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Idea Generation

blog.samaltman.com

31–40 of 146 posts

Re: Idea Generation

#31
post #24

> (By the way, it’s useful to get good at differentiating between real trends and fake trends. A key differentiator is if the new platform is used a lot by a small number of people, or used a little by a lot of people.) As a one-time founder, I feel embarrassed to have to ask this; but in the spirit of no-stupid-question and also that there's gotta be someone else wondering the same -- which one is the real trend and…

new platform "used by a lot of small number of people" is usually the real trend. As new platforms are quirky and buggy only people who use it a lot can power though all the issues and guide you to a product that works for a large market. They also have enough emotional connection that they can evangelize your product to the wider market.

The "used a little by a lot" people don't have the attachment or deep need to work through issues and they give up after some time. They also can't be bothered to evangelize for you.

Of course, sometimes there is no market beyond the small group. Even then, it is easier to make a business (revenue > cost) in the small "used a lot" market than the other case where people won't pay.

Re: Idea Generation

#32
ideas beget ideas. yeah, waves tectonic shifts are real. and hyper-iteration begets ideas. & filters good ideas from bad ones.

Re: Idea Generation

#33
Stay away from people who are world-weary and belittle your ambitions. Unfortunately, this is most of the world. But they hold on to the past, and you want to live in the future.

Here's an idea - if most people are world-weary (not true in my experience), maybe you should go and find out why and then try to figure out what you can do to make it less so (get therapy in your case Sam Altman).

What's your track record Sam Altman, besides burning through other people's money and thinking most people are world-weary and need to be distanced from?

Here's from his wiki:

In 2005, at age 19,[9] Altman co-founded and became CEO of Loopt,[10] a location-based social networking mobile application. After raising more than $30M in venture capital, Loopt was shut down in 2012 after failing to get traction.

So his track record is creating yet-another social-network, how original, burning through someone else's money and failing.

Please tell us more Sam, you've clearly proven yourself to be an original thinker and capable operator of burning through other people's cash.

Re: Idea Generation

#34

Stay away from people who are world-weary and belittle your ambitions. Unfortunately, this is most of the world. But they hold on to the past, and you want to live in the future. Here's an idea - if most people are world-weary (not true in my experience), maybe you should go and find out why and then try to figure out what you can do to make it less so (get therapy in your case Sam Altman). What's your track record S…

Sam Altman is clearly great at the one skill that matters (becoming a "made man"). I haven't been impressed by anything else from him.

If you want a YC person worth listening to, I recommend starting with Michael Seibel instead.

Re: Idea Generation

#35

I have always found that entire scenario very odd. How are you a start up founder if you don’t know what you want to start up? I always look at that like a soldier jacked up on adrenaline wearing an arsenal of ammunition ready to destroy the enemy having forgotten to ask who the enemy is or where they are. Lost. Maybe if they just start spraying ammo at everybody the enemy will suddenly make themselves known and some…

The problem with this way of thinking is that existing markets are probably efficient enough - meaning all easy ways to make a lot of money have already been exhausted. This means that any idea that you generate by encountering a problem and thinking of a solution is probably either too hard to implement or will generate relatively puny revenue stream (nothing to sneeze at, but probably not of much interest to VCs and founders chasing big bucks).

What's the alternative? To wait for tectonic shifts in overall environment and circumstances, look for vacant ecological niches and pounce when you see one. To the outside view this will look exactly like a founder who doesn't know what to start up.

Here is an example I like: John Carmack. The conventional view is that he is a brilliant game programmer (which is undoubtedly true). But the alternative point of view is that his shtick was to capitalize on the period of incredible advances in consumer hardware. Each of his games fully showcased what the best hardware of that time was capable of (order of magnitude more than the previous generation) which made them instant hits. Not coincidentally, he quit making games around the time this period of advancement stopped.

Here is a post by @defmacro making a similar point: http://www.defmacro.org/2015/02/25/startup-ideas.html

Re: Idea Generation

#37
post #24

> (By the way, it’s useful to get good at differentiating between real trends and fake trends. A key differentiator is if the new platform is used a lot by a small number of people, or used a little by a lot of people.) As a one-time founder, I feel embarrassed to have to ask this; but in the spirit of no-stupid-question and also that there's gotta be someone else wondering the same -- which one is the real trend and…

> It's better to have 100 users love you than 1 million kinda like you. The true seed of scale is love, and you can't buy it, hack it, or game it. A product that is deeply loved is one that can scale

Interview with Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn, Altman goes more into his reasoning [0]

https://mastersofscale.com/sam-altman-why-customer-love-is-a...

Re: Idea Generation

#38

Stay away from people who are world-weary and belittle your ambitions. Unfortunately, this is most of the world. But they hold on to the past, and you want to live in the future. Here's an idea - if most people are world-weary (not true in my experience), maybe you should go and find out why and then try to figure out what you can do to make it less so (get therapy in your case Sam Altman). What's your track record S…

Social networks were not in the "how original" category in 2005. Facebook was started in 2004 and was still restricted to college students when Loopt launched. Loopt was quite different (mainly about location rather than friend graph.) It was an idea worth trying.

Re: Idea Generation

#39
From my somewhat limited experience, working as a consultant (management, etc.) is great for identifying problems, and subsequently coming up with ideas (solutions).

Reason is that you work very closely with companies, often many different in the same sector, and get to see all the various aspects, quirks, and flaws at nearly every level of operation. Just the act of getting exposed to all this, can work as a great catalyst for ideas and brainstorming - much better (imo) than just sitting around and trying to think up something, where one can easily fall for the "solution looking for a problem" trap.

Now, unfortunately, most people can't just walk into those jobs - and you're not there to brainstorm solutions for every flaw you see. But if you ever get the chance to be in such a position, do try it out.

A lot of profitable entrepreneurship revolves around "boring" business problems.

Re: Idea Generation

#40
post #24

> (By the way, it’s useful to get good at differentiating between real trends and fake trends. A key differentiator is if the new platform is used a lot by a small number of people, or used a little by a lot of people.) As a one-time founder, I feel embarrassed to have to ask this; but in the spirit of no-stupid-question and also that there's gotta be someone else wondering the same -- which one is the real trend and…

at least for your specific example, I would argue that "facebook apps" never took off. facebook games did, but they are a qualitatively different class of application that just happened to use the same platform that the facebook apps did. multiplayer online games were always popular, and facebook happened to implement them well enough to catch on within the platform.
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