from home) than the food/entertainment/etc people I mentioned, and much more likely to keep their jobs during the pandemic. If your argument is what OP meant then I was giving them too much credit.

> The latter two aren't really necessary, but we gave them jobs because it looks good when you report the quarterly unemployment stats.

I don’t even know where to start with this. Clearly you have never worked in a grocery store. Beyond that - why would private businesses agree to hire unnecessary workers to juke unemployment stats? This entire argument makes zero sense.

It seems like you have some strong views about the economy but they are disconnected from the facts.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#152

Post by prewett » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 10:32 PM UTC

satvikpendem wrote: post #111

serf wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Given the harsh economic reality, I'm very bearish right now. as am I. I've more-or-less frozen my trading until a) a recovery plan is clear and being executed or b) until it is more clear we've hit a real bottom. All these hopeful spikes that do not correlate to the economic reality are probably going to throw a lot of people through hoops until any real roof or floor is hit. It sucks because I keep having these "b…

Time in the market beats timing the market. If you continue to invest regularly even in a down market you will eventually make more than those who target peaks and dips.

> Time in the market beats timing the market.

This has merits in a bull market regime. However, we may not in a bull market: history suggests that we will have a deeper bottom within 3 - 12 months. So if you buy stock now, when the market is within 10% of it's peak, and you have to wait for two years for the market to recover to that peak, there's plenty of time for someone to wait for the trough and substantially outperform you. Hopefully you are at least collecting dividends, but 2% is a small solace for spending 30% more than you would need if you were patient for a few months.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#153

Post by vkou » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 10:38 PM UTC

closeparen wrote: post #96

ikeyany wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> fragile ... the word is fragile. We've built an insanely fragile economy. Take a look. There's been no war. 100% of the (not so great) US infrastructure that was there before SARS-COV-2 is still there. We've lost about 100k people, which is horrific but in the scheme of things at "USA" scale, and with the skewed demographics, not much of a hit to the economy. And yet the economy is staggering and it's likely to get…

Fragile compared to what? Which economies can comfortably absorb the indefinite suspension of nearly all activity?

I'm not sure what country you live in, but here in the US, the overwhelming majority of activity was not suspended.

My city has been in lockdown for two months, yet I look out my window, and see a full freeway of people going to work, going from work, transporting goods, transporting themselves...

Look through the list of essential activities in your local shutdown orders. By the time you get through all the pages of it, you'll be wondering what the hell is left that's non-essential.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#154

Post by nine_zeros » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 10:38 PM UTC

BenoitEssiambre wrote: post #149

nine_zeros wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2. Currency depreciation. This is likely going to be the outcome. All the savers will ultimately be shafted, as was done in times we moved off of gold standard. The real cost of living will just keep rising as many jobs just won't come back despite this printing of money.

Just don't keep all your savings in government paper and you'll be fine.

Yes. Take risks for the rest of your life and live through ups and downs, and you'll be fine.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#155

Post by uoaei » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 10:38 PM UTC

ojnabieoot wrote: post #151

uoaei wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you missed the point. If I understood GP correctly, the "things they don't really need to do" are the modern-day pencil pushers and middlemen who exist in industries that are basically modernized rent-seeking. Health insurance is an obvious example but we can also take it to the extreme and point out that there are sometimes (not often) 3 people at some grocery checkout counters: the cashier, the bagger, and…

Although I agree with the rent-seeker problem I really don’t think that’s what he was saying - for starters, the pencil pushers are much more likely to be at work (from home) than the food/entertainment/etc people I mentioned, and much more likely to keep their jobs during the pandemic. If your argument is what OP meant then I was giving them too much credit. > The latter two aren't really necessary, but we gave them…

Have you ever been in a grocery store outside the US? Am I really the one disconnected?

The grocery stores obviously don't care about unemployment stats, but federal government incentivizing "job creation" without getting into specifics about the utility, necessity, etc. of those jobs is a real problem. Everyone who drives for Uber has a "job" but that is hardly anything to survive on.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#156

Post by diogenescynic » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 10:38 PM UTC

uoaei wrote: post #65

ohyes wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an interesting analogy because the roadrunner just runs without looking and everything works out fine. Wile E. Coyote only has problems because he is aware of what a huge mistake he’s made. I don’t know what the behavior analogous to road runner is in an economic sense. Perhaps suspending capitalism? I can’t imagine anyone going along with that.

The parallel here, to me, is that the stock market is solely based on investors' perceptions of reality, not reality itself. As soon as investors realize that their investments are untenable, they will pull out, triggering an accelerating freefall until we hit terminal velocity. The economy is unhealthy but people can be convinced to ignore that because it's not easy to see the holistic conditions of the US economy o…

The stock market is a game of expectations and essentially is a graph of how rich people feel about the economy.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#157

Post by toast0 » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 10:41 PM UTC

airza wrote: post #82

sokoloff wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who would rather buy houses than rent should feel free to do so. No landlord is forcing someone to rent their property. It is often the case that renting is quite a bit cheaper and always the case that it's more flexible to do so, which is why a lot of people choose to rent instead of buying. Society benefits when people who wish to rent housing have housing available for lease.

It's certainly more feasible to rent if you don't have the money to buy a house, which is why every single renter i know is doing do. I'm just not sure why this is necessary or a valuable economic innovation that justifies the rent paid.

Rentals are a useful innovation because the transaction is beneficial for both parties.

The leasor turns their large investment into a stream of payments, and the leasee turns their stream of payments into use of a large investment without having to make such an investment and without needing to have the capability to make that investment.

Avoiding making a large investment in property makes it easier for the leasee to move if needed, since there aren't significant costs to unwind a lease like there are to unwinding property ownership.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#158

Post by chkaloon » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 10:43 PM UTC

postingawayonhn wrote: post #137

chkaloon wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding #2, or rather inflation, is it a hidden way to transfer wealth from one generation to the next? Older savers see their wealth dissolve away due to inflation, while the younger generations are held somewhat stable by rising wages. It's unfortunate, but probably the least painful way out of this.

Assets prices are inflating more than anything else. If your savings are in stocks or possibly property you're likely doing quite well.

Right now, sure. But I think we're talking longer term. We've been in an asset/debt bubble for quite a while. Some would argue decades. Inflation may be the least painful way out.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#159

Post by DanBC » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 10:50 PM UTC

5ociety wrote: post #103

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't have to be doing a perfect job for you to be able to do a worse one...

Pretty sure I could do better. Downvote me again. You're making a difference!

People cannot downvote comments that are replies to their own comments, so any downvotes are not coming from AnimalMuppet.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#160

Post by agilebyte » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 10:55 PM UTC

prewett wrote: post #152

satvikpendem wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time in the market beats timing the market. If you continue to invest regularly even in a down market you will eventually make more than those who target peaks and dips.

> Time in the market beats timing the market. This has merits in a bull market regime. However, we may not in a bull market: history suggests that we will have a deeper bottom within 3 - 12 months. So if you buy stock now, when the market is within 10% of it's peak, and you have to wait for two years for the market to recover to that peak, there's plenty of time for someone to wait for the trough and substantially ou…

Time in the market applies to all the market, there's no qualifier for just a bull market - that would be timing the market. Vast majority of people cannot time the market.

Bear Markets: This Time is Different (Every Time) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jh9Gn58r9Fw