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SpaceX NASA returning human spaceflight to United States today (canceled)

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Re: SpaceX NASA returning human spaceflight to United States today (canceled)

#141
post #115
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course it is worth to explore space. It does not "deserve" to be explored, it just pays off. There is huge amount of knowledge and resources to be had. Of course robotic missions are better for exploration than manned mission. Manned missions costs so much we could do so many more robotic missions for the same cost. People are absolutely not required in space. We send people into space because we can and we want.…

> Of course robotic missions are better for exploration than manned mission. Manned missions costs so much we could do so many more robotic missions for the same cost. People are absolutely not required in space. Can you imagine being wrong on that? That people can and are cheaper than robots for certain important aspects? That accomplished space robot makers would disagree that robots are at least universally cheape…

People are not cheaper in space, by no means. Robotic things can be easily prepared well in advance, on planet Earth, where sitting a bunch of programmers by the computer is much cheaper than training and sending actual bag of mostly water into space.

If you are still not convinced, we have sent a robotic missions to almost every larger body in solar system, yet we are excited today we can send two people to LEO. Just look at costs involved...

Humans cannot do anything in space without tools and tools in space is a bunch of electronic signals that are either processed locally or sent to Earth. The things people do in space is either trivia (yeah, have fun with this ball of water in zero-G) or studying behavior of human body and mind in space to be able to send more humans to do the same.

We have learned how to do very complicated things without humans involved. Hovering a craft in Mars atmosphere? Orienting craft with extreme precision? Running complicated manouvers at the ends of solar system?

Look at missions which are only possible because we can send a craft on decades' long journey. If people were necessary we would not be able to do anything of that. Any human mission is limited to short hops from Earth to Moon, maybe Mars, until we advance our science and technology way, way past current level.

Sending people to space isn't really advancing science (except studying how people fare in space). It is another token achievement. There isn't physics we are learning IN ORDER TO or BECAUSE we are sending people to space. Physics is advanced by physicists. There might be some technological advancement necessary to send humans that would not be necessary for robotic missions, that's all, really.

Take a close look at what people in space are doing. Find anything that requires humans in space?

Don't get me wrong. I am all for human presence in space. Just be realistic about why we are doing it.

Re: SpaceX NASA returning human spaceflight to United States today (canceled)

#142
post #28
post #16

The cold war is back, the fashion is back and out of all the things that are back I am glad that the USA is back in space flights. Wish you the best luck and hope that this will lead to some serious competition. Soyuz is great but we need to do more as species.

> do more as species Space exploration and exploitation is awesome, but shouldn't the first items on the "do more as species" todo list be about taking care of earth?

There are over 7 billion people on the planet. We can do a few things at once.

Re: SpaceX NASA returning human spaceflight to United States today (canceled)

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the first manned launch on the Dragon platform. There have been a number of unmanned launches and tests, but no where near as many as on Soyuz. A quick search through Wikipedia shows 140+ manned Soyuz launches, and around 20 total for the SpaceX Dragon. Note those numbers are for the spacecraft, not the booster (the Soyuz platform has both the spacecraft and booster named Soyuz, SpaceX has the Dragon spacecraft…

Exactly. The odds are not what I'd like them to be.

While I agree the risks are higher than Soyuz, there has to be an acceptable risk threshold, in order to build the safety record of a new platform.

Both the Saturn 5 and Space Shuttle had far fewer unmanned launches than Dragon, before the first manned flight. The Soyuz booster started as an ICBM, and thus has a harder to compare track record. Here's a graphic for the booster family historically: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_R-7_launches

Re: SpaceX NASA returning human spaceflight to United States today (canceled)

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. I'm so nervous, this seems high risk.

For some context they certified the Dragan capsule with a LOC (loss of crew) rating of 1 in 270, which is more than double what the shuttle had (IIRC it ranged from 1 in 10 for the first shuttle flight to 1 in 90 towards the end of the career)

Mmm. Was that risk evaluation in house?

I hope for the best too

Re: SpaceX NASA returning human spaceflight to United States today (canceled)

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the first manned launch on the Dragon platform. There have been a number of unmanned launches and tests, but no where near as many as on Soyuz. A quick search through Wikipedia shows 140+ manned Soyuz launches, and around 20 total for the SpaceX Dragon. Note those numbers are for the spacecraft, not the booster (the Soyuz platform has both the spacecraft and booster named Soyuz, SpaceX has the Dragon spacecraft…

Exactly. The odds are not what I'd like them to be.

So, never flying on new vehicle or flying a vehicle uncrewed for 40 years is the only option you consider save?

That seems like incredible pessimism to me.

Re: SpaceX NASA returning human spaceflight to United States today (canceled)

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

High risk relative to?

It's the first manned launch on the Dragon platform. There have been a number of unmanned launches and tests, but no where near as many as on Soyuz. A quick search through Wikipedia shows 140+ manned Soyuz launches, and around 20 total for the SpaceX Dragon. Note those numbers are for the spacecraft, not the booster (the Soyuz platform has both the spacecraft and booster named Soyuz, SpaceX has the Dragon spacecraft…

This is the Dragon 2, it has flown twice, once to the Station and back. A second time where the rocket was blown up to test the in-flight abort system.

It is pretty different from the 20 Dragons used on CRS.

Re: SpaceX NASA returning human spaceflight to United States today (canceled)

#150

Last time I was interested in space was the Mars Lander. Going to ISS is easy afaik but when are we ever going to try landing on the moon again (don't even talk about Mars).

> Going to ISS is easy afaik

Given that only 3 nations in history have produce anything that could potentially do it, that statement seems like utter lunacy.

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