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Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

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Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#401
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if they can't pay the hundred bucks the government won't I sure don't care I used to have this same mentality. Until the person who was renting one of my properties decided to lie about certain issues (like claiming a shampoo bottle lodged down one of the toilets was there for years). When I decided to not renew the lease with that tenant, they decided to cause considerable damage to our property. Sometimes, when t…

Anyone who thinks anything comes easy because you're poor hasn't been poor except in the poor college student "working" their way through the college daddy is paying for type of poor. Your experience points to the human race sucking not poor people.

There is a significant difference in incentives, though. How many well-to-do people get evicted? Not a lot. And if they do, they can probably afford a higher deposit on their next apartment to offset the perceived risk. And they probably have the money to pay market rate, or above market rate, to get somewhere to live. And even if they can't find something fast, they can probably afford to get a hotel or an AirBnB for a little while so they have somewhere to sleep at night. They will likely keep their job through an eviction to maintain a stable employment record.

People living in poverty don't have those luxuries. Their chances of having an eviction record are higher. Their ability to pay a higher deposit are drastically lower, since just staying alive consumes basically all of their paycheck. The chances of them being able to pay above market rates are basically nil; their chances of being able to pay market rates are not great. If they get evicted, there is a significant chance they end up homeless. There is a significant chance their new circumstances will result in them losing their job as they struggle to find somewhere to live, because priority 1 is not sleeping in a shelter (which I absolutely understand). To add on to that, they might have children who also follow them into their new circumstances. 28.9% of children below 50% of the federal poverty line experience an eviction before they turn 15, and 25.6% of children between 50% and 100% of the federal poverty line experience an eviction before they turn 15.

All of which is to say, the possibility of eviction is far more threatening to people living in poverty. Their lives are not cushy even when they have stable housing. I can absolutely understand that losing their housing could be the straw that broke the camel's back, and they lash out irrationally. I don't think they suck. In fact, they're probably stronger than I am, I don't think I could endure the things they deal with on a daily basis. But I also don't discount the possibility that they react more vehemently to losing their housing than someone who has less to lose.

This is a situation where I think the private sector does a poor job of handling the situation. In a market where there is perpetually more demand than supply (who has a housing glut, other than Detroit?), there is always going to be some bottom percent of less profitable potential buyers who get screwed. For non-necessary goods, this is fine, but not for housing. I don't think any first world countries should have citizens that have persistent worries about how long they will have a roof over their heads.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#402
post #60
post #23

I know people who are skipping payments just to be in solidarity with people who can't pay. They see it as an act of protest not only of inequality generally but of the fact that no matter what happens the financial industry will get a limitless bailout at the expense of everything else. Not paying is a way of getting a piece of that bailout. I agree with the latter point. We've seen in the past 10 years or so that t…

> I know people who are skipping payments just to be in solidarity with people who can't pay. So they're donating what would have been spent on rent to an appropriate cause? Surely they're not keeping the money if it's just that. /s

Yeah they're donating the money to their self-in-3-months, who has even less than they do now, with no job and no prospects and no bailout on its way.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#403

If there is no spike in infections within two weeks, from areas which had large public protests in the past week, can millions of Americans be helped by restarting the economy?

Type of activity seems to matter a lot. Protesting in a park with quite a bit of space, where people are mostly wearing masks, is a different thing than sitting in a bar having a beer.

Depends on the density at the park though... I was a bit surprised at the photos from the Boston protests [1].

[1]: https://kubrick.htvapps.com/htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/...

[2]: https://boston.cbslocal.com/2020/06/02/george-floyd-protests...

[3]: https://www.wcvb.com/article/new-group-of-watchdogs-begins-i...

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're very lucky. Rented to a single mother with two teenage sons. The teenage sons that decided to strip down living trees of their branches, to make bonfires for parties in the backyard. Two trees are severely damaged, and anything that was burnable in the landscape is burnt. I don't even know how to go about pricing out the damage. Insurance is paying for their rent, because the last house they lived in burned do…

I'm not a lawyer but reddit's r/legaladvice seems to enjoy referring to people to tree lawyers. From what I gather there's a lot of money involved in tree laws. And if you've got picture evidence that's especially loved by lawyers.

It’s the opposite. Tree Law!!!! is about people melting down over stuff a real lawyer wouldn’t even take a phone call about. That’s why they are on Reddit melting down about it.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#405
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I see comments like this, and no direct offense intended, It always strikes me as coming from somebody who has never filed large insurance claims before. Been seeing this so much with riots lately, "oh you have insurance right, why you mad about your business getting destroyed?". If only it was that simple.

The largest insurance claim I've had was for a little over $5k for a vehicle repair after collision while avoiding a pedestrian in the street. I'm not sure if you think that's "large" but it was very painless to do IMO.

That’s missing 5 or 6 zeros in order to be considered large.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After my father died, my mother rented out the lower floor of her home. I think your definition of desperate is unfair it it includes only tenants. Not all "landlords" are taking on the headache of renting out units because they are professional landlords -- many are similarly disparate, have mortgage payments, property tax, repairs, utilities, etc. I'd be in more favor of rent control if it would also freeze propert…

Yeah, lots of the problems with rent control are related to it being an unfair disadvantage to some (usually not all) landlords and they have expenses as well. But again: the reason rent control is passed is because enough people with significant political leverage were hurting. We need to be able to show them a better alternative if we don't want the pain of rent control's (un?)intended consequences to linger.

The alternative is allowing more housing development.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#407
post #68

I'm so extremely grateful that I accepted section 8 tenants into my rental units. Most of these tenants have nearly all of their payment covered by the government and they just have to pay $100 or $200 on top of that to cover what the government won't. These tenants are often not accepted by landlords because they're thought to cause more issues. Mine are great. They keep the units spotless, mow the lawn for me on my…

> if they can't pay the hundred bucks the government won't I sure don't care I used to have this same mentality. Until the person who was renting one of my properties decided to lie about certain issues (like claiming a shampoo bottle lodged down one of the toilets was there for years). When I decided to not renew the lease with that tenant, they decided to cause considerable damage to our property. Sometimes, when t…

What the probability is of something like this happening with a random tenant vs a subsidized tenet?

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#408

A wave of more layoffs will happen as soon as the Paycheck Protection quiet period ends. After June 30, companies that took PPP money are free to fire people without repercussion.

I like to remind people that in 2008, Bear Stearns fell in March. Most of the the economy didn't realize the financial system problems until late August. I'm waiting for a very large shoe to drop in a few months. How big will depend on whether consumers feel comfortable about their jobs+health.

Titanic Syndrome. Everything's going under, but the people on the upper decks are still enjoying their late-night cigars while the boiler crew is drowning. It's an interesting phenomenon (and, I'm sure, has a better name than the one I just made up).

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#409
post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you define what you mean by saying other countries squashed the thing? They may have flattened the curve, drove numbers down, etc. but until they get either a herd immunity or a wide vaccination the infections will likely flare up again as soon as travel restrictions get lifted.

Some countries aren’t planning on lifting travel restrictions, or are planning on having mandatory quarantine for arrivals

Not lifting travel restrictions is not realistic unless you are talking about North Korea. If you do not lift restrictions you are also punishing your own citizens (if you let your own citizens travel they can bring back the gift that keeps giving). We will see. And quarantine where? In many countries for returning citizens it just means "please go home and try to avoid contacts for 2 weeks", which is not super effective and gets treated creatively a lot.

I see friends (US and 2 countries in Europe) who are not affected by job losses booking vacations like crazy to take advantage of low prices to visit places they always wanted. So I suspect there will be a lot of travel again in the near future.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#410
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My simplified understanding is that this is what REITs are for. They're an investment vehicle for companies looking to build real estate they don't have the capital for. They raise through a REIT and you wind up with a dividend of some kind out of what they make from tenants. It minimizes the risk for a general investor. Disclaimer: I know very little about them, this is not a recommendation I probably have some deta…

My understanding is that the appeal of owning real estate yourself is housing mortgages gives you: (1) the cheapest leverage available to retail investors and (2) a loan that can't be margin-called. In an upmarket, this leverage lets you juice your returns. Say you only have $200,000. Then by getting a mortgage of $800,000 you get ownership of a house worth $1M. This gives you the right to the cashflow from renting t…

Ah okay very interesting, so I guess it would be fairer to say the REIT would be used in the case you were a less a real estate savvy investor perse and more someone who was looking to diversify I guess what I would call a layman's portfolio such as me.

Thanks for the info!

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