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Idea Generation

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: Idea Generation

#61

Post by vas123 »

godot wrote: post #24

> (By the way, it’s useful to get good at differentiating between real trends and fake trends. A key differentiator is if the new platform is used a lot by a small number of people, or used a little by a lot of people.) As a one-time founder, I feel embarrassed to have to ask this; but in the spirit of no-stupid-question and also that there's gotta be someone else wondering the same -- which one is the real trend and…

The quote from the mom test comes to mind; “before we can serve everyone, we have to serve someone”

Re: Idea Generation

#62

Post by dilandau »

Utterly banal gibberish that might have excited the imaginations of money-hungry Stanford grads 15 years ago, but this type of fluff has not aged well.

Re: Idea Generation

#63

Post by azinman2 »

npalli wrote: post #31
godot wrote: post #24

> (By the way, it’s useful to get good at differentiating between real trends and fake trends. A key differentiator is if the new platform is used a lot by a small number of people, or used a little by a lot of people.) As a one-time founder, I feel embarrassed to have to ask this; but in the spirit of no-stupid-question and also that there's gotta be someone else wondering the same -- which one is the real trend and…

new platform "used by a lot of small number of people" is usually the real trend. As new platforms are quirky and buggy only people who use it a lot can power though all the issues and guide you to a product that works for a large market. They also have enough emotional connection that they can evangelize your product to the wider market. The "used a little by a lot" people don't have the attachment or deep need to w…

What doesn't make sense to me about that is that the web & email starting out as 'used a little by a lot'. Over time, these not only became better (many innovations for web, mobile access for email), but also ingrained in our life and society. That then paved way for things like social networks that eventually became standard communications. I believe most major communications products seemed to have followed that trend.

Re: Idea Generation

#64

Post by azinman2 »

s_r_n wrote: post #56
godot wrote: post #24

> (By the way, it’s useful to get good at differentiating between real trends and fake trends. A key differentiator is if the new platform is used a lot by a small number of people, or used a little by a lot of people.) As a one-time founder, I feel embarrassed to have to ask this; but in the spirit of no-stupid-question and also that there's gotta be someone else wondering the same -- which one is the real trend and…

Dapps haven't gone away. I'd say that trend has evolved into DeFi, which seems to be growing quickly.

Genuine question: what apps/technology is growing quickly with DeFi that can't otherwise be practically executed (for whatever reason) outside of a blockchain? I've yet to see a killer example.

Re: Idea Generation

#65

Post by amiune »

> Finally, a good test for an idea is if you can articulate why most people think it’s a bad idea, but you understand what makes it good.

It seems that all reduces to find if you have some information asymmetry to take advantage of

Re: Idea Generation

#66

Post by rl3 »

chiefalchemist wrote: post #60
rl3 wrote: post #45

Ideas become better when refined. Sometimes over the course of years . You can assemble a larger composite idea under the umbrella of a single vision, comprised of many smaller ideas. There's of course a balance to be struck depending on the idea's scope and urgency. Both may change with refinement. Idea generation is both a learned skill and intrinsic to a person's circumstance and psychology. Ample unstructured tim…

> Ideas become better when refined. Agreed.This is why execution is more important than idea. Why? Because most ideas aren't born great. They evolve and progress. That's part of execution. The process of taking a good idea and make it great.

I think trying to say one is more important than the other is a false dichotomy. They are both very important.

It's true that ideas tend to dramatically evolve as a result of execution. Likewise execution affords an opportunity for refinement that simply isn't there prior. I'd argue it's a different kind of refinement though from what you get while you're still in the green field stage.

Thinking and research on their own—over the course of a very long period of time—offer insight that isn't easily gleaned under the high-stress environment of execution. A different kind of insight or refinement, if you will.

It's worth noting that there are entire professions where the majority of what they do is think. Physics and philosophy come to mind. Why thinking is valued so little in tech by contrast, I don't know.

Re: Idea Generation

#67

Post by chiefalchemist »

rl3 wrote: post #66
chiefalchemist wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ideas become better when refined. Agreed.This is why execution is more important than idea. Why? Because most ideas aren't born great. They evolve and progress. That's part of execution. The process of taking a good idea and make it great.

I think trying to say one is more important than the other is a false dichotomy. They are both very important. It's true that ideas tend to dramatically evolve as a result of execution. Likewise execution affords an opportunity for refinement that simply isn't there prior. I'd argue it's a different kind of refinement though from what you get while you're still in the green field stage. Thinking and research on their…

My benchmark: Good execution of a 7 idea will beat bad execution of a 10 idea.

As mentioned, the idea isn't static. The idea is more of a process. And processes are driven by (quality of) execution, and team.

I'm not dismissing the value of idea. But it's generally over-valued. You'll do better starting with a good idea and making it better than you will waiting for a great idea.

Re: Idea Generation

#68

Post by quickthrower2 »

OJFord wrote: post #47
bko wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's better to have 100 users love you than 1 million kinda like you. The true seed of scale is love, and you can't buy it, hack it, or game it. A product that is deeply loved is one that can scale Interview with Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn, Altman goes more into his reasoning [0] https://mastersofscale.com/sam-altman-why-customer-love-is-a...

If they're all paying the same, I'll take the million thanks. Obviously 'love' implies more attachment and longevity of subscription, but a million x even just once is still 10,000 hundred xs. But maybe that's just my 'if I started a company I wouldn't be thrilled at the thought of taking VC money' perspective talking.

You want to be Turbotax then!

Re: Idea Generation

#69

Post by paulsutter »

azinman2 wrote: post #63
npalli wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

new platform "used by a lot of small number of people" is usually the real trend. As new platforms are quirky and buggy only people who use it a lot can power though all the issues and guide you to a product that works for a large market. They also have enough emotional connection that they can evangelize your product to the wider market. The "used a little by a lot" people don't have the attachment or deep need to w…

What doesn't make sense to me about that is that the web & email starting out as 'used a little by a lot'. Over time, these not only became better (many innovations for web, mobile access for email), but also ingrained in our life and society. That then paved way for things like social networks that eventually became standard communications. I believe most major communications products seemed to have followed that tr…

Not at all. In 1980 email had a tiny market share but really strong usage by those who had accounts.

True story, DEC included a free mail program with VMS because some developer wrote it. And they were baffled when companies started ordering VAXes mainly to use for email.

Web was similar in 1993. Very few users, yet folks like Adam Curry left his job as a famous “VJ” at MTV to start a website, buying the unused domain mtv.com for the purpose (you can guess how that turned out). I mention this because he was a total norm who got enamored with the web when almost nobody used it.

And Bitcoin, well...

For actual numbers, here’s a graph of computer users since 1980:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EZI1TsJXYAAo9ES?format=jpg&name=...

Re: Idea Generation

#70

Post by RexetBlell »

azinman2 wrote: post #64
s_r_n wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dapps haven't gone away. I'd say that trend has evolved into DeFi, which seems to be growing quickly.

Genuine question: what apps/technology is growing quickly with DeFi that can't otherwise be practically executed (for whatever reason) outside of a blockchain? I've yet to see a killer example.

A perfect killer example is globally accessible prediction markets. They always get shut down by governments. Isn’t it crazy that you currently can’t place a bet on a horse race or a presidential election in the US?
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